世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The gravity model has been widely used to infer substantial trade flow effects of institutions such as customs unions and exchange rate mechanisms. McCallum [1995] found that the US-Canada border led to trade between provinces that is a factor 22 (2,200%) times trade between states and provinces, a spectacular puzzle in light of the low formal barriers on this border. We show that the gravity model usually estimated does not correspond to the theory behind it. We solve the 'border puzzle' by applying the theory seriously. We find that national borders reduce trade between the US and Canada by about 44%, while reducing trade among other industrialized countries by about 30%. McCallum's spectacular headline number is the result of a combination of omitted variables bias and the small size of the Canadian economy. Within-Canada trade rises by a factor 6 due to the border. In contrast, within-US trade rises 25%.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=256086

Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle

This article builds a theoretical framework to help explain governance patterns in global value chains It draws on three streams of literature ‐ transaction costs economics, production networks, and technological capability and firm-level learning ‐ to identify three variables that play a large role in determining how global value chains are governed and change These are: (1) the complexity of transactions, (2) the ability to codify transactions, and (3) the capabilities in the supply-base The theory generates five types of global value chain governance ‐ hierarchy, captive, relational, modular, and market ‐ which range from high to low levels of explicit coordination and power asymmetry The article highlights the dynamic and overlapping nature of global value chain governance through four brief industry case studies: bicycles, apparel, horticulture and electronics

/pdf/the-governance-of-global-value-chains-3dmchifo7i.pdf

The governance of global value chains

Gravity equations have been widely used to infer trade flow effects of various institutional arrangements. We show that estimated gravity equations do not have a theoretical foundation. This implies both that estimation suffers from omitted variables bias and that comparative statics analysis is unfounded. We develop a method that (i) consistently and efficiently estimates a theoretical gravity equation and (ii) correctly calculates the comparative statics of trade frictions. We apply the method to solve the famous McCallum border puzzle. Applying our method, we find that national borders reduce trade between industrialized countries by moderate amounts of 20-50 percent.

/pdf/gravity-with-gravitas-a-solution-to-the-border-puzzle-4dn7us6msp.pdf

This paper develops techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available product-level and aggregate consumer-level data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the tech- niques developed here to the U.S. automobile market, we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period.

/pdf/automobile-prices-in-market-equilibrium-1w0xnf91hi.pdf

Automobile prices in market equilibrium

We describe the theory and practice of real GDP comparisons across countries and over time. Effective with version 8, the Penn World Table (PWT) will be taken over by the University of California, Davis and the University of Groningen, with continued input from Alan Heston at the University of Pennsylvania. Version 8 will expand on previous versions of PWT in three respects. First, it will distinguish real GDP on the expenditure side from real GDP on the output side, which differ by the terms of trade faced by countries. Second, it will distinguish growth rates of GDP based on national accounts data from growth rates that are benchmarked in multiple years to cross-country price data. Third, data on capital stocks will be reintroduced. Some illustrative results from PWT version 8 are discussed, including new results that show how the Penn effect is not emergent but a stable relationship over time.

/pdf/online-appendix-to-the-next-generation-of-the-penn-world-4tu31v8v90.pdf

Online Appendix to: The Next Generation of the Penn World Table*

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19255/w19255.pdf

The Next Generation of the Penn World Table

The last few decades have seen a spectacular integration of the global economy through trade. The share of imports (or exports) in GDP for the United States has approximately doubled in the last two decades, and if intra-OECD trade is omitted, the same is true for the OECD countries generally. Trade does remain a seemingly small fraction of U.S. GDP. This is not surprising in view of the fact that large economies trade less with others, and more internally. But the modest share of trade in total national income hides the fact that merchandise trade as a share of merchandise value-added is quite high for the United States and the OECD, and has been growing dramatically. In fact, if one focuses on merchandise trade relative to value-added, the world is much more integrated today than at any time during the past century. The rising integration of world markets has brought with it a disintegration of the production process, in which manufacturing or services activities done abroad are combined with those performed at home. Companies are now finding it profitable to outsource increasing amounts of the production process, a process which can happen either domestically or abroad. This represents a breakdown in the vertically-integrated mode of production—the so-called ‘‘Fordist’’ production, exemplified by the automobile industry—on which American manufacturing was built. A number of prominent researchers have referred to the importance of the idea that production occurs internationally: Bhagwati and Dehejia (1994) call this ‘‘kaleidoscope comparative advantage,’’ as firms shift location quickly; Krugman

/pdf/integration-of-trade-and-disintegration-of-production-in-the-3ki6fnrh0k.pdf

Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy

Trade is a cornerstone concept in economics worldwide. This updated second edition of the essential graduate textbook in international trade brings readers to the forefront of knowledge in the field and prepares students to undertake their own research. In Advanced International Trade, Robert Feenstra integrates the most current theoretical approaches with empirical evidence, and these materials are supplemented in each chapter by theoretical and empirical exercises.Feenstra explores a wealth of material, such as the Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models, extensions to many goods and factors, and the role of tariffs, quotas, and other trade policies. He examines imperfect competition, offshoring, political economy, multinationals, endogenous growth, the gravity equation, and the organization of the firm in international trade. Feenstra also includes a new chapter on monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms, with many applications of that model. In addition to known results, the book looks at some particularly important unpublished results by various authors. Two appendices draw on index numbers and discrete choice models to describe methods applicable to research problems in international trade. Completely revised with the latest developments and brand-new materials, Advanced International Trade is a classic textbook that will be used widely by students and practitioners of economics for a long time to come.Updated second edition of the essential graduate textbookCurrent approaches and a new chapter on monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firmsSupplementary materials in each chapterTheoretical and empirical exercisesTwo appendices describe methods for international trade researchSolutions manual available to professorsProfessors: A supplementary Solutions Manual is available for this book. It is restricted to teachers using the text in courses.

/pdf/advanced-international-trade-theory-and-evidence-ed-2-4l4q17z9al.pdf

Advanced International Trade : Theory and Evidence Ed. 2

We estimate the relative influence of trade versus technology on wages in a "large-country" setting, where technological change affects product prices. Trade is measured by the foreign outsourcing of intermediate inputs, while technological change is measured by expenditures on high-technology capital such as computers. The estimation procedure we develop, which modifies the conventional "price regression," is able to distinguish whether product price changes are due to factor-biased versus sector-biased technology shifts. In our base specification we find that computers explain about 35 percent of the increase in the relative wage of nonproduction workers, while outsourcing explains 15 percent; both of these effects are higher in other specifications.

https://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/pdf/tfp13.pdf

Robert C. Feenstra

Papers

Online Appendix to: The Next Generation of the Penn World Table*

The Next Generation of the Penn World Table

Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy

Advanced International Trade : Theory and Evidence Ed. 2

The Impact of Outsourcing and High-Technology Capital on Wages: Estimates For the United States, 1979–1990