The persistence of endangered species may depend on the fate of a very small number of individual animals. In situ conservation alone may sometimes be insufficient. In these instances, the International Union for Conservation of Nature provides guidelines for ex situ conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) indicates how ex situ management can support the CBD's objectives by providing insurance policies for species. The circumstances that justify its use are uncertain. To evaluate the current in situ extinction risk and ex situ management of 43 critically endangered species of mammalian megafauna, we used nonmetric multidimensional scaling and geopolitical variables related to governance, economics, and national policy within their extant ranges. We then fitted generalized additive models to assess the contribution of each variable to the ordination. Fifteen (almost one-third) of the world's terrestrial mammalian megafauna are not the subject of any ex situ management. Seventy-three percent of these taxa occur in areas characterized by political uncertainty, such as border zones or areas affected by armed conflicts, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. A further 23% of taxa in ex situ programs do not meet sustainability criteria for inbreeding avoidance. Strategic conservation planning, such as the One Plan approach, may improve ex situ management for these taxa. Given the escalating trend in threats afflicting megafauna, ex situ management should be considered more rigorously, particularly in politically unstable regions, to achieve CBD Target 12 (prevent extinction of threatened species).

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Ex situ management as insurance against extinction of mammalian megafauna in an uncertain world.

One common approach to assigning conservation priorities during the current biodiversity crisis is to identify and direct efforts to high profile, vulnerable taxa, and important biodiversity areas. We addressed the first issue by assessing the comparison between conservation status and habitat suitability under differing climate change scenarios for sixteen species of five amphibian families (Pelobatidae, Bufonidae, Alytidae, Hylidae and Ranidae) distributed on both sides of the Gibraltar Strait, with the aim of verify whether potentially sensible species under climatic change scenarios are or not considered at risk presently in the IUCN current categories. We have addressed this with an environmental niche modelling algorithm (MaxEnt) and projecting the outputs in four future climatic change scenarios. Our results demonstrate that climatic niches of some species may currently match their conservation category, with Pelobates varaldii having the narrowest distribution and being the more endangered species, but not all responses to predicted climatic change scenarios are related to conservation status. Some suggest notable changes in potential climatic habitats, with both substantial increase (7 species) and decrease (5 species) represented. Threatened species such as P. varaldii could be climatically favored whereas currently more abundant species could maintain, increase, or reduce their habitat distribution. These results have implications for current conservation strategies, and suggest that this approach deserves consideration as part of any species or habitat conservation strategy in the future.

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Climate change challenges IUCN conservation priorities: a test with western Mediterranean amphibians

Species distribution models are widely used in conservation planning, but obtaining the necessary occurrence data can be challenging, particularly for rare species. In these cases, citizen science may provide insight into species distributions. To understand the distribution of the newly described and Critically Endangered Amazona lilacina, we collated species observations and reliable eBird records from 2010–2020. We combined these with environmental predictors and either randomly generated background points or absence points generated from eBird checklists, to build distribution models using MaxEnt. We also conducted interviews with people local to the species’ range to gather community-sourced occurrence data. We grouped these data according to perceived expertise of the observer, based on the ability to identify A. lilacina and its distinguishing features, knowledge of its ecology, overall awareness of parrot biodiversity, and the observation type. We evaluated all models using AUC and Tjur R2. Field data models built using background points performed better than those using eBird absence points (AUC = 0.80 ± 0.02, Tjur R2 = 0.46 ± 0.01 compared to AUC = 0.78 ± 0.03, Tjur R2 = 0.43 ± 0.21). The best performing community data model used presence records from people who were able recognise a photograph of A. lilacina and correctly describe its distinguishing physical or behavioural characteristics (AUC = 0.84 ± 0.05, Tjur R2 = 0.51± 0.01). There was up to 92% overlap between the field data and community data models, which when combined, predicted 17,772 km2 of suitable habitat. Use of community knowledge offers a cost-efficient method to obtain data for species distribution modelling; we offer recommendations on how to assess its performance and present a final map of potential distribution for A. lilacina.

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The value of local community knowledge in species distribution modelling for a threatened Neotropical parrot

Rewilding is a growing conservation concept that seeks to enhance biodiversity and improve ecosystem functioning. When rewilding includes the reintroduction of large carnivores to landscapes from which they have been extirpated, assessing the societal impacts and acceptability is as, if not more, important than assessing the ecological feasibility (in: Smith et al, Application to Natural England for the trial reintroduction of lynx to England, Lynx UK Trust, Kielder, 2015a, Application for the trial reintroduction of lynx to Scotland, Lynx UK Trust, Kielder, 2015b; Johnson and Greenwood 2020). We caution that not including the human dimension when modelling the feasibility of a particular conservation action will produce flawed results by masking potentially low public acceptance and conflicts with particular stakeholders. Furthermore, repeated failure to work within a socio-ecological system (SES) framework threatens to alienate key stakeholders, particularly when NGOs propose trial reintroductions prior to any rigorous consideration of the human dimension. When the interests of one party (e.g. NGOs or conservationists) are perceived to be asserted over the interests of others (e.g. small-livestock farmers), the stage is set for a conservation conflict. Conservation conflicts not only hamper worthwhile conservation initiatives but drive a wedge between key stakeholders that need to agree on a clear long-term conservation and management plan before the state will accede to such proposals.

Rewilding the world’s large carnivores without neglecting the human dimension : A response to reintroducing the Eurasian lynx to southern Scotland, England and Wales

Spatial and foraging ecology of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) has been well recognized, however due to the distinct taxonomic position and geographic isolation of its Balkan population, it is important to learn and compare its ecology to other populations of this felid. Therefore, the paper offers the first ever investigation into the spatial and foraging ecology of this predator. To that aim, we used modern GPS/GSM telemetry methods, allowing proper research of animal spatial requirements and diet preferences. Individuals were captured using walk-through, double-door box-traps and foot-snares placed on fresh lynx kills. Average home range size of males is 373 km2 (95\% MCP) and 400 km2 (0.7 Kernel), while the female’s home range is 119 km2 (95\% MCP) and 108 km2 (0.7 Kernel). GPS clusters showed prey remains of 153 kills from five different species: roe deer, chamois, brown hare, red fox and marten. Data collected for the Balkan lynx suggest lower kill rates, probably associated with lower ungulate densities in the study area compared to most of Central Europe, also indicated by the relatively long search time. Although Eurasian lynx can adapt to lower ungulate prey densities by increasing hunting effort, changing spatial organization or switching to smaller prey, this, in turn, can have adverse demographic effects on the critically endangered Balkan population. Using GPS telemetry, we provided first insight into the space use of this small population, and show that the spatial and foraging ecology of the Balkan lynx appear similar to other European populations of this species, especially those from Central Europe with similar home range size and principal prey preference.

First insight into the spatial and foraging ecology of the critically endangered Balkan lynx ( Lynx lynx balcanicus , Buresh 1941)

With an estimated < 50 adult individuals remaining, the Critically Endangered Balkan lynx Lynx lynx balcanicus is one of the rarest, most threatened and least-studied large carnivores. To identify priority conservation areas and actions for the subspecies, during 2006–2014 we conducted 1,374 questionnaire surveys throughout the potential range of the Balkan lynx to (1) evaluate human–lynx interactions and identify potential threats, and (2) determine the probability of site use in 207 grid cells through occupancy modelling. Human–lynx interactions were related mainly to poaching of lynx, and damage to livestock by lynx. Poaching was intense throughout the potential range of the subspecies, apparently having affected 50–100% of the total estimated extant population. Damage to livestock was recorded only in relation to sheep, mainly in the southern part of the lynx's potential range. Occupancy modelling indicated 108 grid cells with high probability of site use, which was affected mainly by increased terrain ruggedness and reduced forest cover. Based on the combined results of our study we identified five priority areas for conservation, as well as in situ habitat protection, community participation in the conservation of the subspecies, and the improvement and implementation of the existing legal framework as the priority conservation actions for the Balkan lynx.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F6A07DB92A1D32EB3057E641AF52C43D/S0030605318000492a.pdf/div-class-title-using-questionnaire-surveys-and-occupancy-modelling-to-identify-conservation-priorities-for-the-critically-endangered-balkan-lynx-span-class-italic-lynx-lynx-balcanicus-span-div.pdf

Rafet Elezi

Papers

Using questionnaire surveys and occupancy modelling to identify conservation priorities for the Critically Endangered Balkan lynx Lynx lynx balcanicus