https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/preview/1797952/1-s2.0-S0140673618322797-main.pdf

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61729-2.pdf

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/104804/2/hdl_104804.pdf

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Dynamics and control of antibiotic resistance in structured metapopulations.

Superbugs is an immensely readable description of the challenges that encourage overuse of antibiotics and discourage new drug development.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/360/6387/387.1.full.pdf

Incentivizing responsible antibiotic use

Controlling Avian Influe nza in Chickens

Background Despite significant global progress in reducing neonatal mortality, bacterial sepsis remains a major cause of neonatal deaths. Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae) is the leading pathogen globally underlying cases of neonatal sepsis and is frequently resistant to antibiotic treatment regimens recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), including first-line therapy with ampicillin and gentamicin, second-line therapy with amikacin and ceftazidime, and meropenem. Maternal vaccination to prevent neonatal infection could reduce the burden of K. pneumoniae neonatal sepsis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but the potential impact of vaccination remains poorly quantified. We estimated the potential impact of such vaccination on cases and deaths of K. pneumoniae neonatal sepsis and project the global effects of routine immunization of pregnant women with the K. pneumoniae vaccine as antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increases. Methods and findings We developed a Bayesian mixture-modeling framework to estimate the effects of a hypothetical K. pneumoniae maternal vaccine with 70% efficacy administered with coverage equivalent to that of the maternal tetanus vaccine on neonatal sepsis infections and mortality. To parameterize our model, we used data from 3 global studies of neonatal sepsis and/or mortality—with 2,330 neonates who died with sepsis surveilled from 2016 to 2020 undertaken in 18 mainly LMICs across all WHO regions (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Uganda, Brazil, Italy, Greece, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, China, and Vietnam). Within these studies, 26.95% of fatal neonatal sepsis cases were culture-positive for K. pneumoniae. We analyzed 9,070 K. pneumoniae genomes from human isolates gathered globally from 2001 to 2020 to quantify the temporal rate of acquisition of AMR genes in K. pneumoniae isolates to predict the future number of drug-resistant cases and deaths that could be averted by vaccination. Resistance rates to carbapenems are increasing most rapidly and 22.43% [95th percentile Bayesian credible interval (CrI): 5.24 to 41.42] of neonatal sepsis deaths are caused by meropenem-resistant K. pneumoniae. Globally, we estimate that maternal vaccination could avert 80,258 [CrI: 18,084 to 189,040] neonatal deaths and 399,015 [CrI: 334,523 to 485,442] neonatal sepsis cases yearly worldwide, accounting for more than 3.40% [CrI: 0.75 to 8.01] of all neonatal deaths. The largest relative benefits are in Africa (Sierra Leone, Mali, Niger) and South-East Asia (Bangladesh) where vaccination could avert over 6% of all neonatal deaths. Nevertheless, our modeling only considers country-level trends in K. pneumoniae neonatal sepsis deaths and is unable to consider within-country variability in bacterial prevalence that may impact the projected burden of sepsis. Conclusions A K. pneumoniae maternal vaccine could have widespread, sustained global benefits as AMR in K. pneumoniae continues to increase.

/pdf/global-regional-and-national-estimates-of-the-impact-of-a-7q4x0re9.pdf

Global, regional, and national estimates of the impact of a maternal Klebsiella pneumoniae vaccine: A Bayesian modeling analysis

Introduction Mettre en place des programmes de bon usage des antibiotiques dans tous les hopitaux est essentiel pour lutter contre l’antibioresistance. Une liste des mesures devant imperativement faire partie de ces programmes n’a ete etablie qu’en Europe, aux Etats-Unis et en Australie. L’objectif de ce travail etait d’identifier et valider avec une methode Delphi les mesures essentielles aux programmes de bon usage des antibiotiques qui peuvent etre applicables dans tous les hopitaux au niveau mondial. Materiels et methodes Une revue de la litterature a ete effectuee a partir d’une recherche Medline et sur les sites internet des principales organisations nationales et internationales afin d’identifier toutes les mesures decrites (core elements et checklist items). Un groupe d’experts a evalue chaque mesure identifiee en repondant a deux reprises a un questionnaire en ligne. Les mesures selectionnees par ≥ 80 % des experts etaient retenues des le premier questionnaire, celles selectionnees par 70–79 % des experts etaient reevaluees lors du deuxieme questionnaire et les mesures selectionnees par  Resultats La revue de la litterature a identifie 48 references, a partir desquelles 7 core elements (type de strategie, e.g. Formation) et 29 checklist items (mesure precise au sein de la strategie, e.g. Formation des prescripteurs) ont ete recueillis. Quinze experts (Amerique du Nord = 2, Amerique latine et du Sud = 2, Europe = 5, Afrique = 2, Asie = 3, Australie = 1) ont participe a la procedure de consensus formalise. Au final, tous les 7 core elements ont ete retenus et 29 checklist items ont ete selectionnes (28 des 29 identifies initialement, + un item suggere par les experts). Conclusion Nous avons valide des standards minimaux qui peuvent etre applicables au niveau international pour les programmes de bon usage des antibiotiques hospitaliers. Ce travail peut aider chaque pays, y compris les pays aux ressources limitees, a developper des recommandations nationales.

Ramanan Laxminarayan

Papers

Dynamics and control of antibiotic resistance in structured metapopulations.

Incentivizing responsible antibiotic use

Controlling Avian Influe nza in Chickens

Global, regional, and national estimates of the impact of a maternal Klebsiella pneumoniae vaccine: A Bayesian modeling analysis

Mesures essentielles aux programmes de bon usage des antibiotiques au niveau international