Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Extinction risk from climate change

Global energy consumption is projected to increase, even in the face of substantial declines in energy intensity, at least 2-fold by midcentury relative to the present because of population and economic growth. This demand could be met, in principle, from fossil energy resources, particularly coal. However, the cumulative nature of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere demands that holding atmospheric CO2 levels to even twice their preanthropogenic values by midcentury will require invention, development, and deployment of schemes for carbon-neutral energy production on a scale commensurate with, or larger than, the entire present-day energy supply from all sources combined. Among renewable energy resources, solar energy is by far the largest exploitable resource, providing more energy in 1 hour to the earth than all of the energy consumed by humans in an entire year. In view of the intermittency of insolation, if solar energy is to be a major primary energy source, it must be stored and dispatched on demand to the end user. An especially attractive approach is to store solar-converted energy in the form of chemical bonds, i.e., in a photosynthetic process at a year-round average efficiency significantly higher than current plants or algae, to reduce land-area requirements. Scientific challenges involved with this process include schemes to capture and convert solar energy and then store the energy in the form of chemical bonds, producing oxygen from water and a reduced fuel such as hydrogen, methane, methanol, or other hydrocarbon species.

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Powering the planet: Chemical challenges in solar energy utilization

On a global scale climatic changes driven by human activities are typically projected to increase from 1° C to 5° C per 100 years a rate of change that is an order of magnitude greater than that typically experienced naturally. Such a potentially dramatic change in climate could easily cause dramatic biological responses including extinction. Species show a wide range of responses to climate and consequently the response of different species of plants and animals to climatic change will be quite variable. This implies a likelihood for a disassembling of natural communities and for transient, nonequivalent restructuring of habitats as climatic change unfolds. Validated models that help forecast these events are needed to aid scientists in better understanding the ecological ramifications of global climatic change. Also, and perhaps more important for conservation biology, such validated models can help provide probabilities for the occurrence of these events, which will allow policy makers to make better, informed decisions. Typically, the study plots of most ecological field work are telecommunications, while the smallest resolved scales in global climatic models are about 500 × 500 km. Computer limitations preclude significant reduction in scales of climatic models. Consequently, more multi-species ecological studies are needed over broad geographic and long temporal scales. We provide an example of large-scale ecological response studies, namely the case of wintering North American birds. We also provide an example of attempts to translate results of large-scale climatic models (at a 500 × 500 km scale) to a mesoscale (50 × 50 km). Participation of climatologists with ecologists at early stages in research planning can help bridge the scale mismatch between climatic and ecological measurement, and provide more reliable estimates of community responses to century-long, time-evolving patterns of climatic change. We are convinced that many more such interdisciplinary research attempts are urgently needed if the scientific community is to produce information useful to the development of conservation strategies. Such strategies might help to mitigate potential negative consequences of global climatic changes before they manifest themselves irreversibly in nature.



A una escala global los cambios climaaticos generador por actividades humanas estan tipicamente proyectados para producir un incremento del 1 a 5° C en 100 anos, esta taza de cambio es de un orden de magnitud mayor que la experimentada naturalmente. Este dramatico cambio potencial puede facilmente producir dramaticas respuestas biologicas (incluyendo extincion). Las especies que muestran un amplio rango de respuestas al clima, y consecuentemente la respuesta de diferentes especies de plantas y animales a cambios climaticos va a ser significativamente variable. Esto implica la posibilidad de un desmembramiento de comunidades naturales y una reestructuracion desequilibrada y transitoria de habitats a medida que los cambios climaticos ocurran. Modelos validos que ayuden a predecir estos eventos son necesarios para ayudar a los cientificos a una mejor comprension de las ramificaciones ecologicas de los cambios climaticos globales. Adicionalmente, y posiblemente mas importante para la conservacion biologica, es la validacion de estos modelos que puede ayudar a proveer probabilidades de ocurrencia de estos eventos, los cuales pueden ayudar a los encargados de la toma de decisiones a realizar mejores decisiones con mas informacion. Tipicamente, el trabajo de campo de la mayoria de los estudios ecologicos son del tamano de canchas de tenis, mientras que la menor escala en modelos climaticos globales es de aproximadamente 500 × 500 km. Obviamenteexiste una gran diferencia en escala. Limitaciones computacionales impiden significativamente la reduccion en las escalas de modelos climaticos. Consecuentemente, mas estudios ecologicos multiespecificos, son necesarios sobre una amplia escala geografica y temporal. Nosotros proveemos un ejemplo de un estudio de respuestas ecologicas a gran escala, como el caso de los pajaros del invierno en Norte America. Nosotros tambien proveemos un ejemplo que intenta trasladar los resultados de un modelo climatico a gran escala (500 × 500 km) a un modelo de escala media (i.e., 50 × 50 km). La participacion de climatologos y ecologos en los estadios tempranos del planeamiento de una investigacion puede ayudar a salvar las diferencias de escalas entre las medidas climaticas y las ecologicas y proveer estimaciones mas confiables de las respuestas de la comunidad a cambios climaticos de siglos de duracion y que evolucionen con el tiempo. Nosotros estamos convencidos que macho mas de estos intentos de investigacion interdisciplinaria son urgentemente necesarios si la comunidad cientifica desea producir informacion que sea util para el desarrollo de estrategias de conservacion. Este tipo de estrategias pueden ayudar a mitigar las consecuencias negativas potenciales de los cambios climaticos globales antes de que estos se manifiesten irreversiblente en la naturaleza.

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Can Large-Scale Climatic Models Be Linked with Multiscale Ecological Studies? *

This study concerns analysis of climatic variability in general circulation models, first to determine how faithfully the models reproduce measures of the present variability, and then to examine how variability changes in CO2 perturbed cases. The control run output of three different versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model is examined for selected regions of the United States including the Great Plains, the Southeast, the Great Lakes region, and the upper West Coast. Mainly temperature and precipitation are analyzed, but some preliminary analysis of relative humidity is also included. Inter annual variability is analyzed in one version (Chervin) for only the present day climate. Results indicate that this version underestimates the interannual variability of temperature, but generally successfully reproduces the relative variability of precipitation. Two versions of the CCM tend to overestimate daily temperature variability while the third (Dickinson) accurately reproduces or underestimates it. Reasons for these differences are discussed. Daily precipitation variability is overestimated by two model versions (Chervin and Dickinson) but fairly well reproduced by the Washington version. The CO2 perturbed run of one version (Washington) produces mixed results for changes in daily temperature variability and tends to produce increased daily variability for precipitation.

Analysis of climate variability in general circulation models: Comparison with observations and changes in variability in 2xCO2 experiments

Schemes to modify large-scale environment systems or control climate have been proposed for over 50 years to (i) increase temperatures in high latitudes, (ii) increase precipitation, (iii) decrease sea ice, (iv) create irrigation opportunities, or (v) offset potential global warming by injecting iron in the oceans or sea-salt aerosol in the marine boundary layer or spreading dust in the stratosphere to reflect away an amount of solar energy equivalent to the amount of heat trapped by increased greenhouse gases from human activities. These and other proposed geoengineering schemes are briefly reviewed. Recent schemes to intentionally modify climate have been proposed as either cheaper methods to counteract inadvertent climatic modifications than conventional mitigation techniques such as carbon taxes or pollutant emissions regulations or as a counter to rising emissions as governments delay policy action. Whereas proponents argue cost-effectiveness or the need to be prepared if mitigation and adaptation policies are not strong enough or enacted quickly enough to avoid the worst widespread impacts, critics point to the uncertainty that (i) any geoengineering scheme would work as planned or (ii) that the many centuries of international political stability and cooperation needed for the continuous maintenance of such schemes to offset century-long inadvertent effects is socially feasible. Moreover, the potential exists for transboundary conflicts should negative climatic events occur during geoengineering activities.

http://www.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs/Climatechange/Roy%20Soc%20November%202008/Schneider.pdf

Geoengineering: could we or should we make it work?

Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more '...

Imaginable surprise in global change science

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/186/4170/1163.full.pdf

Stephen H. Schneider

Papers

Can Large-Scale Climatic Models Be Linked with Multiscale Ecological Studies? *

Analysis of climate variability in general circulation models: Comparison with observations and changes in variability in 2xCO2 experiments

Geoengineering: could we or should we make it work?

Imaginable surprise in global change science

Climate Stabilization: For Better or for Worse?