Showing papers by "Richard S. Johannes published in 2008"

The early prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a large population-based study

Abstract: Background: Identification of patients at risk for mortality early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an important step in improving outcome. Methods: Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP. The scoring system was derived on data collected from 17 992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000–2001. The new scoring system was validated on data collected from 18 256 AP cases from 177 hospitals in 2004–2005. The accuracy of the scoring system for prediction of mortality was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the new scoring system was further validated by comparing its predictive accuracy with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II. Results: CART analysis identified five variables for prediction of in-hospital mortality. One point is assigned for the presence of each of the following during the first 24 h: blood urea nitrogen (BUN) >25 mg/dl; impaired mental status; systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); age >60 years; or the presence of a pleural effusion (BISAP). Mortality ranged from >20% in the highest risk group to Conclusions: A new mortality-based prognostic scoring system for use in AP has been derived and validated. The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality.

The early prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis : a large population-based study. Commentary

Abstract: Background: Identification of patients at risk for mortality early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an important step in improving outcome. Methods: Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP. The scoring system was derived on data collected from 17 992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000-2001. The new scoring system was validated on data collected from 18 256 AP cases from 177 hospitals in 2004-2005. The accuracy of the scoring system for prediction of mortality was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the new scoring system was further validated by comparing its predictive accuracy with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II. Results: CART analysis identified five variables for prediction of in-hospital mortality. One point is assigned for the presence of each of the following during the first 24 h: blood urea nitrogen (BUN) >25 mg/dl; impaired mental status; systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); age >60 years; or the presence of a pleural effusion (BISAP). Mortality ranged from >20% in the highest risk group to <1% in the lowest risk group. In the validation cohort, the BISAP AUC was 0.82 (95% Cl 0.79 to 0.84) versus APACHE II AUC of 0.83 (95% Cl 0.80 to 0.85). Conclusions: A new mortality-based prognostic scoring system for use in AP has been derived and validated. The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality.

Reductions in mortality associated with intensive public reporting of hospital outcomes.

Abstract: It is unclear whether public reporting of hospital and physician performance has improved outcomes for the conditions being reported. We studied the effect of intensive public reporting on hospital mortality for 6 high-frequency, high-mortality medical conditions. Patients in Pennsylvania were matched to patients in other states with varying public reporting environments using propensity score methods. The effect of public reporting was estimated using a difference in differences approach. Patients treated at hospitals subjected to intensive public reporting had significantly lower odds of in-hospital mortality when compared with similar patients treated at hospitals in environments with no public reporting or only limited reporting. Overall, the 2000-2003 in-hospital mortality odds ratio for Pennsylvania patients versus non-Pennsylvania patients ranged from 0.59 to 0.79 across 6 clinical conditions (all P < .0001). For the same comparison using the 1997-1999 period, odds ratios ranged from 0.72 to 0.90, ...

Physician reminders to promote surveillance colonoscopy for colorectal adenomas: a randomized controlled trial.

Abstract: Most colorectal cancers develop from adenomatous polyps. National guidelines recommend surveillance colonoscopy within 5 years after such polyps are removed. To determine whether surveillance colonoscopy can be increased among overdue patients by reminders to their primary physicians. Randomized, controlled trial of patient-specific reminders mailed to 141 physicians in 2 Massachusetts primary care networks during April, 2006. Seven hundred seventeen patients who had colorectal adenomas removed during 1995 through 2000 and no follow-up colonoscopy identified via automated review of electronic records through March, 2006. The use of colonoscopy and detection of new adenomas or cancer were assessed at 6 months by a blinded medical record review in all patients. Among 358 patients whose physicians received reminders, 33 (9.2%) patients underwent colonoscopy within 6 months, compared with 16 (4.5%) of 359 patients whose physicians did not receive reminders (P = 0.009). In prespecified subgroups, this effect did not differ statistically between 2 primary care networks, elderly and nonelderly patients, or women and men (all P > 0.60 by Breslow–Day test). New adenomas or cancer were detected in 14 (3.9%) intervention patients and 6 (1.7%) control patients (P = 0.06), representing 42.4% and 37.5% of patients who underwent colonoscopy in each group, respectively. Despite using advanced electronic health records to identify eligible patients, 22.5% of enrolled patients had a prior follow-up colonoscopy ascertained only by visual record review, and physicians reported 27.9% of intervention patients were no longer active in their practice. Among patients with prior colorectal adenomas, physician reminders increased the use of surveillance colonoscopy, but better systems are needed to identify eligible patients (ClinicalTrials.gov ID number NCT00397969).

Use of clinical laboratory data to identify inpatient hospital complications

Abstract: Described herein are systems and methods for identification of complications by identifying physiological changes associated with these complications that are reflected in laboratory results. In some embodiments, systems and methods are described for identifying trends in the laboratory data over time and associating those trends with degrees of risk or complication factors that are established through retroactive analysis of similar laboratory data across a plurality of care facilities or patient groups. In some embodiments, a benchmark may be established, based on laboratory results, against which care facilities can retrospectively compare patient outcomes within their own facility or among various patient groups.