Food spoilage--interactions between food spoilage bacteria.

Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food-safety risk assessment models, are presented in this article. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods, and one graphical method, are identified. The selected methods are compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. Applications of these methods are illustrated with examples from various fields. No one method is clearly best for food-safety risk models. In general, use of two or more methods, preferably with dissimilar theoretical foundations, may be needed to increase confidence in the ranking of key inputs.

Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods

Food safety criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) foods have been applied from 2006 onwards (Commission Regulation (EC) 2073/2005). Still, human invasive listeriosis was reported to increase over the period 2009-2013 in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). Time series analysis for the 2008-2015 period in the EU/EEA indicated an increasing trend of the monthly notified incidence rate of confirmed human invasive listeriosis of the over 75 age groups and female age group between 25 and 44 years old (probably related to pregnancies). A conceptual model was used to identify factors in the food chain as potential drivers for L. monocytogenes contamination of RTE foods and listeriosis. Factors were related to the host (i. population size of the elderly and/or susceptible people; ii. underlying condition rate), the food (iii. L. monocytogenes prevalence in RTE food at retail; iv. L. monocytogenes concentration in RTE food at retail; v. storage conditions after retail; vi. consumption), the national surveillance systems (vii. improved surveillance), and/or the bacterium (viii. virulence). Factors considered likely to be responsible for the increasing trend in cases are the increased population size of the elderly and susceptible population except for the 25-44 female age group. For the increased incidence rates and cases, the likely factor is the increased proportion of susceptible persons in the age groups over 45 years old for both genders. Quantitative modelling suggests that more than 90% of invasive listeriosis is caused by ingestion of RTE food containing > 2,000 colony forming units (CFU)/g, and that one-third of cases are due to growth in the consumer phase. Awareness should be increased among stakeholders, especially in relation to susceptible risk groups. Innovative methodologies including whole genome sequencing (WGS) for strain identification and monitoring of trends are recommended.

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready-to-eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU.

Predictive microbiology: towards the interface and beyond.

Risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat-foods

Predictive modelling of the growth and survival of Listeria in fishery products

Models describing the limits of growth of pathogens under multiple constraints will aid management of the safety of foods which are sporadically contaminated with pathogens and for which subsequent growth of the pathogen would significantly increase the risk of food-borne illness. We modeled the effects of temperature, water activity, pH, and lactic acid levels on the growth of two strains of Listeria monocytogenes in tryptone soya yeast extract broth. The results could be divided unambiguously into “growth is possible” or “growth is not possible” classes. We observed minor differences in growth characteristics of the two L. monocytogenes strains. The data follow a binomial probability distribution and may be modeled using logistic regression. The model used is derived from a growth rate model in a manner similar to that described in a previously published work (K. A. Presser, T. Ross, and D. A. Ratkowsky, Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 64:1773‐1779, 1998). We used “nonlinear logistic regression” to estimate the model parameters and developed a relatively simple model that describes our experimental data well. The fitted equations also described well the growth limits of all strains of L. monocytogenes reported in the literature, except at temperatures beyond the limits of the experimental data used to develop the model (3 to 35°C). The models developed will improve the rigor of microbial food safety risk assessment and provide quantitative data in a concise form for the development of safer food products and processes. Predictive microbiology combines mathematical modeling with experimental data on combinations of factors that influence the growth of food spoilage and/or food-borne pathogenic microorganisms. The models developed are intended to predict the fate of microorganisms in foods. Since the experimental data are usually derived from studies using laboratory media, the models must be validated with data collected under conditions under which food products are customarily stored. Predictive microbiology models can be divided into kinetic models and probability models. With the former type, one calculates the microbiological life of food products, i.e., the period of time during which the number of microorganisms in the food is less than a specified value. With the latter type, one determines whether a microorganism can grow and identifies storage conditions with a low or nil probability of growth. Kinetic and probability models may be closely related, because the probability of detectable growth within a specified time period depends on germination, lag, and generation times, i.e., on kinetic parameters. In some cases, a probability model may be derived from a kinetic model by some simple mathematical transformations. For example, in references 33, 35 and 41, a kinetic model was transformed into a probability model by taking the natural logarithm of both sides of the original equation and then replacing one side with the “logit” of a probability, i.e., ln [P/(1 2 P)], where P is the probability that growth occurs. Low levels of Listeria monocytogenes, i.e.,

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Ratkowsky/publication/12270665_Growth_Limits_of_Listeria_monocytogenesas_a_Function_of_Temperature_pH_NaCl_and_Lactic_Acid/links/02e7e52b356292bc1a000000.pdf

Suwunna Tienungoon

Papers

Predictive modelling of the growth and survival of Listeria in fishery products

Growth limits of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of temperature, pH, NaCl, and lactic acid.

Quantifying the hurdle concept by modelling the bacterial growth/no growth interface.