The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

/pdf/planetary-boundaries-guiding-human-development-on-a-changing-5gmf909etg.pdf

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.

The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009

The monthly global 2° × 2° Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) has been revised and updated from version 4 to version 5. This update incorporates a new release of ICOADS release 3.0 (R3.0), a decade of near-surface data from Argo floats, and a new estimate of centennial sea ice from HadISST2. A number of choices in aspects of quality control, bias adjustment, and interpolation have been substantively revised. The resulting ERSST estimates have more realistic spatiotemporal variations, better representation of high-latitude SSTs, and ship SST biases are now calculated relative to more accurate buoy measurements, while the global long-term trend remains about the same. Progressive experiments have been undertaken to highlight the effects of each change in data source and analysis technique upon the final product. The reconstructed SST is systematically decreased by 0.077°C, as the reference data source is switched from ship SST in ERSSTv4 to modern buoy SST in ERSSTv5. Furthermore...

/pdf/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-version-5-30hfdwlyxj.pdf

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons

Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) translates emissions and resource extractions into a limited number of environmental impact scores by means of so-called characterisation factors. There are two mainstream ways to derive characterisation factors, i.e. at midpoint level and at endpoint level. To further progress LCIA method development, we updated the ReCiPe2008 method to its version of 2016. This paper provides an overview of the key elements of the ReCiPe2016 method. We implemented human health, ecosystem quality and resource scarcity as three areas of protection. Endpoint characterisation factors, directly related to the areas of protection, were derived from midpoint characterisation factors with a constant mid-to-endpoint factor per impact category. We included 17 midpoint impact categories. The update of ReCiPe provides characterisation factors that are representative for the global scale instead of the European scale, while maintaining the possibility for a number of impact categories to implement characterisation factors at a country and continental scale. We also expanded the number of environmental interventions and added impacts of water use on human health, impacts of water use and climate change on freshwater ecosystems and impacts of water use and tropospheric ozone formation on terrestrial ecosystems as novel damage pathways. Although significant effort has been put into the update of ReCiPe, there is still major improvement potential in the way impact pathways are modelled. Further improvements relate to a regionalisation of more impact categories, moving from local to global species extinction and adding more impact pathways. Life cycle impact assessment is a fast evolving field of research. ReCiPe2016 provides a state-of-the-art method to convert life cycle inventories to a limited number of life cycle impact scores on midpoint and endpoint level.

/pdf/recipe2016-a-harmonised-life-cycle-impact-assessment-method-igx7h71aru.pdf

ReCiPe2016: a harmonised life cycle impact assessment method at midpoint and endpoint level

Report summarizing climate change issues in 2013, with an emphasis on physical science. It includes a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions.

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

BACKGROUND: Intracanalicular vestibular schwannomas have a range of treatment options that can preserve hearing: microsurgery, stereotactic radiotherapy, and conservative observation. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the natural course of hearing deterioration during a period of conservative observation. METHODS: A retrospective case review was performed on 47 patients with a unilateral intracanalicular vestibular schwannoma. Evaluation of growth was monitored by repeat MRI scanning. Repeated pure-tone and speech audiometry results were evaluated for subgroups of patients showing growth or no growth and by subsite location of tumor in the internal auditory canal. RESULTS: Patients had a mean follow-up of 3.6 years. Over the entire population, the pure-tone average thresholds at 0.5, 1, 2, and 3 kHz and the word recognition scores both significantly deteriorated from 38 to 51 dB HL, and from 66% to 55%, respectively. Overall, 74% of subjects with good hearing, according to the 50/50 rule, maintained hearing above this rule. There were no significant differences in hearing loss by subsite in the internal auditory canal (porus, fundus, central) or by growth status (stable, growing, shrinking). Only 6 patients showed a large hearing change. This happened early during follow-up, with relatively stable hearing after this. CONCLUSION: Hearing will deteriorate in some intracanalicular vestibular schwannomas, regardless of tumor growth. Hearing deterioration, if on a large scale, most likely occurs early in follow-up. The present results using conservative management in these tumors appear similar to those reported for stereotactic radiotherapy or microsurgery.

Natural history of hearing deterioration in intracanalicular vestibular schwannoma

This study examined the proportion of men and women reporting previous traumatic brain injury (TBI) in an Ontario (Canada) prison sample by demographic characteristics; adverse life experiences; and criminal, drug, and alcohol use history. Using data from The Cost of Substance Abuse in Canada study based on a random sample from four Ontario prisons, this study found 50.4% of males and 38% of females reporting previous TBI. More TBIs occurred before the first crime for women than for men. Women with TBI experienced more early physical and sexual abuse than those without TBI. Additionally, this study shows high prevalence of early life experiences among persons, particularly women, with a history of TBI. Prisoners and prison staff should be educated on TBI and best practice for rehabilitation of TBI.

Traumatic Brain Injury and Early Life Experiences Among Men and Women in a Prison Population

Background: The literature has opposing views regarding the magnitude of the association between substance use and TBI. Most studies have examined clinical samples which are not representative of the entire head injured population. Clinical samples provide very limited insight into TBI patients whom do not seek care. Objectives: This paper examines the associations between TBI and substance use/misuse. Its primary aim is to test whether or not individuals with a past-year TBI have higher rates of substance use/misuse than Canadians without a TBI or back and/or spine injury controls drawing on self-report population level data. Methods: Using the 2009-2010 Canadian Community Health Survey, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of Canadians 12 years and older, this paper assessed substance use (i.e., illicit drug use; drinking and binge drinking; current smoking) among those with a TBI, as compared to two control groups: (1) individuals with a back or spinal injury (BSI); and (2) health...

Stefan Allen

Papers

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

Natural history of hearing deterioration in intracanalicular vestibular schwannoma

Traumatic Brain Injury and Early Life Experiences Among Men and Women in a Prison Population

Examining the Relationship Between Traumatic Brain Injury and Substance Use Outcomes in the Canadian Population

Life of Cardinal Gibbons, Archbishop of Baltimore