Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.

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Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species

The environmental food crisis: the environment’s role in averting future food crises. A UNEP rapid response assessment

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

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Will climate change promote future invasions

The round goby Neogobius melanostomus is one of the most wide-ranging invasive fish on earth, with substantial introduced populations within the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, the Baltic Sea and several major European rivers. Rapid expansion and deleterious ecosystem effects have motivated extensive research on this species; here this research is synthesized. Maps of the global distribution are provided and the invasion history of N. melanostomus, which spread more rapidly at first in North America, but has undergone substantial expansion over the past decade in the Baltic Sea, is summarized. Meta-analyses comparing their size at age, diet, competitors and predators in North American and European ecosystems are provided. Size at age is region specific, with saline habitats typically supporting larger and faster growing individuals than fresh water. Neogobius melanostomus prey differs substantially between regions, demonstrating a capacity to adapt to locally abundant food sources. Neogobius melanostomus comprise at least 50% of the diet of eight taxa in at least one site or life stage; in total, 16 predator taxa are documented from the Laurentian Great Lakes v. five from Eurasia. Invasive N. melanostomus are the only common forage fish to heavily exploit mussels in the Laurentian Great Lakes and the Baltic Sea, facilitating the transfer of energy from mussels to higher trophic levels in both systems. Neogobius melanostomus morphology, life history, reproduction, habitat preferences, environmental tolerances, parasites, environmental effects, sampling strategies and management are also discussed. Neogobius melanostomus inhabit a wide range of temperate freshwater and brackish-water ecosystems and will probably continue to spread via ballast water, accidental bait release and natural dispersal worldwide. Climate change will probably enhance N. melanostomus expansion by elevating water temperatures closer to its energetic optimum of 26° C. Future research needs are presented; most pressing are evaluating the economic effects of N. melanostomus invasion, determining long-term population level effects of egg predation on game-fish recruitment and comparing several variables (density, ecological effects morphology and life history) among invaded ecosystems. This review provides a central reference as researchers continue studying N. melanostomus, often as examples for advancing basic ecology and invasion biology.

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Twenty years of invasion: a review of round goby Neogobius melanostomus biology, spread and ecological implications.

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

/pdf/securing-the-promise-of-nanotechnologies-towards-1tyibi9eg0.pdf

Securing the promise of nanotechnologies: towards transatlantic regulatory cooperation. Report

https://dkingweb.cbl.umces.edu/Porter%20Fisheries%20Observer%20Article_Marine%20Policy.pdf

Fisheries observers as enforcement assets: Lessons from the North Pacific

Biofuels are being pursued for their potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits, among other reasons. In order to maximize productivity, avoid food–fuel conflicts, and minimize GHG emissions, many advanced biofuel feedstock crops, such as those desired by the aviation community, are under consideration based on traits, such as high biomass and/or seed production, tolerance of marginal cultivation conditions, and short generation times, that may also be predictors of potential invasiveness risk. Biofuel-related invasion risks can be mitigated through careful feedstock crop selection and cultivation techniques developed from the invasion science literature. Existing voluntary best practices and some state and federal regulatory requirements in the United States recommend and/or require the use of such risk mitigation strategies. However, other policies and programs allow or provide incentives for biofuel production without conditions requiring the use of these strategies. We have synthesized informat...

/pdf/global-approaches-to-addressing-biofuel-related-invasive-5g3bfuwgmd.pdf

Read Porter

Papers

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

Securing the promise of nanotechnologies: towards transatlantic regulatory cooperation. Report

Fisheries observers as enforcement assets: Lessons from the North Pacific

Global approaches to addressing biofuel-related invasive species risks and incorporation into U.S. laws and policies

Marine spatial planning in Barbuda: A social, ecological, geographic, and legal case study