抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1（PfPMP1）与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用，在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员，通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

疟原虫var基因转换速率变化导致抗原变异[英]／Paul H, Robert P, Christodoulou Z, et al//Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Statistics for Spatial Data.

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability-31xc1cf4d3.pdf

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional
Integrated Science and Assessment Program for California, United States

/pdf/climate-change-growth-and-california-wildfire-4w7mx0kecx.pdf

Climate Change, Growth, and California Wildfire

Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (usedas a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaledmeteorology was used to drive a hydrology model over California. The historic record 5 was divided into an “observed” period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for down-scaling, and a “projected” period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscalingmethods included a bias-correction/spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which reliessolelyonmonthlylargescalemeteorologyandresamplesthehistoricalrecordtoobtaindaily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale 10 anomalies, and a hybrid method (BCCA) using a quantile-mapping bias correction onthe large-scale data prior to the CA approach. At 11 sites we compared three simulateddaily ﬂow statistics: streamﬂow timing, 3-day peak ﬂow, and 7-day low ﬂow. While alldownscaling methods produced reasonable streamﬂow statistics at most locations, theBCCA method consistently outperformed the other methods, capturing the daily large-

Assessing climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California: the utility of daily large-scale climate data

xi 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 Flood Mechanisms and Warming in the Sierra Nevada 3 2.1. Historical Floods 3 2.2. Rainfall-Runoff Contributing Areas 8 2.3. Rain on Snow 11 2.4. Antecedent Soil Moisture 13 2.5. Synchronous Springtime Snowmelt 14 3.0 Projections of Future Atmospheric-River Storms 14 4.0 Hydrologic Simulation Analysis of Sierra Nevadan Floods 29 4.1. Method 29 4.2. Simulations of Changing Flood Risks 31 4.2.1. Northern Sierra Nevada 31 4.2.2. Southern Sierra Nevada 38 4.3. Summary 41 5.0 Tides, Storm Surges, and Floods 42 6.0 Conclusions 46 7.0 References 48 8.0 Glossary 53

Projections of Potential Flood Regime Changes in California

This study assesses potential changes in runoff of California’s eight major Central Valley water supply watersheds in the 21st century. The study employs the latest operative climate projections from 10 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to drive a hydrologic model (VIC) in generating runoff projections through 2099. Changes in peak runoff, peak timing, seasonal (major water supply season April–July) runoff, and annual runoff during two future periods, mid-century and late-century, relative to a historical baseline period are examined. Trends in seasonal and annual runoff projections are also investigated. The results indicate that watershed characteristics impact runoff responses to climate change. Specifically, for rain-dominated watersheds, runoff is generally projected to peak earlier with higher peak volumes on average. For snow-dominated watersheds, however, runoff is largely projected to peak within the same month as historical runoff has, with little changes in peak volume during mid-century but pronounced decreases during late-century under the higher emission scenario. The study also identifies changes that are common to all study watersheds. Specifically, the temporal distribution of annual runoff is projected to change in terms of shifting more volume to the wet season, though there is no significant changing trend in the total annual runoff. Additionally, the snowmelt portion of the total annual runoff (represented by April–July runoff divided by total annual runoff) is projected to decline consistently under both emission scenarios, indicative of a shrinking snowpack across the study watersheds. Collectively, these changes imply higher flood risk and lower water supply reliability in the future that are expected to pose stress to California’s water system. Those findings can inform water management adaptation practices (e.g., watershed restoration, re-operation of the current water system, investing in additional water storage) to cope with the stress.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/8/1651/pdf

Tapash Das

Papers

Climate Change, Growth, and California Wildfire

Assessing climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California: the utility of daily large-scale climate data

Projections of Potential Flood Regime Changes in California

Potential Changes in Runoff of California’s Major Water Supply Watersheds in the 21st Century

Structure and Origins of Trends in Hydrological Measures over the western United States