THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Watershed models are powerful tools for simulating the effect of watershed processes and management on soil and water resources. However, no comprehensive guidance is available to facilitate model evaluation in terms of the accuracy of simulated data compared to measured flow and constituent values. Thus, the objectives of this research were to: (1) determine recommended model evaluation techniques (statistical and graphical), (2) review reported ranges of values and corresponding performance ratings for the recommended statistics, and (3) establish guidelines for model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations; all of these objectives focus on simulation of streamflow and transport of sediment and nutrients. These objectives were achieved with a thorough review of relevant literature on model application and recommended model evaluation methods. Based on this analysis, we recommend that three quantitative statistics, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), in addition to the graphical techniques, be used in model evaluation. The following model evaluation performance ratings were established for each recommended statistic. In general, model simulation can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.50 and RSR < 0.70, and if PBIAS + 25% for streamflow, PBIAS + 55% for sediment, and PBIAS + 70% for N and P. For PBIAS, constituent-specific performance ratings were determined based on uncertainty of measured data. Additional considerations related to model evaluation guidelines are also discussed. These considerations include: single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude. A case study illustrating the application of the model evaluation guidelines is also provided.

Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a continuation of nearly 30 years of modeling efforts conducted by the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS). SWAT has gained international acceptance as a robust interdisciplinary watershed modeling tool as evidenced by international SWAT conferences, hundreds of SWAT-related papers presented at numerous other scientific meetings, and dozens of articles published in peer-reviewed journals. The model has also been adopted as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) software package and is being used by many U.S. federal and state agencies, including the USDA within the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). At present, over 250 peer-reviewed published articles have been identified that report SWAT applications, reviews of SWAT components, or other research that includes SWAT. Many of these peer-reviewed articles are summarized here according to relevant application categories such as streamflow calibration and related hydrologic analyses, climate change impacts on hydrology, pollutant load assessments, comparisons with other models, and sensitivity analyses and calibration techniques. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented, and recommended research needs for SWAT are also provided.

/pdf/the-soil-and-water-assessment-tool-historical-development-4e4d97tdfq.pdf

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a continuation of nearly 30 years of modeling efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service. SWAT has gained international acceptance as a robust interdisciplinary watershed modeling tool, as evidenced by international SWAT conferences, hundreds of SWAT-related papers presented at numerous scientific meetings, and dozens of articles published in peer-reviewed journals. The model has also been adopted as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point & Nonpoint Sources) software package and is being used by many U.S. federal and state agencies, including the USDA within the Conservation Effects Assessment Project. At present, over 250 peer-reviewed, published articles have been identified that report SWAT applications, reviews of SWAT components, or other research that includes SWAT. Many of these peer-reviewed articles are summarized here according to relevant application categories such as streamflow calibration and related hydrologic analyses, climate change impacts on hydrology, pollutant load assessments, comparisons with other models, and sensitivity analyses and calibration techniques. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented, and recommended research needs for SWAT are provided.

Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions, The

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1192&context=scipapers

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

While some of the world's most productive agriculture is on artificially drained soils, drainage is increasingly perceived as a major contributor to detrimental off‐site environmental impacts. Howe...

Hydrologic and water quality impacts of agricultural drainage

A water management model for shallow water table soils.

The Penman-Monteith, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, Turc, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration (REF-ET) at three sites in eastern North Carolina. The Penman-Monteith method with grass as the reference crop was selected as the standard of comparison for evaluating the other five methods. Good correlation was found between the REF-ET values estimated by each of the five radiation- and temperature-based methods and the Penman-Monteith method, although there were some differences. Based on the statistical analyses, the methods that performed the best in estimating daily and seasonal Penman-Monteith REF-ET at each location were recommended. Reliability of the radiation methods was also evaluated when data from another site were used. Penman-Monteith estimates were used to develop correction factors for their potential use in the temperature-based Thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods at each location and in the study areas in general.

Comparison of methods for estimating REF-ET

DRAINMOD is a process-based, distributed, field-scale model developed to describe the hydrology of poorly drained and artificially drained soils. The model is based on water balances in the soil profile, on the field surface, and, in some cases, in the drainage system. This article briefly describes the model and the algorithms that are used to quantify the various hydrologic components. Inputs for soil properties, site parameters, weather data, and crop characteristics required in the application of the model are presented and discussed with respect to their role in calibration. Methods for determining field effective values of key inputs to the model, either independently or as a part of the calibration process, are demonstrated in a case study. The case study involved calibrating DRAINMOD with two years of field data for a subsurface drained agricultural field in eastern North Carolina, followed by testing or validation of the model with two additional years of data. Performance statistics indicated that the model with calibrated input data accurately predicted daily water table depths with Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (EF) values of 0.68 and 0.72, daily drainage rates (EF = 0.73 and 0.49), and monthly drainage volumes (EF = 0.87 and 0.77) for the two-year validation period.

DRAINMOD: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation

http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/ja_sun031.pdf

R. W. Skaggs

Papers

Hydrologic and water quality impacts of agricultural drainage

A water management model for shallow water table soils.

Comparison of methods for estimating REF-ET

DRAINMOD: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation

Energy and water balance of two contrasting loblolly pine plantations on the lower coastal plain of North Carolina, USA