Distributionally robust optimization is a paradigm for decision making under uncertainty where the uncertain problem data are governed by a probability distribution that is itself subject to uncertainty. The distribution is then assumed to belong to an ambiguity set comprising all distributions that are compatible with the decision maker's prior information. In this paper, we propose a unifying framework for modeling and solving distributionally robust optimization problems. We introduce standardized ambiguity sets that contain all distributions with prescribed conic representable confidence sets and with mean values residing on an affine manifold. These ambiguity sets are highly expressive and encompass many ambiguity sets from the recent literature as special cases. They also allow us to characterize distributional families in terms of several classical and/or robust statistical indicators that have not yet been studied in the context of robust optimization. We determine conditions under which distributionally robust optimization problems based on our standardized ambiguity sets are computationally tractable. We also provide tractable conservative approximations for problems that violate these conditions.

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Distributionally Robust Convex Optimization

http://www.optimization-online.org/DB_FILE/2012/07/3537.pdf

Recent advances in robust optimization: An overview☆

We develop tractable semidefinite programming based approximations for distributionally robust individual and joint chance constraints, assuming that only the first- and second-order moments as well as the support of the uncertain parameters are given. It is known that robust chance constraints can be conservatively approximated by Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraints. We first prove that this approximation is exact for robust individual chance constraints with concave or (not necessarily concave) quadratic constraint functions, and we demonstrate that the Worst-Case CVaR can be computed efficiently for these classes of constraint functions. Next, we study the Worst-Case CVaR approximation for joint chance constraints. This approximation affords intuitive dual interpretations and is provably tighter than two popular benchmark approximations. The tightness depends on a set of scaling parameters, which can be tuned via a sequential convex optimization algorithm. We show that the approximation becomes essentially exact when the scaling parameters are chosen optimally and that the Worst-Case CVaR can be evaluated efficiently if the scaling parameters are kept constant. We evaluate our joint chance constraint approximation in the context of a dynamic water reservoir control problem and numerically demonstrate its superiority over the two benchmark approximations.

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Distributionally robust joint chance constraints with second-order moment information

Distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRSO) is an approach to optimization under uncertainty in which, instead of assuming that there is an underlying probability distribution that is known exactly, one hedges against a chosen set of distributions. In this paper, we consider sets of distributions that are within a chosen Wasserstein distance from a nominal distribution. We argue that such a choice of sets has two advantages: (1) The resulting distributions hedged against are more reasonable than those resulting from other popular choices of sets, such as {\Phi}-divergence ambiguity set. (2) The problem of determining the worst-case expectation has desirable tractability properties. 
We derive a dual reformulation of the corresponding DRSO problem and construct approximate worst-case distributions (or an exact worst-case distribution if it exists) explicitly via the first-order optimality conditions of the dual problem. Our contributions are five-fold. (i) We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a worst-case distribution, which is naturally related to the growth rate of the objective function. (ii) We show that the worst-case distributions resulting from an appropriate Wasserstein distance have a concise structure and a clear interpretation. (iii) Using this structure, we show that data-driven DRSO problems can be approximated to any accuracy by robust optimization problems, and thereby many DRSO problems become tractable by using tools from robust optimization. (iv) To the best of our knowledge, our proof of strong duality is the first constructive proof for DRSO problems, and we show that the constructive proof technique is also useful in other contexts. (v) Our strong duality result holds in a very general setting, and we show that it can be applied to infinite dimensional process control problems and worst-case value-at-risk analysis.

Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization with Wasserstein Distance

In this paper, we study data-driven chance constrained stochastic programs, or more specifically, stochastic programs with distributionally robust chance constraints (DCCs) in a data-driven setting to provide robust solutions for the classical chance constrained stochastic program facing ambiguous probability distributions of random parameters. We consider a family of density-based confidence sets based on a general $$\phi $$ź-divergence measure, and formulate DCC from the perspective of robust feasibility by allowing the ambiguous distribution to run adversely within its confidence set. We derive an equivalent reformulation for DCC and show that it is equivalent to a classical chance constraint with a perturbed risk level. We also show how to evaluate the perturbed risk level by using a bisection line search algorithm for general $$\phi $$ź-divergence measures. In several special cases, our results can be strengthened such that we can derive closed-form expressions for the perturbed risk levels. In addition, we show that the conservatism of DCC vanishes as the size of historical data goes to infinity. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the conservatism of DCC and the size of historical data, which can help indicate the value of data. Finally, we conduct extensive computational experiments to test the performance of the proposed DCC model and compare various $$\phi $$ź-divergence measures based on a capacitated lot-sizing problem with a quality-of-service requirement.

http://www.optimization-online.org/DB_FILE/2012/07/3525.pdf

Data-driven chance constrained stochastic program

Portfolio optimization problems involving value at risk VaR are often computationally intractable and require complete information about the return distribution of the portfolio constituents, which is rarely available in practice. These difficulties are compounded when the portfolio contains derivatives. We develop two tractable conservative approximations for the VaR of a derivative portfolio by evaluating the worst-case VaR over all return distributions of the derivative underliers with given first-and second-order moments. The derivative returns are modelled as convex piecewise linear or---by using a delta--gamma approximation---as possibly nonconvex quadratic functions of the returns of the derivative underliers. These models lead to new worst-case polyhedral VaR WPVaR and worst-case quadratic VaR WQVaR approximations, respectively. WPVaR serves as a VaR approximation for portfolios containing long positions in European options expiring at the end of the investment horizon, whereas WQVaR is suitable for portfolios containing long and/or short positions in European and/or exotic options expiring beyond the investment horizon. We prove that---unlike VaR that may discourage diversification---WPVaR and WQVaR are in fact coherent risk measures. We also reveal connections to robust portfolio optimization.

This paper was accepted by Dimitris Bertsimas, optimization.

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Worst-Case Value at Risk of Nonlinear Portfolios

We present a risk-averse multi-dimensional newsvendor model for a class of products whose demands are strongly correlated and subject to fashion trends that are not fully understood at the time when orders are placed. The demand distribution is known to be multimodal in the sense that there are spatially separated clusters of probability mass but otherwise lacks a complete description. We assume that the newsvendor hedges against distributional ambiguity by minimizing the worst-case risk of the order portfolio over all distributions that are compatible with the given modality information. We demonstrate that the resulting distributionally robust optimization problem is $$\mathrm{NP}$$NP-hard but admits an efficient numerical solution in quadratic decision rules. This approximation is conservative and computationally tractable. Moreover, it achieves a high level of accuracy in numerical tests. We further demonstrate that disregarding ambiguity or multimodality can lead to unstable solutions that perform poorly in stress test experiments.

http://www.optimization-online.org/DB_FILE/2012/10/3632.pdf

Distributionally robust multi-item newsvendor problems with multimodal demand distributions

Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees

The Omega Ratio is a recent performance measure. It captures both, the downside and upside potential of the constructed portfolio, while remaining consistent with utility maximization. In this paper, a new approach to compute the maximum Omega Ratio as a linear program is derived. While the Omega ratio is considered to be a non-convex function, we show an exact formulation in terms of a convex optimization problem, and transform it as a linear program. The convex reformulation for the Omega Ratio maximization is a direct analogue to mean-variance framework and the Sharpe Ratio maximization.

Steve Zymler

Papers

Distributionally robust joint chance constraints with second-order moment information

Worst-Case Value at Risk of Nonlinear Portfolios

Distributionally robust multi-item newsvendor problems with multimodal demand distributions

Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees

Optimizing the Omega ratio using linear programming