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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith, 1797) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is the most important noctuid pest in the Americas and has recently become an invasive pest in Africa. A detailed record of S. frugiperda's host plants is essential to better understand the biology and ecology of this pest, conduct future studies, and develop Integrated Pest Management programmes. In this study, we collected and systematically arranged the fragmented bibliographic information on S. frugiperda feeding records. Furthermore, we registered new records of host plants for S. frugiperda based on eight years of surveys in Brazil. The literature review and surveys resulted in a total of 353 S. frugiperda larval host plant records belonging to 76 plant families, principally Poaceae (106), Asteraceae (31) and Fabaceae (31). The literature search revealed 274 (77 % of total) bibliographic records, while 82 (23 %) are new records from surveys in Brazil. The new comprehensive and updated host plant list will improve our understanding of pest biology and management, as well as facilitate future studies on this pest.

/pdf/host-plants-of-spodoptera-frugiperda-lepidoptera-noctuidae-24uej9ywjw.pdf

Host Plants of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Americas

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/upload/blog/file/2009/9/2009920202156840565.pdf

Evolution of endophyte-plant symbioses

Bayesian networks (BNs), also known as Bayesian belief networks or Bayes nets, are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that has become very popular to practitioners mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes them able to deal with a wide range of problems. The goal of this review is to show how BNs are being used in environmental modelling. We are interested in the application of BNs, from January 1990 to December 2010, in the areas of the ISI Web of Knowledge related to Environmental Sciences. It is noted that only the 4.2% of the papers have been published under this item. The different steps that configure modelling via BNs have been revised: aim of the model, data pre-processing, model learning, validation and software. Our literature review indicates that BNs have barely been used for Environmental Science and their potential is, as yet, largely unexploited.

Review: Bayesian networks in environmental modelling

Introduction to forest genetics.

Fall armyworm: impacts and implications for Africa.

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20-50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe damage to livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa, and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.

https://neobiota.pensoft.net/lib/ajax_srv/article_elements_srv.php?action=download_pdf&item_id=28165

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Agroforestry trees are attacked by a wide spectrum of insects at all stages of their growth just like other annual and perennial crops. Pest management in agroforestry has not received much attention so far, but recent emphasis on producing high value tree products in agroforestry and using improved germplasm in traditional systems, and emergence of serious pest problems in some promising agroforestry systems have increased awareness on risks posed by pests. Insects may attack one or more species within a system and across systems in the landscape, so pest management strategies should depend on the nature of the insect and magnitude of its damage. Although greater plant diversity in agroforestry is expected to increase beneficial arthropods, diversity by itself may not reduce pests. Introduction of tree germplasm from a narrow genetic base and intensive use of trees may lead to pest outbreaks. In simultaneous agroforestry systems, a number of factors governing tree—crop—environment interactions, such as diversity of plant species, host range of the pests, microclimate, spatial arrangement and tree management modify pest infestations by affecting populations of both herbivores and natural enemies. Trees also affect pest infestations by acting as barriers to movement of insects, masking the odours emitted by other components of the system and sheltering herbivores and natural enemies. In sequential agroforestry systems, it is mostly the soil-borne and diapausing insects that cause and perpetuate damage to the common hosts in tree—crop rotations over seasons or years. An integrated approach combining host-plant resistance to pests, exploiting alternative tree species, measures that prevent pest build up but favour natural enemies and biological control is suggested for managing pests in agroforestry. Species substitution to avoid pests is feasible only if trees are grown for ecological services such as soil conservation and low value products such as fuelwood, but not for trees yielding specific and high value products. For exploiting biological control as a potent, low cost and environmentally safe tool for pest management in agroforestry, research should focus on understanding the influence of ecological and management factors on the dynamics of insect pest-natural enemy populations. Scientists and policy makers in national and international institutions, and donors are urged to pay more attention to pest problems in agroforestry to harness the potential benefits of agroforestry.

Insect pest problems in tropical agroforestry systems : Contributory factors and strategies for management

The fall armyworm (FAW, Spodoptera frugiperda) has recently spread to many countries in Africa, the Near East, Asia and the Pacific. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), more than 300 million people depend on FAW’s preferred host plant, maize, as a staple crop. Hence, the spread of FAW in SSA has the potential to negatively affect livelihoods and food security. Many farmers have responded to FAW by increasing their use of synthetic pesticides, but these are not always used safely or effectively. More information on sustainable alternatives to high-risk synthetic pesticides is needed to inform decisions by farmers and policy makers. In a previous paper, the authors responded to this information need by identifying fifty biopesticides which had been registered for FAW management in one or more of 30 countries in FAWs native region and Africa. For each biopesticide identified, detailed profiles with information on their efficacy against FAW; associated human health and environmental hazards; their agronomic sustainability; and whether or not they are practical for use by smallholder farmers were developed Research for development (R4D) efforts is ongoing in Africa and Asia for development and use of biopesticides for FAW management. Hence, in this study the authors assessed the current state of knowledge and documented how information gaps have been filled (or not) since the previous paper was published. The authors found that for many biopesticides there is a growing body of information on their efficacy in the field in Africa and increased availability of commercialized products. They also note remaining information gaps, particularly the compatibility of the biopesticides with other recommended management practices, and cost-benefit analyses, important for developing and implementing sustainable IPM. An updated list of priority biopesticides for research, development and promotion is provided.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jen.12565

Roger Day

Papers

Fall armyworm: impacts and implications for Africa.

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Insect pest problems in tropical agroforestry systems : Contributory factors and strategies for management

Updated assessment of potential biopesticide options for managing fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in Africa

Global crop impacts, yield losses and action thresholds for fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda): A review