Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.

/pdf/a-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-tynyc6i2kf.pdf

A safe operating space for humanity

Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

/pdf/planetary-boundaries-exploring-the-safe-operating-space-for-ir5ysgjg96.pdf

Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

Estuarine and coastal transformation is as old as civilization yet has dramatically accelerated over the past 150 to 300 years. Reconstructed time lines, causes, and consequences of change in 12 once diverse and productive estuaries and coastal seas worldwide show similar patterns: Human impacts have depleted >90% of formerly important species, destroyed >65% of seagrass and wetland habitat, degraded water quality, and accelerated species invasions. Twentieth-century conservation efforts achieved partial recovery of upper trophic levels but have so far failed to restore former ecosystem structure and function. Our results provide detailed historical baselines and quantitative targets for ecosystem-based management and marine conservation.

/pdf/depletion-degradation-and-recovery-potential-of-estuaries-1hinljyave.pdf

Depletion, Degradation, and Recovery Potential of Estuaries and Coastal Seas

A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) con- ceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton- derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nu- trient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochem- istry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5 questions that will guide coastal science in the early 21st century: (1) How do system-specific attributes constrain or amplify the responses of coastal ecosystems to nutrient enrichment? (2) How does nutrient enrichment interact with other stressors (toxic contaminants, fishing harvest, aquaculture, nonindigenous species, habitat loss, climate change, hydro- logic manipulations) to change coastal ecosystems? (3) How are responses to multiple stressors linked? (4) How does human-induced change in the coastal zone impact the Earth system as habitat for humanity and other species? (5) How can a deeper scientific understanding of the coastal eutrophication problem be applied to develop tools for building strategies at ecosystem restoration or rehabilitation?

https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps/210/m210p223.pdf

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

The rise of harmful cyanobacteria blooms: The potential roles of eutrophication and climate change

Massive summer blooms of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria have been documented in the Baltic Sea since the 19th century, but are reported to have increased in frequency, biomass, and duration in recen 

https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.4319/lo.2000.45.3.0716

Cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea: Natural or human-induced?

Past occurrences of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and the role of climate variability, environmental change and human impact

During the Eemian interglacial 130–115 ka BP, the hydrology of the Baltic Sea was significantly different from the Holocene. A pathway between the Baltic basin and the Barents Sea through Karelia existed during the first ca. 2.5 ka of the interglacial. Both sea surface temperature and salinity of the SW Eemian Baltic Sea were much higher, ca. 6°C and 15‰, respectively, than at present. A first early Weichselian Scandinavian ice advance is recorded in NW Finland during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 and the first Baltic ice lobe advance into SE Denmark is dated to 55–50 ka BP. From the last glacial maximum that was reached ca. 22 ka BP, the ice sheet retreated northward with a few still-stands and readvances; however, by ca. 10 ka BP the entire basin was deglaciated. Weak inflows of saline water were registered in the southern and central Baltic Sea ca. 9.8 ka BP with full brackish marine conditions reached at ca. 8 ka BP and the maximum Holocene salinity was recorded between 6 and 4 ka BP. The present Baltic Sea is characterized by a marked halocline preventing the vertical water exchange resulting in hypoxic bottom conditions in the deeper part of the basin.

The Development of the Baltic Sea Basin During the Last 130 ka

A study of changes in siliceous microfossil assemblages and chemical analyses in a well-dated offshore sediment core from the Bornholm Basin, southwestern Baltic Sea, is carried out with the object ...

The Holocene history of the southwestern Baltic Sea as reflected in a sediment core from the Bornholm Basin

Sediment cores from the Gotland Basin were studied for their siliceous microfossil assemblages and organic carbon content to compare recent environmental changes in the Baltic Sea with its natural 

Thomas Andrén

Papers

Cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea: Natural or human-induced?

Past occurrences of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and the role of climate variability, environmental change and human impact

The Development of the Baltic Sea Basin During the Last 130 ka

The Holocene history of the southwestern Baltic Sea as reflected in a sediment core from the Bornholm Basin

Holocene history of the Baltic Sea as a background for assessing records of human impact in the sediments of the Gotland Basin