Showing papers by "Robert Gregory published in 2013"

The Resources Boom and Economic Policy in the Long Run

Abstract: Australia's current resources boom has three elements: high terms of trade, strong investment and increased resource exports. For a decade, the net effect has been strongly positive: the boost to incomes and activity from the first two has more than offset the impact of the high Australian dollar. But, both resource investment and the terms of trade will fall in due course and the economy will face a major deflationary shock. A sustained policy response will be needed that recognises the limits of monetary policy and hence involves fiscal stimulus, together with innovative approaches to ensure that infrastructure investment rises rapidly.

The Henderson Question? The Melbourne Institute and 50 Years of Welfare Policy

Abstract: I discuss selected research contributions of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research to 50 years of welfare policy for those of workforce age and focus particularly on the policy focus of R. F. Henderson, the inaugural director. Following the spirit of his 1960s poverty research, in the mid-1970s, government doubled unemployment allowances in real terms and increased pensions by approximately 40 per cent. Both income support payments were to be indexed by average wage increases. At the time, unemployment was typically around 1 per cent and the pension take-up for those of workforce age was also limited. Today, income support take-up rates have probably increased fivefold. In response, government has adopted a ‘make work pay’ policy over the last two decades and indexed allowances for Consumer Price Index increases and allowances have fallen by 25–35 per cent, relative to community living standards. Pensions continue to be indexed by average wage changes. I address a range of questions arising from this experience, including: Why has government abandoned the Henderson recommendations?; Is there any evidence that a ‘make work pay’ policy is working?

The Henderson Question? The Melbourne Institute and fifty years of welfare policy

Abstract: We discuss selected research contributions of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research, to fifty years of welfare policy for those of work force age and focus particularly on the policy focus of R. F. Henderson, the inaugural director. Following the spirit of his 1960s poverty research, government, in the mid-1970s, doubled unemployment allowances in real terms and increased pensions by approximately forty per cent. Both income support payments were to be indexed by average wage increases. At the time, unemployment was typically around one per cent and the pension take-up was also limited. Today, income support take-up rates have probably increased five-fold. In response, government has adopted a “make work pay’ policy over the last two decades and indexed allowances for CPI increases and allowances have fallen 25-35 per cent, relative to community living standards. We address a range of questions arising from this experience including, Why has government abandoned the Henderson recommendations? Is there any evidence that a “make work pay” policy is working?