世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The gravity model has been widely used to infer substantial trade flow effects of institutions such as customs unions and exchange rate mechanisms. McCallum [1995] found that the US-Canada border led to trade between provinces that is a factor 22 (2,200%) times trade between states and provinces, a spectacular puzzle in light of the low formal barriers on this border. We show that the gravity model usually estimated does not correspond to the theory behind it. We solve the 'border puzzle' by applying the theory seriously. We find that national borders reduce trade between the US and Canada by about 44%, while reducing trade among other industrialized countries by about 30%. McCallum's spectacular headline number is the result of a combination of omitted variables bias and the small size of the Canadian economy. Within-Canada trade rises by a factor 6 due to the border. In contrast, within-US trade rises 25%.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=256086

Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle

This article builds a theoretical framework to help explain governance patterns in global value chains It draws on three streams of literature ‐ transaction costs economics, production networks, and technological capability and firm-level learning ‐ to identify three variables that play a large role in determining how global value chains are governed and change These are: (1) the complexity of transactions, (2) the ability to codify transactions, and (3) the capabilities in the supply-base The theory generates five types of global value chain governance ‐ hierarchy, captive, relational, modular, and market ‐ which range from high to low levels of explicit coordination and power asymmetry The article highlights the dynamic and overlapping nature of global value chain governance through four brief industry case studies: bicycles, apparel, horticulture and electronics

/pdf/the-governance-of-global-value-chains-3dmchifo7i.pdf

The governance of global value chains

Gravity equations have been widely used to infer trade flow effects of various institutional arrangements. We show that estimated gravity equations do not have a theoretical foundation. This implies both that estimation suffers from omitted variables bias and that comparative statics analysis is unfounded. We develop a method that (i) consistently and efficiently estimates a theoretical gravity equation and (ii) correctly calculates the comparative statics of trade frictions. We apply the method to solve the famous McCallum border puzzle. Applying our method, we find that national borders reduce trade between industrialized countries by moderate amounts of 20-50 percent.

/pdf/gravity-with-gravitas-a-solution-to-the-border-puzzle-4dn7us6msp.pdf

This paper develops techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available product-level and aggregate consumer-level data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the tech- niques developed here to the U.S. automobile market, we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period.

/pdf/automobile-prices-in-market-equilibrium-1w0xnf91hi.pdf

Automobile prices in market equilibrium

Direct investment has accounted for about a quarter of total international capital outflows in the 1990s and appears to have grown, relative to other forms of international investment, since the 1970s. The United States was by far the major source of direct investment outflows in the early 1970s, but Europe caught up to the United States in the 1980s and Japan almost did, before fading in the 1990s. The United States shifted from being the largest net supplier of direct investment to absorbing much of the world's supply, especially in the late 1980s, and then reverted to its earlier net supplier role. Direct Investment flows have been the least volatile source of international investment for most countries, the chief exception being the United States, which has flipped back and forth from dominant net supplier to dominant net recipient, and back to dominant net supplier. Particularly for developing countries, direct investment has been the most dependable source of foreign investment.

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows

We document a set of bilateral trade data by commodity for 1962-2000, which is available from www.nber.org/data (International Trade Data, NBER-UN world trade data). Users must agree not to resell or distribute the data for 1984-2000. The data are organized by the 4-digit Standard International Trade Classification, revision 2, with country codes similar to the United Nations classification. This dataset updates the Statistics Canada World Trade Database as described in Feenstra, Lipsey, and Bowen (1997), which was available for years 1970-1992. In that database, Statistics Canada had revised the United Nations trade data, mostly derived from the export side, to fit the Canadian trade classification and in some cases to add data not available from the export reports. In contrast, in the new NBER-UN dataset we give primacy to the trade flows reported by the importing country, whenever they are available, assuming that these are more accurate than reports by the exporters. If the importer report is not available for a country-pair, however, then the corresponding exporter report is used instead. Corrections and additions are made to the United Nations data for trade flows to and from the United States, exports from Hong Kong and China, and imports into many other countries.

World Trade Flows: 1962-2000

Along with its painful economic costs, the financial crisis of 2008 raised concerns over the future of international policy making. As in recessions past, new policy initiatives emerged, approaches that placed greater importance on protecting national interests than promoting international economic cooperation. Whether in fiscal or monetary policies, the control of currencies and capital flows, the regulation of finance, or the implementation of protectionist policies and barriers to trade, there has been an almost worldwide trend toward the prioritizing of national economic security. But what are the underlying economic causes of this trend, and what can economic research reveal about the possible consequences? Prompted by these questions, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor have brought together top researchers with policy makers and practitioners whose contributions consider the ways in which the global economic order might address the challenges of globalization that have arisen over the last two decades and that have been intensified by the recent crisis. Chapters in this volume consider the critical linkages between issues, including exchange rates, global imbalances, and financial regulation, and plumb the political and economic outcomes of past policies for what they might tell us about the future of the global economic cooperation.

Globalization in an Age of Crisis

National and International Accounts: Income, Wealth, and the Balance of Payments

Appendix A: Alternative Cost Specification Kugler and Verhoogen (2012, p. 321) consider a production function for quality of the form 1/ z ( )        , where  denotes the quality of inputs used and  denotes the plant capability. To relate this production function to our model, we introduce the notation for source country i, firm j and destination country k, and we begin by replacing ij  by k ij ij l  , indicating the effective amount of the composite input per unit of output needed to produce quality k ij z . The CES structure of the quality production function in Kugler and Verhoogen does not allow us to obtain a log-linear solution for quality. Instead, we adopt the simpler functional form:

/pdf/online-appendix-to-international-prices-and-endogenous-2vckdrlo32.pdf

Robert C. Feenstra

Papers

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows

World Trade Flows: 1962-2000

Globalization in an Age of Crisis

National and International Accounts: Income, Wealth, and the Balance of Payments

Online Appendix to International Prices and Endogenous Quality