BACKGROUND Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. SEARCH METHODS PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. OUTCOMES SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P < 0.001; slope in adjusted meta-regression models = -0.64; -1.06 to -0.22; P = 0.003). The slopes in the meta-regression model were modified by fertility (P for interaction = 0.064) and geographic group (P for interaction = 0.027). There was a significant decline in SC between 1973 and 2011 among Unselected Western (-1.38; -2.02 to -0.74; P < 0.001) and among Fertile Western (-0.68; -1.31 to -0.05; P = 0.033), while no significant trends were seen among Unselected Other and Fertile Other. Among Unselected Western studies, the mean SC declined, on average, 1.4% per year with an overall decline of 52.4% between 1973 and 2011. Trends for TSC and SC were similar, with a steep decline among Unselected Western (-5.33 million/year, -7.56 to -3.11; P < 0.001), corresponding to an average decline in mean TSC of 1.6% per year and overall decline of 59.3%. Results changed minimally in multiple sensitivity analyses, and there was no statistical support for the use of a nonlinear model. In a model restricted to data post-1995, the slope both for SC and TSC among Unselected Western was similar to that for the entire period (-2.06 million/ml, -3.38 to -0.74; P = 0.004 and -8.12 million, -13.73 to -2.51, P = 0.006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because of the significant public health implications of these results, research on the causes of this continuing decline is urgently needed.

Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

In 1992 Carlsen et al. reported a significant global decline in sperm density between 1938 and 1990 [Evidence for Decreasing Quality of Semen during Last 50 Years. Br Med J 305:609-613 (1992)]. We subsequently published a reanalysis of the studies included by Carlsen et al. [Swan et al. Have Sperm Densities Declined? A Reanalysis of Global Trend Data. Environ Health Perspect 105:1228-1232 (1997)]. In that analysis we found significant declines in sperm density in the United States and Europe/Australia after controlling for abstinence time, age, percent of men with proven fertility, and specimen collection method. The declines in sperm density in the United States (approximately 1.5%/year) and Europe/Australia (approximately 3%/year) were somewhat greater than the average decline reported by Carlsen et al. (approximately 1%/year). However, we found no decline in sperm density in non-Western countries, for which data were very limited. In the current study, we used similar methods to analyze an expanded set of studies. We added 47 English language studies published in 1934-1996 to those we had analyzed previously. The average decline in sperm count was virtually unchanged from that reported previously by Carlsen et al. (slope = -0.94 vs. -0.93). The slopes in the three geographic groupings were also similar to those we reported earlier. In North America, the slope was somewhat less than the slope we had found for the United States (slope = -0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.37--0.24). Similarly, the decline in Europe (slope = -2.35; CI, -3.66--1.05) was somewhat less than reported previously. As before, studies from other countries showed no trend (slope = -0.21; CI, -2.30-1.88). These results are consistent with those of Carlsen et al. and our previous results, suggesting that the reported trends are not dependent on the particular studies included by Carlsen et al. and that the observed trends previously reported for 1938-1990 are also seen in data from 1934-1996.

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The question of declining sperm density revisited: an analysis of 101 studies published 1934-1996.

Difference in prevalence of congenital cryptorchidism in infants between two Nordic countries.

Carcinoma in situ testis (CIS), also known as intratubular germ cell neoplasia (ITGCN), is a pre-invasive precursor of testicular germ cell tumours, the commonest cancer type of male adolescents and young adults. In this review, evidence supporting the hypothesis of developmental origin of testicular germ cell cancer is summarized, and the current concepts regarding aetiology and pathogenesis of this disease are critically discussed. Comparative studies of cell surface proteins (e.g. PLAP and KIT), some of the germ cell-specific markers (e.g. MAGEA4, VASA, TSPY and NY-ESO-1), supported by studies of regulatory elements of the cell cycle (e.g. p53, CHK2 and p19-INK4d) demonstrated a close similarity of CIS to primordial germ cells and gonocytes, consistent with the pre-meiotic origin of CIS. Recent gene expression profiling studies showed that CIS cells closely resemble embryonic stem cells (ESCs). The abundance of factors associated with pluripotency (NANOG and OCT-3/4) and undifferentiated state (AP-2g) may explain the remarkable pluripotency of germ cell neoplasms, which are capable of differentiating to various somatic tissue components of teratomas. Impaired gonadal development resulting in the arrest of gonocyte differentiation and retention of its embryonic features, associated with an increasing genomic instability, is the most probable model for the pathogenesis of CIS. Genomic amplification of certain chromosomal regions, e.g. 12p, may facilitate survival of CIS and further invasive progression. Genetic studies, have so far not identified gene polymorphisms predisposing to the most common non-familial testicular cancer, but this research has only recently begun. Association of CIS with other disorders, such as congenital genital malformations and some forms of impaired spermatogenesis, all rising in incidence in a synchronous manner, led to the hypothesis that CIS might be a manifestation of testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS). The aetiology of TDS including testicular cancer remains to be elucidated, but epidemiological trends suggest a primary role for environmental factors, probably combined with genetic susceptibility.

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Developmental model for the pathogenesis of testicular carcinoma in situ: genetic and environmental aspects

Recent reports have indicated a decrease in semen quality of men in some countries, and suggested regional differences. A study was undertaken of semen samples from 1082 fertile men from four European cities (Copenhagen, Denmark; Paris, France; Edinburgh, Scotland; and Turku, Finland). Semen analysis was standardized, inter-laboratory differences in assessment of sperm concentration were evaluated, and morphology assessment centralized. Lowest sperm concentrations and total counts were detected for Danish men, followed by French and Scottish men. Finnish men had the highest sperm counts. Men from Edinburgh had the highest proportion of motile spermatozoa, followed by men from Turku, Copenhagen and Paris. Only the differences between Paris/Edinburgh and Paris/Turku were statistically significant (P < 0.003 and P < 0.002 respectively). No significant differences in morphology were detected. A general seasonal variation in sperm concentration (summer 70% of winter) and total sperm count (summer 72% of winter) was detected. Semen quality of a 'standardized' man (30 years old, fertile, ejaculation abstinence of 96 h) were estimated. Typically, sperm concentrations (x 10(6)/ml) for winter/summer were: Turku 132/93; Edinburgh 119/84; Paris 103/73; and Copenhagen 98/69. These differences in semen quality may indicate different environmental exposures or lifestyle changes in the four populations. However, it remains to be seen whether such changes can account for these differences. These data may also serve as a reference point for future studies on time trends in semen quality in Europe.

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Regional differences in semen quality in Europe.

Several recent reports have suggested that the sperm counts of normal men are declining in most countries. In this study the sperm counts of Finnish men, and their possible changes during the past 28 years, were investigated. The material consisted of semen samples from 238 normal healthy men of unknown fertility and 5481 men from infertile couples. The means (medians) of semen volume, sperm density and total sperm count in normal men were 3.3 (3.0) ml, 133.9 (94.0) x 10(6)/ml and 396.6 (309.0) x 10(6), respectively. These parameters and the relative frequency distribution of the sperm density were similar to those reported elsewhere in the 1940s. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed a significant decrease in semen volume, whereas sperm density and total sperm count of infertile men had not changed significantly during the past 28 years. In addition, no change in sperm counts was associated with the year of men's birth.

High and unchanged sperm counts of Finnish men.

Objective To assess differences in semen quality between similar populations from Denmark and Finland. Design Comparison of semen quality between 221 Finnish men (of whom 115 had no proven fertility) and 411 Danish men with no proven fertility in two follow-up studies among normal couples trying to conceive. Methods In Finland male partners of couples without experienced infertility attempting to conceive were recruited through advertisements in local newspapers from 1984 to 1986. From 1992 to 1995 Danish men who lived with a partner and who had not attempted to achieve a pregnancy previously were recruited through their union when they discontinued birth control. All semen analyses were performed in accordance with the World Health Organization guidelines. Results Median sperm concentration, total sperm count and the percentage of morphologically normal spermatozoa were significantly higher among the Finnish men without proven fertility (104.0 million/ml, 304.0 million and 58% respectively) compared with the Danish men (53.0 million/ml, 140.8 million, and 41% respectively). Sperm concentration was 105.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 58.1%-167.6%) and total sperm count was 127.4% (95% CI 71.4%-201.6%) higher among Finnish men without proven fertility than among Danish men after control for confounders. Conclusions Some, but hardly all, of the observed difference in semen quality may be explained by differences in recruitment procedures, selection of the men and by methodological differences in semen analysis between the two countries. Also a birth cohort effect may explain some of the differences between countries as the Finnish men were recruited 11 years before the Danish men. Therefore, follow-up studies with identical recruitment and selection of men from the two countries are needed.

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Semen quality among Danish and Finnish men attempting to conceive. The Danish First Pregnancy Planner Study Team

appropriately trained according to their position and specialty.3 Basic life support training was held to be mandatory for all. The working party recommended that a resuscitation training officer be appointed in every acute hospital solely to ensure that training is implemented and cardiac arrests are regularly audited. It has been shown that cardiac arrest survival can be directly correlated with the availability of resuscitation equipment and the expertise of the team called to the arrest.4 This sample of 30 MRCP candidates, ofwhom 63% went on to pass the MRCP examination, were unfamiliar with Resuscitation Council (UK) guidelines. Regular training and familiarisation with the revised (1992) European Council Resuscitation guidelines will save more lives. Resuscitation experience without feedback increases confidence, not skill.5 There is no longer a question of whether it is necessary to train medical staff in these skills: it is imperative that they have regular, compulsory training in resuscitation.

S. Saarikoski

Papers

High and unchanged sperm counts of Finnish men.

Semen quality among Danish and Finnish men attempting to conceive. The Danish First Pregnancy Planner Study Team

Semen quality of Finnish men