世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The gravity model has been widely used to infer substantial trade flow effects of institutions such as customs unions and exchange rate mechanisms. McCallum [1995] found that the US-Canada border led to trade between provinces that is a factor 22 (2,200%) times trade between states and provinces, a spectacular puzzle in light of the low formal barriers on this border. We show that the gravity model usually estimated does not correspond to the theory behind it. We solve the 'border puzzle' by applying the theory seriously. We find that national borders reduce trade between the US and Canada by about 44%, while reducing trade among other industrialized countries by about 30%. McCallum's spectacular headline number is the result of a combination of omitted variables bias and the small size of the Canadian economy. Within-Canada trade rises by a factor 6 due to the border. In contrast, within-US trade rises 25%.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=256086

Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle

This article builds a theoretical framework to help explain governance patterns in global value chains It draws on three streams of literature ‐ transaction costs economics, production networks, and technological capability and firm-level learning ‐ to identify three variables that play a large role in determining how global value chains are governed and change These are: (1) the complexity of transactions, (2) the ability to codify transactions, and (3) the capabilities in the supply-base The theory generates five types of global value chain governance ‐ hierarchy, captive, relational, modular, and market ‐ which range from high to low levels of explicit coordination and power asymmetry The article highlights the dynamic and overlapping nature of global value chain governance through four brief industry case studies: bicycles, apparel, horticulture and electronics

/pdf/the-governance-of-global-value-chains-3dmchifo7i.pdf

The governance of global value chains

Gravity equations have been widely used to infer trade flow effects of various institutional arrangements. We show that estimated gravity equations do not have a theoretical foundation. This implies both that estimation suffers from omitted variables bias and that comparative statics analysis is unfounded. We develop a method that (i) consistently and efficiently estimates a theoretical gravity equation and (ii) correctly calculates the comparative statics of trade frictions. We apply the method to solve the famous McCallum border puzzle. Applying our method, we find that national borders reduce trade between industrialized countries by moderate amounts of 20-50 percent.

/pdf/gravity-with-gravitas-a-solution-to-the-border-puzzle-4dn7us6msp.pdf

This paper develops techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available product-level and aggregate consumer-level data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the tech- niques developed here to the U.S. automobile market, we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period.

/pdf/automobile-prices-in-market-equilibrium-1w0xnf91hi.pdf

Automobile prices in market equilibrium

Voluntary Export Restraint in U.S. Autos, 1980-81: Quality, Employment, and Welfare Effects

The puzzle of “missing trade” (Daniel Trefler, 1995) refers to the finding that the factor content of trade is so much smaller than that predicted from the Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model. It is striking that authors who attempt to use the factor content of trade to explain wages (Lawrence Katz and Kevin Murphy, 1992) reach much the same conclusion: changes in the labor content of U.S. imports have been too small to explain much, if any, of the change in wages. Both of these results have been subject to extensive critiques. Thus, it is argued that the HOV model should be generalized to allow for different technologies across countries (Trefler, 1995; Donald Davis and David Weinstein, 1998); and that using the factor content of trade to predict changes in wages is fraught with theoretical difficulties (see the debate between Paul Krugman [2000] and Edward Leamer [2000]). In this paper we reexamine the finding that the factor content of trade is “small” and argue that this might be due to aggregation bias. The direct factor requirements can quite easily be computed at a disaggregated industry level, such as the four-digit standard industrial classification (SIC), as in Katz and Murphy (1992). This is not true, however, for the indirect factor requirements, which require the use of an input– output matrix for the economy. The recent work of Davis and Weinstein (1998), for example, uses input–output matrixes for the OECD countries which have about 20 manufacturing industries, corresponding quite closely to the U.S. two-digit SIC level. Accordingly, the net exports, output, and direct factor contents would need to be aggregated to that industry level before any factor-content calculation is made. In aggregating the factor requirements, it is inevitable that domestic outputs would be used as weights; this is the only way that the domestic full-employment condition is preserved. However, this particular weighting scheme does not preserve the value of the factor content of trade. On the contrary, in order for the factor content of trade to be invariant to aggregation, it would be necessary to use something like net exports as weights in the aggregation. We will show that the difference between these two weighting schemes leads to a systematic bias in the factor content of trade. Furthermore, the sign of this bias is the same as that obtained from a regression of net exports on factor contents, similar to that performed by Robert Baldwin (1971). Thus, we obtain an intuitively appealing expression for the aggregation bias, and we apply this to the measurement of the factor-content trade in U.S. manufacturing.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/117211.pdf

Aggregation Bias in the Factor Content of Trade: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24056/w24056.pdf

US exports and employment

This paper investigates the use of high-frequency scanner data to construct price indexes. In the presence of inventory behavior, purchases and consumption by individuals differ over time. Cost-of-living indexes can still be constructed using data on purchases. For weekly data on canned tuna, the paper contrast two different types of price indexes: fixed-base and chained indexes. Only the former are theoretically correct, and in fact, the chained indexes have a pronounced upward bias for most regions of the U.S. This upward bias can be caused by consumers purchasing goods for inventory. The paper presents some direct statistical support for inventory behavior being the cause of the upward bias, though advertising and special displays also have a very significant impact on shopping patterns.

/pdf/high-frequency-substitution-and-the-measurement-of-price-36ai6fmrcl.pdf

High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes

In a model where all factors of production are imperfectly mobile, we argue that the Dixit-Norman scheme of commodity taxes may not lead to strict Pareto gains from trade. Rather, this scheme must be augmented by policies which give factors an incentive to move: hence, the role for trade adjustment assistance (TAA). We demonstrate that by knowledge of the distribution of adjustment costs across individuals, the government can offer a single TAA subsidy to all individuals willing to move between industries, and maintain a non-negative budget. The TAA subsidy, combined with the Dixit-Norman pattern of commodity taxes, can lead to Pareto gains from trade under the conditions we identify.

Robert C. Feenstra

Papers

Voluntary Export Restraint in U.S. Autos, 1980-81: Quality, Employment, and Welfare Effects

Aggregation Bias in the Factor Content of Trade: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing

US exports and employment

High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes

Trade Adjustment Assistance And Pareto Gains From Trade