Reducing risks to food security from climate change

Global high-resolution crop-specific estimates of greenhouse gas emissions intensity (in 2000) reveal that certain cropping practices contribute disproportionately to emissions, making them suitable targets for climate mitigation policies. Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from croplands as agricultural demand grows is a critical component of climate change mitigation1,2,3. Emissions intensity metrics—including carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per kilocalorie produced (‘production intensity’)—can highlight regions, management practices, and crops as potential foci for mitigation4,5,6,7. Yet the spatial and crop-wise distribution of emissions intensity has been uncertain. Here, we develop global crop-specific circa 2000 estimates of GHG emissions and GHG intensity in high spatial detail, reporting the effects of rice paddy management, peatland draining, and nitrogen (N) fertilizer on CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions. Global mean production intensity is 0.16 Mg CO2e M kcal−1, yet certain cropping practices contribute disproportionately to emissions. Peatland drainage (3.7 Mg CO2e M kcal−1)—concentrated in Europe and Indonesia—accounts for 32% of these cropland emissions despite peatlands producing just 1.1% of total crop kilocalories. Methane emissions from rice (0.58 Mg CO2e M kcal-1), a crucial food staple supplying 15% of total crop kilocalories, contribute 48% of cropland emissions, with outsized production intensity in Vietnam. In contrast, N2O emissions from N fertilizer application (0.033 Mg CO2e M kcal−1) generate only 20% of cropland emissions. We find that current total GHG emissions are largely unrelated to production intensity across crops and countries. Climate mitigation policies should therefore be directed to locations where crops have both high emissions and high intensities.

Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands

How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity

Global warming and associated precipitation changes will negatively impact on many agricultural ecosystems. Major food production areas are expected to experience reduced water availability and increased frequency of drought over the coming decades. In affected areas, this is expected to reduce the production of important food crops including wheat, rice, and maize. The development of crop varieties able to sustain or improve yields with less water input is, therefore, a priority for crop research. Almost all water used for plant growth is lost to the atmosphere by transpiration through stomatal pores on the leaf epidermis. By altering stomatal pore apertures, plants are able to optimize their CO2 uptake for photosynthesis while minimizing water loss. Over longer periods, stomatal development may also be adjusted, with stomatal size and density being adapted to suit the prevailing conditions. Several approaches to improve drought tolerance and water-use efficiency through the modification of stomatal traits have been tested in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. However, there is surprisingly little known about the stomata of crop species. Here, we review the current understanding of how stomatal number and morphology are involved in regulating water-use efficiency. Moreover, we discuss the potential and limitations of manipulating stomatal development to increase drought tolerance and to reduce water loss in crops as the climate changes.

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Impact of Stomatal Density and Morphology on Water-Use Efficiency in a Changing World.

Climate change is a global threat to the food and nutritional security of the world. As greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere are increasing, the temperature is also rising due to the greenhouse effect. The average global temperature is increasing continuously and is predicted to rise by 2 °C until 2100, which would cause substantial economic losses at the global level. The concentration of CO2, which accounts for a major proportion of greenhouse gases, is increasing at an alarming rate, and has led to higher growth and plant productivity due to increased photosynthesis, but increased temperature offsets this effect as it leads to increased crop respiration rate and evapotranspiration, higher pest infestation, a shift in weed flora, and reduced crop duration. Climate change also affects the microbial population and their enzymatic activities in soil. This paper reviews the information collected through the literature regarding the issue of climate change, its possible causes, its projection in the near future, its impact on the agriculture sector as an influence on physiological and metabolic activities of plants, and its potential and reported implications for growth and plant productivity, pest infestation, and mitigation strategies and their economic impact.

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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach to the development of agricultural systems intended to help support food security under climate change. This Perspective outlines a set of CSA actions needed from public, private and civil society stakeholders: building evidence; increasing local institutional effectiveness; fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and linking climate and agricultural financing.

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Thomas Remington

Papers

Climate-smart agriculture for food security