隐蔽型地震（Hidden Earthquakes）

Robust adaptive fault-tolerant control of a tandem coaxial ducted fan aircraft with actuator saturation

The radiant distribution of sporadic radiometeors has been studied using six surveys catalogued by the IAU Meteor Data Center. In addition to the previously known Apex, Helion, Anithelion and Northern Toroidal sources, we have discovered a Southern Toroidal source and have confirmed that the Apex source may be split into Northern and Southern components.

The Radiant Distribution of Sporadic Meteors

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) "Orion", and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, MPCV, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.

/pdf/use-of-des-modeling-for-determining-launch-availability-for-3g0yhc043x.pdf

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

A baseline configuration for the dual-aircraft platform (DAP) concept is described and evaluated in a physics-based flight dynamics simulations for two month-long missions as a communications relay in the lower stratosphere above central Florida. The DAP features two unmanned aerial vehicles connected via a long adjustable cable which effectively sail back-and-forth using wind velocity gradients and solar energy. Detailed atmospheric profiles in the vicinity of 60,000-ft derived from archived data measured by the 50-Mhz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler at Cape Canaveral are used in the flight simulations. An overview of the novel guidance and flight control strategies are provided. The energy-usage of the baseline configuration during month-long stationkeeping missions (i.e., within 150-mile radius of downtown Orlando) is characterized and compared to that of a pure solar aircraft.

/pdf/virtual-flight-demonstration-of-the-stratospheric-dual-2zeadpf69g.pdf

Virtual Flight Demonstration of the Stratospheric Dual-Aircraft Platform

This paper presents the process used by the Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch (EV44) to quality control (QC) data from the Kennedy Space Center's 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler for use in vehicle wind loads and steering commands. The database has been built to mitigate limitations of using the currently archived databases from weather balloons. The DRWP database contains wind measurements from approximately 2.7-18.6 km altitude at roughly five minute intervals for the August 1997 to December 2009 period of record, and the extensive QC process was designed to remove spurious data from various forms of atmospheric and non-atmospheric artifacts. The QC process is largely based on DRWP literature, but two new algorithms have been developed to remove data contaminated by convection and excessive first guess propagations from the Median Filter First Guess Algorithm. In addition to describing the automated and manual QC process in detail, this paper describes the extent of the data retained. Roughly 58% of all possible wind observations exist in the database, with approximately 100 times as many complete profile sets existing relative to the EV44 balloon databases. This increased sample of near-continuous wind profile measurements may help increase launch availability by reducing the uncertainty of wind changes during launch countdown

/pdf/quality-control-algorithms-for-the-kennedy-space-center-50-mp6jao9ng3.pdf

Quality Control Algorithms for the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Winds Database

Planning for future National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions will encompass a variety of operational and engineering activities that involve a multitude of issues, constraints, and influences derived from the natural environment. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents a definition of the natural environment, i.e., a description in engineering handbook format of models and data specifically selected to support the architecture development, engineering design, and technology development for NASA's Exploration Systems Development (ESD) initiatives.

Natural Environments Definition for Design

Impact of winds to space launch vehicle include Design, Certification Day-of-launch (DOL) steering commands (1)Develop "knockdowns" of load indicators (2) Temporal uncertainty of flight winds. Currently use databases from weather balloons. Includes discrete profiles and profile pair datasets. Issues are : (1)Larger vehicles operate near design limits during ascent 150 discrete profiles per month 110-217 seasonal 2.0 and 3.5-hour pairs Balloon rise time (one hour) and drift (up to 100 n mi) Advantages of the Alternative approach using Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) are: (1) Obtain larger sample size (2) Provide flexibility for assessing trajectory changes due to winds (3) Better representation of flight winds.

Quality Control Algorithms and Proposed Integration Process for Wind Profilers Used by Launch Vehicle Systems

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (EV44) has provided atmospheric databases and analysis in support of space vehicle design and day-of-launch operations for NASA and commercial launch vehicle programs launching from the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ER is one of the most heavily instrumented sites in the United States measuring various atmospheric parameters on a continuous basis. An inherent challenge with the large databases that EV44 receives from the ER consists of ensuring erroneous data are removed from the databases, and thus excluded from launch vehicle design analyses. EV44 has put forth great effort in developing quality control (QC) procedures for individual meteorological instruments; however, no standard QC procedures for all databases currently exist resulting in QC databases that have inconsistencies in variables, methodologies, and periods of record. The goal of this activity is to use the previous efforts by EV44 to develop a standardized set of QC procedures from which to build flags within the meteorological databases from KSC and the ER, while maintaining open communication with end users from the launch community to develop ways to improve, adapt and grow the QC database. Details of the QC checks are described. The flagged data points will be plotted in a graphical user interface (GUI) as part of a manual confirmation that the flagged data do indeed need to be removed from the archive. As the rate of launches increases with additional launch vehicle programs, more emphasis is being placed to continually update and check weather databases for data quality before use in launch vehicle design and certification analyses.

/pdf/building-a-qc-database-of-meteorological-data-from-nasa-ksc-4b74jpbghu.pdf

Building a QC Database of Meteorological Data From NASA KSC and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

/pdf/temporal-wind-pairs-for-space-launch-vehicle-capability-1x6bpkghht.pdf

Robert E. Barbre

Papers

Quality Control Algorithms for the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Winds Database

Natural Environments Definition for Design

Quality Control Algorithms and Proposed Integration Process for Wind Profilers Used by Launch Vehicle Systems

Building a QC Database of Meteorological Data From NASA KSC and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation