Meeting: International Seminar on Information and Communication Technology Statistics, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 19-21 July 2010

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

Chronic diseases contribute a large share of disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Chronic diseases have a tendency to occur simultaneously and where there are two or more such conditions, this is termed as ‘multimorbidity’. Multimorbidity is associated with adverse health outcomes, but limited research has been undertaken in LMICs. Therefore, this study examines the prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity as well as the associations between multimorbidity and self-rated health, activities of daily living (ADLs), quality of life, and depression across six LMICs. Data was obtained from the WHO’s Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Wave-1 (2007/10). This was a cross-sectional population based survey performed in LMICs, namely China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, including 42,236 adults aged 18 years and older. Multimorbidity was measured as the simultaneous presence of two or more of eight chronic conditions including angina pectoris, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, stroke, and vision impairment. Associations with four health outcomes were examined, namely ADL limitation, self-rated health, depression, and a quality of life index. Random-intercept multilevel regression models were used on pooled data from the six countries. The prevalence of morbidity and multimorbidity was 54.2 % and 21.9 %, respectively, in the pooled sample of six countries. Russia had the highest prevalence of multimorbidity (34.7 %) whereas China had the lowest (20.3 %). The likelihood of multimorbidity was higher in older age groups and was lower in those with higher socioeconomic status. In the pooled sample, the prevalence of 1+ ADL limitation was 14 %, depression 5.7 %, self-rated poor health 11.6 %, and mean quality of life score was 54.4. Substantial cross-country variations were seen in the four health outcome measures. The prevalence of 1+ ADL limitation, poor self-rated health, and depression increased whereas quality of life declined markedly with an increase in number of diseases. Findings highlight the challenge of multimorbidity in LMICs, particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups, and the pressing need for reorientation of health care resources considering the distribution of multimorbidity and its adverse effect on health outcomes.

/pdf/the-impact-of-multimorbidity-on-adult-physical-and-mental-4pmvt8ks4a.pdf

The impact of multimorbidity on adult physical and mental health in low- and middle-income countries: what does the study on global ageing and adult health (SAGE) reveal?

The evidence on the economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) remains scarce. We conducted a comprehensive systematic review to establish the magnitude and knowledge gaps in relation to the economic burden of CVD and hypertension on households, health systems and the society. We included studies using primary or secondary data to produce original economic estimates of the impact of CVD. We searched sixteen electronic databases from 1990 onwards without language restrictions. We appraised the quality of included studies using a seven-question assessment tool. Eighty-three studies met the inclusion criteria, most of which were single centre retrospective cost studies conducted in secondary care settings. Studies in China, Brazil, India and Mexico contributed together 50% of the total number of economic estimates identified. The quality of the included studies was generally low. Reporting transparency, particularly for cost data sources and results, was poor. The costs per episode for hypertension and generic CVD were fairly homogeneous across studies; ranging between $500 and $1500. In contrast, for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke cost estimates were generally higher and more heterogeneous, with several estimates in excess of $5000 per episode. The economic perspective and scope of the study appeared to impact cost estimates for hypertension and generic CVD considerably less than estimates for stroke and CHD. Most studies reported monthly costs for hypertension treatment around $22. Average monthly treatment costs for stroke and CHD ranged between $300 and $1000, however variability across estimates was high. In most LMICs both the annual cost of care and the cost of an acute episode exceed many times the total health expenditure per capita. The existing evidence on the economic burden of CVD in LMICs does not appear aligned with policy priorities in terms of research volume, pathologies studied and methodological quality. Not only is more economic research needed to fill the existing gaps, but research quality needs to be drastically improved. More broadly, national-level studies with appropriate sample sizes and adequate incorporation of indirect costs need to replace small-scale, institutional, retrospective cost studies.

/pdf/the-economic-burden-of-cardiovascular-disease-and-4cnpvuae74.pdf

The economic burden of cardiovascular disease and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

The Lancet Commission on diabetes: using data to transform diabetes care and patient lives

Background To understand the full impact of stunting in childhood it is important to consider the long-run effects of undernutrition on the outcomes of adults who were affected in early life. Focusing on the costs of stunting provides a means of evaluating the economic case for investing in childhood nutrition. Methods We review the literature on the association between stunting and undernutrition in childhood and economic outcomes in adulthood. At the national level, we also evaluate the evidence linking stunting to economic growth. Throughout, we consider randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-experimental approaches and observational studies. Results Long-run evaluations of two randomized nutrition interventions indicate substantial returns to the programmes (a 25% and 46% increase in wages for those affected as children, respectively). Cost-benefit analyses of nutrition interventions using calibrated return estimates report a median return of 17.9:1 per child. Assessing the wage premium associated with adult height, we find that a 1-cm increase in stature is associated with a 4% increase in wages for men and a 6% increase in wages for women in our preferred set of studies which attempt to address unobserved confounding and measurement error. In contrast, the evidence on the association between economic growth and stunting is mixed. Conclusions Countries with high rates of stunting, such as those in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, should scale up policies and programmes aiming to reduce child undernutrition as cost-beneficial investments that expand the economic opportunities of their children, better allowing them and their countries to reach their full potential. However, economic growth as a policy will only be effective at reducing the prevalence of stunting when increases in national income are directed at improving the diets of children, addressing gender inequalities and strengthening the status of women, improving sanitation and reducing poverty and inequities.

/pdf/a-review-of-the-evidence-linking-child-stunting-to-economic-235pjjag9w.pdf

A review of the evidence linking child stunting to economic outcomes.

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1288/2013/10/PGDA_WP_107.pdf

The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/nber_w19335.pdf?abstractid=2311584&mirid=1&type=2

The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

Samuel Bakkila

Papers

The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons