According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

Out of the Crisis

https://research.birmingham.ac.uk/portal/files/53643809/APEN2017.pdf

Performance-based health monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for condition-based maintenance of gas turbines: A review

This review provides a detailed discussion of the historical development of fluidic oscillators and their application to flow control. Fluidic oscillators were initially developed in the 1960’s for a variety of applications, and have seen resurgent interest for their suitability for modern flow control applications. The devices produce an oscillating jet of fluid over a wide fan angle and have no moving parts, making them an attractive actuator concept. This review aims to highlight the most important historical papers of relevance to modern fluidic oscillator development. The reviewed works will extend from the early 1960’s to the most recent investigations, with a focus on the fundamental operating mechanisms of fluidic oscillators. The authors present this review as a short synopsis of fluidic oscillators for flow control, while a more comprehensive review will be submitted for archival publication in the near future.

A Review of Fluidic Oscillator Development

Heat transfer—A review of 2005 literature

A novel fluidic oscillator, particularly suitable to serve as the key element in actuators for control of fluid flows, was proposed and experimentally investigated. Its core part, as in known oscillators, is a fluidic bistable jet-deflection diverter amplifier. The unique feature of the new layout is the absence of the closed feedback loop channels. Instead, there is a quarter-wave Helmholtz resonator tube connected to one of the amplifier control terminals. The acoustic waves traveling in it and reflected from its open end cause the phase-delayed switching of the amplifier. The main advantage is high achievable oscillation frequency and no dependence on the flow rate.

New Fluidic-Oscillator Concept for Flow-Separation Control

Systematic simulation based approach for the identification and implementation of a scheduling rule in the aircraft engine maintenance

This paper presents a novel technique for automatic change detection of the performance of gas turbines. In addition to change detection the proposed technique has the ability to perform a prognosis of measurement values. The proposed technique is deemed to be new in the field of gas turbine monitoring and forms the basic building block of a patent pending filed by the authors [1]. The technique used is called Bayesian Forecasting and is applied to Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs). The idea of Bayesian Forecasting is based on Bayes’ Theorem, which enables the calculation of conditional probabilities. In combination with DLMs (which break down the chronological sequence of the observed parameter into mathematical components like value, gradient, etc.) Bayesian Forecasting can be used to calculate probability density functions prior to the next observation, so called forecast distributions. The change detection is carried out by comparing the current model with an alternative model which mean value is shifted by a prescribed offset. If the forecast distribution of the alternative model better fits the actual observation, a potential change is detected. To determine whether the respective observation is a single outlier or the first observation of a significant change, a special logic is developed. Studies have shown that a confident change detection is possible for a change height of only 1.5 times the standard deviation of the observed signal. In terms of prognostic abilities the proposed technique not only estimates the point of time of a potential limit exceedance of respective parameters, but also calculates confidence bounds as well as probability density and cumulative distribution functions for the prognosis.Copyright © 2009 by ASME

Application of Bayesian Forecasting to Change Detection and Prognosis of Gas Turbine Performance

Secondary effects, such as heat transfer from fluid to engine structure and the resulting changes in tip and seal clearances affect component performance and stability. A tip clearance model to be used in transient synthesis codes has been developed. The tip clearance model is derived as a state space structure. The model parameters have been identified from thermomechanical finite element models. The model calculates symmetric rotor tip clearance changes in the turbomachinery and symmetric seal clearance changes in the secondary air system for engine transients within the entire flight envelope. The resulting changes in efficiency, capacity, and cooling airflows are fed into the performance program. Corrections for tip clearance changes on the component characteristics are derived from rig tests. The effect of seal clearance changes on the secondary air system is derived using sophisticated air system models. The clearance model is validated against FE thermomechanical models. The modeling method of modifying the component characteristics is verified comparing engine simulation and test data, which show good agreement. Based on a representative transient maneuver typical transient overshoots in fuel flow and turbine gas temperature and changes in component stability margins can be shown. With the use of this model in the performance synthesis the transient engine performance can be predicted more accurate than currently in the engine development program.

Modeling and Validation of the Thermal Effects on Gas Turbine Transients

The change of performance parameters over time due to engine deterioration and production scatter plays an important role to ensure safe and economical engine operation. A tool has been developed which is able to model production scatter and engine deterioration on the basis of elementary changes of numerous construction features. In order to consider the characteristics of an engine fleet as well as random environmental influences, a probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was chosen. To quantify the impact of feature deviations on performance relevant metrics, nonlinear sensitivity functions are used to obtain scalars and offsets on turbomachinery maps, which reflect module behavior during operation. Probability density functions (PDFs) of user-defined performance parameters of an engine fleet are then calculated by performing a MCS in a performance synthesis program. For the validation of the developed methodology pass-off test data, endurance engine test data, as well as data from engine maintenance, incoming tests have been used. For this purpose, measured engine fleet performance data have been corrected by statistically eliminating the influence of measuring errors. The validation process showed the model’s ability to predict more than 90% of the measured performance variance. Furthermore, predicted performance trends correspond well to performance data from engines in operation. Two model enhancements are presented, the first of which is intended for maintenance cost prediction. It is able to generate PDFs of failure times for different features. The second enhancement correlates feature change and operating conditions and thus connects airline operation and maintenance costs. Subsequently, it is shown that the model developed is a powerful tool to assist in aircraft engine design and production processes, thanks to its ability to identify and quantitatively assess main drivers for performance variance and trends.

Stephan Staudacher

Papers

Systematic simulation based approach for the identification and implementation of a scheduling rule in the aircraft engine maintenance

Application of Bayesian Forecasting to Change Detection and Prognosis of Gas Turbine Performance

Modeling and Validation of the Thermal Effects on Gas Turbine Transients

Probabilistic Engine Performance Scatter and Deterioration Modeling

Modeling Particle Deposition Effects in Aircraft Engine Compressors