Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability-31xc1cf4d3.pdf

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ~14.5 ka.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/325/5941/710.full.pdf

The Last Glacial Maximum.

▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

/pdf/fire-in-the-earth-system-481yvwaoo1.pdf

Fire in the Earth System

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated.

Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility

. We performed detailed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 m of firn at Summit, Greenland. Using a small snow gun, a thin snow layer was formed from 2H-enriched water over a 6 × 6 m2 area. We followed the diffusion process, quantified as the increase of the δ2H diffusion length, over a 4-year period, by retrieving the layer once per year by drilling a firn core and slicing it into 1 cm layers and measuring the δ2H signal of these layers. We compared our experimental findings to calculations based on the model by Johnsen et al. (2000) and found substantial differences. The diffusion length in our experiments increased much less over the years than in the model. We discuss the possible causes for this discrepancy and conclude that several aspects of the diffusion process in firn are still poorly constrained, in particular the tortuosity.

/pdf/constraints-on-the-d-2-h-diffusion-rate-in-firn-from-field-3ebizrr2jp.pdf

Constraints on the δ 2 H diffusion rate in firn from field measurements at Summit, Greenland

In the radiocarbon accelerator mass spectrometry ( (super 14) C AMS) analysis of gases obtained in a dry extraction from a 52-m Antarctic ice core, we observed (super 14) CO (sub 2) and (super 14) CO concentrations decreasing with depth. The concentrations are explained in terms of in-situ production by neutrons and captured muons in ablating ice. The ratio of the (super 14) CO (sub 2) concentration to that of (super 14) CO has been found to be constant at 1.9+ or -0.3. The ablation rates obtained of 42+ or -18 cm.yr (super -1) and 40+ or -13 cm.yr (super -1) for the neutron and muon components, respectively, are about three times higher than observed from stake readings. The discrepancy may point to an incomplete extraction of the dry extraction method. Using the constant ratio in (super 14) CO (sub 2) and (super 14) CO concentrations we correct for the in-situ component in the trapped (super 14) CO (sub 2) and deduce an age of 10,300+ or -900 BP for the ice core.

/pdf/in-situ-radiocarbon-production-by-neutrons-and-muons-in-an-42fuysi6cm.pdf

In-situ radiocarbon production by neutrons and muons in an Antarctic blue ice field at Scharffenbergbotnen: A status report

Greenland [in "State of the Climate in 2010"]

A still open question is how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing (equilibrium climate sensitivity S) is depending on background climate. We here bring paleo-data based evidence on the state-dependency of S by using CO2 proxy data together with model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years. We find that the land-ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcings depends on the CO2 data set used. Over the last 2 million years the combined S_[CO2,LI] from CO2 and land-ice albedo forcing is state-dependent and during interglacials at least twice as high as during glacials, thus CO2 doubling leads to an interglacial warming of 5 K. In the Pliocene data uncertainties prevents a well-supported calculation, but our analysis suggests that S_[CO2,LI] during a land-ice free northern hemisphere was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene.

State dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years

Since the launch in 2002 of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, several estimates of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) have been produced. To obtain ice mass changes, the GRACE data need to be corrected for the effect of deformation changes of the Earth's crust. Recently, a new method has been proposed where ice mass changes and bedrock changes are simultaneously solved. Results show bedrock subsidence over almost the entirety of Greenland in combination with ice mass loss which is only half of the currently standing estimates. This subsidence can be an elastic response, but it may however also be a delayed response to past changes. In this study we test whether these subsidence patterns are consistent with ice dynamical modeling results. We use a 3-D ice sheet–bedrock model with a surface mass balance forcing based on a mass balance gradient approach to study the pattern and magnitude of bedrock changes in Greenland. Different mass balance forcings are used. Simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum yield a bedrock delay with respect to the mass balance forcing of nearly 3000 yr and an average uplift at present of 0.3 mm yr −1 . The spatial pattern of bedrock changes shows a small central subsidence as well as more intense uplift in the south. These results are not compatible with the gravity based reconstructions showing a subsidence with a maximum in central Greenland, thereby questioning whether the claim of halving of the ice mass change is justified.

/pdf/an-ice-flow-modeling-perspective-on-bedrock-adjustment-5apev7xesd.pdf

R. S. W. van de Wal

Papers

Constraints on the δ 2 H diffusion rate in firn from field measurements at Summit, Greenland

In-situ radiocarbon production by neutrons and muons in an Antarctic blue ice field at Scharffenbergbotnen: A status report

Greenland [in "State of the Climate in 2010"]

State dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years

An ice flow modeling perspective on bedrock adjustment patterns of the Greenland ice sheet