The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

Supernova theory, numerical and analytic, has made remarkable progress in the past decade. This progress was made possible by more sophisticated simulation tools, especially for neutrino transport, improved microphysics, and deeper insights into the role of hydrodynamic instabilities. Violent, large-scale nonradial mass motions are generic in supernova cores. The neutrino-heating mechanism, aided by nonradial flows, drives explosions, albeit low-energy ones, of O-Ne-Mg-core and some Fe-core progenitors. The characteristics of the neutrino emission from newborn neutron stars were revised, new features of the gravitational-wave signals were discovered, our notion of supernova nucleosynthesis was shattered, and our understanding of pulsar kicks and explosion asymmetries was significantly improved. But simulations also suggest that neutrino-powered explosions might not explain the most energetic supernovae and hypernovae, which seem to demand magnetorotational driving. Now that modeling is being advanced from...

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-nucl-102711-094901

Explosion Mechanisms of Core-Collapse Supernovae

We present results of a systematic study of failing core-collapse supernovae and the formation of stellar-mass black holes (BHs). Using our open-source general-relativistic 1.5D code GR1D equipped with a three-species neutrino leakage/heating scheme and over 100 presupernova models, we study the effects of the choice of nuclear equation
of state (EOS), zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass and metallicity, rotation, and mass-loss prescription on
BH formation. We find that the outcome, for a given EOS, can be estimated, to first order, by a single parameter,
the compactness of the stellar core at bounce. By comparing protoneutron star (PNS) structure at the onset
of gravitational instability with solutions of the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkof equations, we find that thermal
pressure support in the outer PNS core is responsible for raising the maximum PNS mass by up to 25% above the
cold NS value. By artificially increasing neutrino heating, we find the critical neutrino heating efficiency required
for exploding a given progenitor structure and connect these findings with ZAMS conditions, establishing, albeit
approximately, for the first time based on actual collapse simulations, the mapping between ZAMS parameters and
the outcome of core collapse. We also study the effect of progenitor rotation and find that the dimensionless spin of
nascent BHs may be robustly limited below a* = Jc/GM^2 = 1 by the appearance of nonaxisymmetric rotational
instabilities.

/pdf/black-hole-formation-in-failing-core-collapse-supernovae-33c55lmghq.pdf

Black hole formation in failing core-collapse supernovae

Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes.

Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable

Progress of theoretical physics

We present the gravitational wave (GW) analysis of an extensive series of 3D MHD core-collapse simulations. Our 25 models are launched from a 15 solar mass progenitor, a spherically symmetric effective general relativistic potential, the Lattimer-Swesty or the Shen equation of state (EoS), and a neutrino parametrisation scheme which is accurate until about 5ms postbounce. For 3 representative models, we also include long-term neutrino physics by means of a leakage scheme. Non- or only slowly rotating models show GW emission due to prompt and proto-neutron star convection, allowing the distinction between the two different nuclear EoS. For moderately or fast rotation rates models, we find, in agreement with recent results, only a type I GW signature at core bounce. Models which are set up with an initial central angular velocity of >~ 2pi rad/s emit GWs due to the low T/|W| dynamical instability during the postbounce phase. Weak B-fields do not notably influence the dynamical evolution of the core and thus the GW emission. However, for strong initial poloidal B-fields (~1e12 G),flux-freezing and field winding leads to conditions where P_{mag}/P_{mat} ~ 1, causing the onset of a jet-like supernova explosion and hence the emission of a type IV GW signal. In contradiction to axisymmetric simulations, we find evidence that nonaxisymmetric fluid modes can counteract or even suppress jet formation for models with strong initial toroidal B-fields. We point out that the inclusion of the deleptonisation during the postbounce phase is an indispensable issue for the quantitative prediction of GWs from core-collapse supernovae, as it can alter the GW amplitude up to a factor of 10 compared to a pure hydrodynamical treatment.

/pdf/the-influence-of-model-parameters-on-the-prediction-of-57pnou3dfb.pdf

The influence of model parameters on the prediction of gravitational wave signals from stellar core collapse

We present a gravitational wave (GW) analysis of an extensive series of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical core-collapse simulations. Our 25 models are based on a 15  progenitor stemming from (i) stellar evolution calculations; (ii) a spherically symmetric effective general relativistic potential, either the Lattimer-Swesty (with three possible compressibilities) or the Shen equation of state for hot, dense matter; and (iii) a neutrino parametrisation scheme that is accurate until about 5 ms postbounce. For three representative models, we also included long-term neutrino physics by means of a leakage scheme, which is based on partial implementation of the isotropic diffusion source approximation (IDSA). We systematically investigated the effects of the equation of state, the initial rotation rate, and both the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields on the GW signature. We stress the importance of including of postbounce neutrino physics, since it quantitatively alters the GW signature. Slowly rotating models, or those that do not rotate at all, show GW emission caused by prompt and proto-neutron star (PNS) convection. Moreover, the signal stemming from prompt convection allows for the distinction between the two different nuclear equations of state indirectly by different properties of the fluid instabilities. For simulations with moderate or even fast rotation rates, we only find the axisymmetric type I wave signature at core bounce. In line with recent results, we could confirm that the maximum GW amplitude scales roughly linearly with the ratio of rotational to gravitational energy at core bounce below a threshold value of about 10%. We point out that models set up with an initial central angular velocity of 2π rad s-1 or faster show nonaxisymmetric narrow-band GW radiation during the postbounce phase. This emission process is caused by a low T /| W | dynamical instability. Apart from these two points, we show that it is generally very difficult to discern the effects of the individual features of the input physics in a GW signal from a rotating core-collapse supernova that can be attributed unambiguously to a specific model. Weak magnetic fields do not notably influence the dynamical evolution of the core and thus the GW emission. However, for strong initial poloidal magnetic fields (≳ 1012  G), the combined action of flux-freezing and field winding leads to conditions where the ratio of magnetic field pressure to matter pressure reaches about unity which leads to the onset of a jet-like supernova explosion. The collimated bipolar out-stream of matter is then reflected in the emission of a type IV GW signal. In contradiction to axisymmetric simulations, we find evidence that nonaxisymmetric fluid modes can counteract or even suppress jet formation for models with strong initial toroidal magnetic fields. The results of models with continued neutrino emission show that including of the deleptonisation during the postbounce phase is an indispensable issue for the quantitative prediction of GWs from core-collapse supernovae, because it can alter the GW amplitude up to a factor of 10 compared to a pure hydrodynamical treatment. Our collapse simulations indicate that corresponding events in our Galaxy would be detectable either by LIGO, if the source is rotating, or at least by the advanced LIGO detector, if it is not or only slowly rotating.

/pdf/the-influence-of-model-parameters-on-the-prediction-of-2cqz1rmj84.pdf

We present the gravitational wave analyses from rotating (model s15g) and nearly non-rotating (model s15h) 3D MHD core collapse supernova simulations at bounce and during the first couple of ten milliseconds afterwards. The simulations are launched from 15 M� progenitor models stemming from stellar-evolution calculations. Gravity is implemented by a spherically symmetric effective general relativistic potential. The input physics uses the Lattimer-Swesty equation of state for hot, dense matter and a neutrino parametrisation scheme that is accurate until the first few ms after bounce. The 3D simulations allow us to study features already known from 2D simulations, as well as nonaxisymmetric effects. In agreement with recent results, we find only type I gravitational wave signals at core bounce. In the later stage of the simulations, one of our models (s15g) shows nonaxisymmetric gravitational wave emission caused by a low T/|W| dynamical instability, while the other model radiates gravitational waves due to a convective instability in the protoneutron star. The total energy released in gravitational waves within the considered time intervals is 1.52 × 10 −7 M� (s15g) and 4.72 × 10 −10 M� (s15h). Both core collapse simulations indicate that corresponding events in our Galaxy would be detectable either by the LIGO or Advanced LIGO detector.

/pdf/gravitational-waves-from-3d-mhd-core-collapse-simulations-wlmzqtoqr2.pdf

Gravitational waves from 3D MHD core collapse simulations

We present a flexible and scalable method for computing global solutions of high-dimensional stochastic dynamic models. Within a time iteration or value function iteration setup, we interpolate functions using an adaptive sparse grid algorithm. With increasing dimensions, sparse grids grow much more slowly than standard tensor product grids. Moreover, adaptivity adds a second layer of sparsity, as grid points are added only where they are most needed, for instance in regions with steep gradients or at non-differentiabilities. To further speed up the solution process, our implementation is fully hybrid parallel, combining distributed and shared memory parallelization paradigms, and thus allows for an efficient use of high-performance computing architectures. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our method, we apply it to two very different dynamic models: First, to high-dimensional international real business cycle models with capital adjustment costs and irreversible investment. Second, to multi-good menu-cost models with temporary sales and economies of scope in price setting.

/pdf/using-adaptive-sparse-grids-to-solve-high-dimensional-26lxis6ge8.pdf

Using Adaptive Sparse Grids to Solve High-Dimensional Dynamic Models

We present the gravitational wave analysis from rotating (model s15g) and nearly non-rotating (model s15h) 3D MHD core collapse supernova simulations at bounce and the first couple of ten milliseconds afterwards. The simulations are launched from 15M_{\odot} progenitor models stemming from stellar evolution calculations. Gravity is implemented by a spherically symmetric effective general relativistic potential. The input physics uses the Lattimer-Swesty equation of state for hot, dense matter and a neutrino parametrisation scheme that is accurate until the first few ms after bounce. The 3D simulations allow us to study features already known from 2D simulations as well as nonaxisymmetric effects. In agreement with recent results we find only type I gravitational wave signals at core bounce. In the later stage of the simulations, one of our models (s15g) shows nonaxisymmetric gravitational wave emission caused by a low T/|W| dynamical instability, while the other model radiates gravitational waves due to a convective instability in the protoneutron star. The total energy released in gravitational waves within the considered time intervals is 1.52\times10^{-7}M_{\odot} (s15g) and 4.72\times10^{-10}M_{\odot} (s15h). Both core collapse simulations indicate that corresponding events in our Galaxy would be detectable either by the LIGO or Advanced LIGO detector.

/pdf/gravitational-waves-from-3d-mhd-core-collapse-simulations-3m9fq8j3h4.pdf

Simon Scheidegger

Papers

The influence of model parameters on the prediction of gravitational wave signals from stellar core collapse

The influence of model parameters on the prediction of gravitational wave signals from stellar core collapse

Gravitational waves from 3D MHD core collapse simulations

Using Adaptive Sparse Grids to Solve High-Dimensional Dynamic Models

Gravitational waves from 3D MHD core collapse simulations