1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with a multifactor error structure where the unobserved common factors are (possibly) correlated with exogenously given individual-specific regressors, and the factor loadings differ over the cross section units. The basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to filter the individual-specific regressors by means of (weighted) cross-section aggregates such that asymptotically as the cross-section dimension (N) tends to infinity the differential effects of unobserved common factors are eliminated. The estimation procedure has the advantage that it can be computed by OLS applied to an auxiliary regression where the observed regressors are augmented by (weighted) cross sectional averages of the dependent variable and the individual specific regressors. Two different but related problems are addressed: one that concerns the coefficients of the individual-specific regressors, and the other that focusses on the mean of the individual coefficients assumed random. In both cases appropriate estimators, referred to as common correlated effects (CCE) estimators, are proposed and their asymptotic distribution as N with T (the time-series dimension) fixed or as N and T (jointly) are derived under different regularity conditions. One important feature of the proposed CCE mean group (CCEMG) estimator is its invariance to the (unknown but fixed) number of unobserved common factors as N and T (jointly). The small sample properties of the various pooled estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments that confirm the theoretical derivations and show that the pooled estimators have generally satisfactory small sample properties even for relatively small values of N and T.

Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

/pdf/the-theory-of-industrial-organization-19bejph0ej.pdf

The Theory of Industrial Organization

This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy. This paper proposes two important extensions of previous research (see Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner, 2004). First, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. Also using average pair-wise cross-section error correlations, the GVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international comovements of business cycles. Second, in addition to generalised impulse response functions, we propose an identification scheme to derive structural impulse responses. We focus on identification of shocks to the US economy, particularly the monetary policy shocks, and consider the time profiles of their effects on the euro area. To this end we include the US model as the first country model and consider alternative orderings of the US variables. Further to the US monetary policy shock, we also consider oil price, US equity and US real output shocks.

Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis

/pdf/exploring-the-international-linkages-of-the-euro-area-a-2945ovql4y.pdf

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis

We assess claims that OPEC's ability to influence real oil prices has diminished and that the relationship between real oil prices and OPEC production can be used to test competing hypotheses about OPEC behavior. An econometric analysis indicates that there is a statistically significant relationship among real oil prices, OPEC capacity utilization, OPEC quotas, the degree to which OPEC exceeds these production quotas, and OECD stocks of crude oil. These variables "Granger cause" real oil prices but real oil prices do not "Granger cause" these variables. These results imply that OPEC influences oil prices and that previous models cannot be used to test competing models for OPEC production behavior. The effect of OECD oil stocks on real oil prices indicates that there may be an important externality in private decisions regarding optimal crude oil stocks.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/41323358

Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices

This paper attempts to assess the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China and its effects on the whole economy. After presenting the main theoretical contributions and the previous works done about China’s inward-FDI, an empirical study has been implemented extending the previous ones with a different data set (more recent) and with different methodologies. The traditional determinants of FDI seem to be relevant for China: domestic market size, cost advantages and openness to the rest of the world. Concerning the consequences of FDI on the Chinese economy, our empirical evidence supports the view that FDI affects China’s growth through the diffusion of ideas. Through the introduction of new ideas, multinational firms develop technical progress and hence long-run economic growth. The transmission of ideas seems to have had a positive effect on the Chinese growth.

Foreign Direct Investment in China: Determinants and Effects

https://ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document-conference/ecomod2003/Dees.pdf

Stephane Dees

Papers

Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis

Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices

Foreign Direct Investment in China: Determinants and Effects

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model