Epidemic outbreaks are a special case of supply chain (SC) risks which is distinctively characterized by a long-term disruption existence, disruption propagations (i.e., the ripple effect), and high uncertainty. We present the results of a simulation study that opens some new research tensions on the impact of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) on the global SCs. First, we articulate the specific features that frame epidemic outbreaks as a unique type of SC disruption risks. Second, we demonstrate how simulation-based methodology can be used to examine and predict the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SC performance using the example of coronavirus COVID-19 and anyLogistix simulation and optimization software. We offer an analysis for observing and predicting both short-term and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs along with managerial insights. A set of sensitivity experiments for different scenarios allows illustrating the model's behavior and its value for decision-makers. The major observation from the simulation experiments is that the timing of the closing and opening of the facilities at different echelons might become a major factor that determines the epidemic outbreak impact on the SC performance rather than an upstream disruption duration or the speed of epidemic propagation. Other important factors are lead-time, speed of epidemic propagation, and the upstream and downstream disruption durations in the SC. The outcomes of this research can be used by decision-makers to predict the operative and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs and develop pandemic SC plans. Our approach can also help to identify the successful and wrong elements of risk mitigation/preparedness and recovery policies in case of epidemic outbreaks. The paper is concluded by summarizing the most important insights and outlining future research agenda.

/pdf/predicting-the-impacts-of-epidemic-outbreaks-on-global-1nyswc5jve.pdf

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

A channel of distribution consists of different channel members each having his own decision variables. However, each channel member's decisions do affect the other channel members' profits and, as a consequence, actions. A lack of coordination of these decisions can lead to undesirable consequences. For example, in the simple manufacturer-retailer-consumer channel, uncoordinated and independent channel members' decisions over margins result in a higher price paid by the consumer than if those decisions were coordinated. In addition, the ensuing suboptimal volume leads to lower profits for both the manufacturer and the retailer.

This paper explores the problems inherent in channel coordination. We address the following questions.

---What is the effect of channel coordination?

---What causes a lack of coordination in the channel?

---How difficult is it to achieve channel coordination?

---What mechanisms exist which can achieve channel coordination?

---What are the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanism?

---What is the role of nonprice variables (e.g., manufacturer advertising, retailer shelf-space) in coordination?

---Does the lack of coordination affect normative implications from in-store experimentation?

---Can quantity discounts be a coordination mechanism?

---Are some marketing practices actually disguised quantity discounts?

We review the literature and present a simple formulation illustrating the roots of the coordination problem. We then derive the form of the quantity discount schedule that results in optimum channel profits.

This article was originally published in Marketing Science, Volume 2, Issue 3, pages 239--272, in 1983.

Managing Channel Profits

Risk management plays a vital role in effectively operating supply chains in the presence of a variety of uncertainties. Over the years, many researchers have focused on supply chain risk management (SCRM) by contributing in the areas of defining, operationalising and mitigating risks. In this paper, we review and synthesise the extant literature in SCRM in the past decade in a comprehensive manner. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we present and categorise SCRM research appearing between 2003 and 2013. Second, we undertake a detailed review associated with research developments in supply chain risk definitions, risk types, risk factors and risk management/mitigation strategies. Third, we analyse the SCRM literature in exploring potential gaps.

https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/118650/8.pdf

Supply chain risk management: a literature review

Supply chain coordination: Perspectives, empirical studies and research directions

Supply chain collaboration: making sense of the strategy continuum

http://eio.usc.es/eipc1/base/BASEMASTER/FORMULARIOS-PHP/MATERIALESMASTER/Mat_192405_trabajo%20para%20Borja%20Lafuente.pdf

Buyer vendor coordination models in supply chain management

This paper investigates a reward-driven policy, employed in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC), for acquiring used products earmarked for remanufacture. Under the examined model, a single manufacturer sells products through a retailer as well as directly to end users in a forward supply chain. In the reverse supply chain, three different modes of collection are employed to capture used products for remanufacture: they are through a third party, directly by the manufacturer and from the retailer. Mathematical models for both non-cooperative and centralised scenarios are developed to characterise the pricing decisions and remanufacturing strategies that indicate individual and overall supply chain performance. Optimality of all the proposed models is examined with theory. To coordinate and achieve a win–win outcome for channel members, we proposed a three-way discount mechanism for the manufacturer. Extended numerical investigation provides insights on ways to manage an efficient reward-driven CLSC in a dual...

Dual channel closed-loop supply chain coordination with a reward-driven remanufacturing policy

Price competition and co-operation in a duopoly closed-loop supply chain

In this paper, a supplier selection problem is studied under risks of supplier failure due to the catastrophic events disruption. An analytical model is developed to determine the optimal number of suppliers considering different failure probability, capacity, and compensation. An algorithm is designed to find the optimal solution and numerical study is carried out to illustrate the model. Results of numerical study and sensitivity analysis provide useful guidelines for managers to select the optimal number of suppliers under the risks of supply disruption.

Sourcing decisions under risks of catastrophic event disruptions

This paper investigates an order allocation problem of a manufacturer/buyer among multiple suppliers under the risks of supply disruption. A mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model is developed for order allocation considering different capacity, failure probability and quantity discounts for each supplier. We have shown that the formulated problem is NP-hard in nature and genetic algorithm (GA) approach is used to solve it. The model is illustrated through a numerical study and the result portrays that the cost of supplier has more influence on order quantity allocation rather than supplier’s failure probability.

Sarada Prasad Sarmah

Papers

Buyer vendor coordination models in supply chain management

Dual channel closed-loop supply chain coordination with a reward-driven remanufacturing policy

Price competition and co-operation in a duopoly closed-loop supply chain

Sourcing decisions under risks of catastrophic event disruptions

Multiple sourcing under supplier failure risk and quantity discount: A genetic algorithm approach