世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper Climate Change and Water draws together and evaluates the information in IPCC Assessment and Special Reports concerning the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources – their availability, quality, use and management. It takes into account current and projected regional key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and water. Its objectives are:

/pdf/climate-change-and-water-2dpc0zbpsj.pdf

Climate change and water.

https://saludsindanio.org/sites/default/files/documents-files/151/Climate_Chg_Human_Health.pdf

Climate change and human health : present and future risks

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(09)60935-1.pdf

Managing the health effects of climate change

. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

/pdf/the-scenario-model-intercomparison-project-scenariomip-for-23lr250wsy.pdf

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. Important differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843

Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review

Floods are the most common natural disaster in both developed and developing countries, and they are occasionally of devastating impact, as the floods in China in 1959 and Bangladesh in 1974 and the tsunami in Southeast Asia in December 2004 show (1). Their impacts on health vary between populations for reasons relating to population vulnerability and type of flood event (2–5). Under future climate change, altered patterns of precipitation and sea level rise are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of floods in many regions of the world (6). In this paper, we review the epidemiologic evidence of flood-related health impacts. The specific objectives were as follows:

to summarize and critically appraise evidence of published studies, covering flood events in all regions of the world, and

to identify knowledge gaps relevant to the reduction of public health impacts.

/pdf/global-health-impacts-of-floods-epidemiologic-evidence-3pm0nzw84a.pdf

Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence

BACKGROUND: This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. METHODS: The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, Sao Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. RESULTS: Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. CONCLUSIONS: Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations. Language: en

/pdf/international-study-of-temperature-heat-and-urban-mortality-478ydttrrg.pdf

International study of temperature,heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project

https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc226726/m2/1/high_res_d/WHO_SDE_PHE_99.4.pdf

El Niño and health.

Public health measures need to be implemented to prevent heat-related illness and mortality in the community and in institutions that care for elderly or vulnerable people. Heat health warning systems (HHWS) link public health actions to meteorological forecasts of dangerous weather. Such systems are being implemented in Europe in the absence of strong evidence of the effectiveness of specific measures in reducing heatwave mortality or morbidity. Passive dissemination of heat avoidance advice is likely to be ineffective given the current knowledge of high-risk groups. HHWS should be linked to the active identification and care of high-risk individuals. The systems require clear lines of responsibility for the multiple agencies involved (including the weather service, and the local health and social care agencies). Other health interventions are necessary in relation to improved housing, and the care of the elderly at home and vulnerable people in institutions. European countries need to learn from each other how to prepare for and effectively cope with heatwaves in the future. Including evaluation criteria in the design of heatwave early warning systems will help ensure effective and efficient system operation.

https://smhs.gwu.edu/oso/sites/oso/files/heat.pdf

R. Sari Kovats

Papers

Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review

Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence

International study of temperature,heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project

El Niño and health.

Heatwaves and public health in Europe