Non-Uniform Random Variate Generation.

This is a survey of the main methods in non-uniform random variate generation, and highlights recent research on the subject. Classical paradigms such as inversion, rejection, guide tables, and transformations are reviewed. We provide information on the expected time complexity of various algorithms, before addressing modern topics such as indirectly specified distributions, random processes, and Markov chain methods. Authors’ address: School of Computer Science, McGill University, 3480 University Street, Montreal, Canada H3A 2K6. The authors’ research was sponsored by NSERC Grant A3456 and FCAR Grant 90-ER-0291. 1. The main paradigms The purpose of this chapter is to review the main methods for generating random variables, vectors and processes. Classical workhorses such as the inversion method, the rejection method and table methods are reviewed in section 1. In section 2, we discuss the expected time complexity of various algorithms, and give a few examples of the design of generators that are uniformly fast over entire families of distributions. In section 3, we develop a few universal generators, such as generators for all log concave distributions on the real line. Section 4 deals with random variate generation when distributions are indirectly specified, e.g, via Fourier coefficients, characteristic functions, the moments, the moment generating function, distributional identities, infinite series or Kolmogorov measures. Random processes are briefly touched upon in section 5. Finally, the latest developments in Markov chain methods are discussed in section 6. Some of this work grew from Devroye (1986a), and we are carefully documenting work that was done since 1986. More recent references can be found in the book by Hörmann, Leydold and Derflinger (2004). Non-uniform random variate generation is concerned with the generation of random variables with certain distributions. Such random variables are often discrete, taking values in a countable set, or absolutely continuous, and thus described by a density. The methods used for generating them depend upon the computational model one is working with, and upon the demands on the part of the output. For example, in a ram (random access memory) model, one accepts that real numbers can be stored and operated upon (compared, added, multiplied, and so forth) in one time unit. Furthermore, this model assumes that a source capable of producing an i.i.d. (independent identically distributed) sequence of uniform [0, 1] random variables is available. This model is of course unrealistic, but designing random variate generators based on it has several advantages: first of all, it allows one to disconnect the theory of non-uniform random variate generation from that of uniform random variate generation, and secondly, it permits one to plan for the future, as more powerful computers will be developed that permit ever better approximations of the model. Algorithms designed under finite approximation limitations will have to be redesigned when the next generation of computers arrives. For the generation of discrete or integer-valued random variables, which includes the vast area of the generation of random combinatorial structures, one can adhere to a clean model, the pure bit model, in which each bit operation takes one time unit, and storage can be reported in terms of bits. Typically, one now assumes that an i.i.d. sequence of independent perfect bits is available. In this model, an elegant information-theoretic theory can be derived. For example, Knuth and Yao (1976) showed that to generate a random integer X described by the probability distribution {X = n} = pn, n ≥ 1, any method must use an expected number of bits greater than the binary entropy of the distribution, ∑

Non-uniform random variate generation

Many ``real-world'' networks are clearly defined while most ``social'' networks are to some extent subjective. Indeed, the accuracy of empirically-determined social networks is a question of some concern because individuals may have distinct perceptions of what constitutes a social link. One unambiguous type of connection is sexual contact. Here we analyze data on the sexual behavior of a random sample of individuals, and find that the cumulative distributions of the number of sexual partners during the twelve months prior to the survey decays as a power law with similar exponents $\alpha \approx 2.4$ for females and males. The scale-free nature of the web of human sexual contacts suggests that strategic interventions aimed at preventing the spread of sexually-transmitted diseases may be the most efficient approach.

The Web of Human Sexual Contacts

Verification and validation of simulation models are discussed in this paper. Three approaches to deciding model validity are described, two paradigms that relate verification and validation to the...

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Verification and validation of simulation models

We use the method of probability-weighted moments to derive estimators of the parameters and quantiles of the generalized extreme-value distribution. We investigate the properties of these estimators in large samples, via asymptotic theory, and in small and moderate samples, via computer simulation. Probability-weighted moment estimators have low variance and no severe bias, and they compare favorably with estimators obtained by the methods of maximum likelihood or sextiles. The method of probability-weighted moments also yields a convenient and powerful test of whether an extreme-value distribution is of Fisher-Tippett Type I, II, or III.

Estimation of the generalized extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments

SUMMARY A general method of estimating parameters in continuous univariate distributions is proposed. It is especially suited to cases where one of the parameters is an unknown shifted origin. This occurs, for example, in the three-parameter lognormal, gamma and Weibull models. For such distributions it is known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation can break down because the likelihood is unbounded and this can lead to inconsistent estimators. Properties of the proposed method are described. In particular it is shown to give consistent estimators with asymptotic efficiency equal to ML estimators when these exist. Moreover it gives consistent, asymptotically efficient estimators in situations where ML fails. Examples are given including numerical ones showing the advantages of the method.

Estimating Parameters in Continuous Univariate Distributions with a Shifted Origin

This paper compares two methods of assessing variability in simulation output. The methods make specific allowance for two sources of variation: that caused by uncertainty in estimating unknown input parameters (parameter uncertainty), and that caused by the inclusion of random variation within the simulation model itself (simulation uncertainty). The first method is based on classical statistical differential analysis; we show explicitly that, under general conditions, the two sources contribute separately to the total variation. In the classical approach, certain sensitivity coefficients have to be estimated. The effort needed to do this becomes progressively more expensive, increasing linearly with the number of unknown parameters. Moreover there is an additional difficulty of detecting spurious variation when the number of parameters is large. It is shown that a parametric form of bootstrap sampling provides an alternative method which does not suffer from either problem. For illustration, simulation ...

Sensitivity of computer simulation experiments to errors in input data

Objective: To compare the benefits of tuberculosis (TB) treatment with TB and HIV prevention for the control of TB in regions with high HIV prevalence. Design and methods: A compartmental difference equation model of TB and HIV has been developed and fitted to time series and other published data using Bayesian methods. The model is used to compare the effectiveness of TB chemotherapy with three strategies for prevention: highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the treatment of latent TB infection (TLTI) and the reduction of HIV transmission. Results: Even where the prevalence of HIV infection is high, finding and curing active TB is the most effective way to minimize the number of TB cases and deaths over the next 10 years. HAART can be as effective, but only with very high levels of coverage and compliance. TLTI is comparatively ineffective over all time scales. Reducing HIV incidence is relatively ineffective in preventing TB and TB deaths over 10 years but is much more effective over 20 years. Conclusions: In countries where the spread of HIV has led to a substantial increase in the incidence of TB, TB control programmes should maintain a strong emphasis on the treatment of active TB. To ensure effective control of TB in the longer term, methods of TB prevention should be carried out in addition to, but not as a substitute for, treating active cases.

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Tuberculosis epidemics driven by HIV: is prevention better than cure?

Four non-regular estimation problems are reviewed and discussed. One (the unbounded likelihood problem) involves distributions with infinite spikes, for which maximum likelihood can fail to give consistent estimators. A comparison is made with modified likelihood and spacings methods which do give efficient estimators in this case. An application to the Box-Cox shifted power transform is given. The other three problems occur when the true parameter lies in some special subregion. In one (the constrained parameter problem) the subregion is a boundary. The other two (the embedded model and the indeterminate parameters problems) occur when the model takes on a special form in the subregion. These last two problems have previously been investigated separately. We show that they are equivalent in some situations. Both often arise in non-linear models and we give a directed graph approach which allows for their occurrence in nested model building. It is argued that many non-regular problems can be handled systematically without having to resort to elaborate technical assumptions. Relatively uncomplicated methods may be used provided that the underlying nature of the non-regularity is understood

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02013.x

Non-regular maximum likelihood problems

A new rejection method is described for generating beta variates. The method is compared with previously published methods both theoretically and through computer timings. It is suggested that the method has advantages in both speed and programming simplicity over previous methods, especially for “difficult” combinations of parameter values.

Russell C. H. Cheng

Papers

Estimating Parameters in Continuous Univariate Distributions with a Shifted Origin

Sensitivity of computer simulation experiments to errors in input data

Tuberculosis epidemics driven by HIV: is prevention better than cure?

Non-regular maximum likelihood problems

Generating beta variates with nonintegral shape parameters