Plastics have outgrown most man-made materials and have long been under environmental scrutiny. However, robust global information, particularly about their end-of-life fate, is lacking. By identifying and synthesizing dispersed data on production, use, and end-of-life management of polymer resins, synthetic fibers, and additives, we present the first global analysis of all mass-produced plastics ever manufactured. We estimate that 8300 million metric tons (Mt) as of virgin plastics have been produced to date. As of 2015, approximately 6300 Mt of plastic waste had been generated, around 9% of which had been recycled, 12% was incinerated, and 79% was accumulated in landfills or the natural environment. If current production and waste management trends continue, roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste will be in landfills or in the natural environment by 2050.

Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

In 1997, the global value of ecosystem services was estimated to average $33 trillion/yr in 1995 $US ($46 trillion/yr in 2007 $US). In this paper, we provide an updated estimate based on updated unit ecosystem service values and land use change estimates between 1997 and 2011. We also address some of the critiques of the 1997 paper. Using the same methods as in the 1997 paper but with updated data, the estimate for the total global ecosystem services in 2011 is $125 trillion/yr (assuming updated unit values and changes to biome areas) and $145 trillion/yr (assuming only unit values changed), both in 2007 $US. From this we estimated the loss of eco-services from 1997 to 2011 due to land use change at $4.3–20.2 trillion/yr, depending on which unit values are used. Global estimates expressed in monetary accounting units, such as this, are useful to highlight the magnitude of eco-services, but have no specific decision-making context. However, the underlying data and models can be applied at multiple scales to assess changes resulting from various scenarios and policies. We emphasize that valuation of eco-services (in whatever units) is not the same as commodification or privatization. Many eco-services are best considered public goods or common pool resources, so conventional markets are often not the best institutional frameworks to manage them. However, these services must be (and are being) valued, and we need new, common asset institutions to better take these values into account.

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Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

Background: Surgical thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) management involves decompression of the neurovascular structures by releasing the anterior and/or middle scalene muscles, resection of the first...

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1558944718798834

Thirty-Day Outcomes Following Surgical Decompression of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

BACKGROUND Increasing rates of obesity have led to growing demand for bariatric surgery. This has implications for wait times, particularly in publicly funded programs. This study examined the impact of patient and operational factors on wait times in a multidisciplinary bariatric surgery program. METHODS A retrospective study was conducted involving patients who were referred to a tertiary care centre (University Health Network, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto) for bariatric surgery between June 2008 and July 2011. Patient characteristics, dates of clinical assessments and records describing operational changes were collected. Univariable analysis and multivariable log-linear and parametric time-to-event regressions were performed to determine whether patient and operational covariates were associated with the wait time for bariatric surgery (i.e., length of preoperative evaluation). RESULTS Of the 1664 patients included in the analysis, 724 underwent surgery with a mean wait time of 440 (standard deviation 198) days and a median wait time of 445 (interquartile range 298-533) days. Wait times ranged from 3 months to 4 years. Univariable and multivariable analyses showed that patients with active substance use (β = 0.3482, p = 0.02) and individuals who entered the program in more recent operational periods (β = 0.2028, p < 0.001) had longer wait times. Additionally, the median time-to-surgery increased over 3 discrete operational periods (characterized by specific program changes related to scheduling and staffing levels, and varying referral rates and defined surgical targets; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION Some patients could be identified at referral as being at risk for longer wait times. We also found that previous operational decisions significantly increased the wait time in the program since its inception. Therefore, careful consideration must be devoted to process-level decision-making for multistage bariatric surgical programs, because managerial and procedural changes can affect timely access to treatment.

Patient and operational factors affecting wait times in a bariatric surgery program in Toronto: a retrospective cohort study

As a key element in its climate change strategy, the UK government launched a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in April 2002. The UK ETS is the first-ever national, industry-wide carbon trading scheme in the world and will eventually form part of the global carbon market which is expected to be established under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper assesses the effectiveness of the scheme both in facilitating emission reductions and also as driver towards moving from a fossil-fuel-based economy towards a low-carbon economy. By looking at early developments in the UK ETS and examining the emission profiles of FTSE 100 companies, the paper reveals some serious weaknesses and highlights that the environmental credibility of the market is hampered by low standards of emissions monitoring and reporting. The authors argue that a fundamental review of the UK scheme is required, to improve its environmental credibility and to bring it in line with the planned EU-wide scheme.

Early experiences with emissions trading in the UK

What Is the Innovation? We developed a novel cost-performance feedback tool to provide surgeons with a continuous assessment of operating room expenditures. This “Surgeon Cost Report Card” is an email message meant to increase surgeons’ awareness of costs and encourage changes in behavior (Figure). A smartphone-compatible design maximizes usability. Cost data are aggregated and subdivided by item categories. Individual and collective averages are presented, promoting comparison with derived group standards by time period and procedure type. Intuitive color-coding is used to direct attention. It also reinforces the goal of cost reduction, taking advantage of the competitive culture intrinsic to surgical practice. Positive feedback is given by naming the best performer in the group, further encouraging healthy peer-to-peer competition. Privacy is protected by customizing the report card for individual surgeons. The report interval can be freely adjusted based on case volume to balance timely feedback with adequate sample size. Automation of the data processing required to generate the report card enables rapid deployment with minimal administrative requirements.

Tim Jackson

Papers

Thirty-Day Outcomes Following Surgical Decompression of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

Patient and operational factors affecting wait times in a bariatric surgery program in Toronto: a retrospective cohort study

Early experiences with emissions trading in the UK

The Surgeon Cost Report Card: A Novel Cost-Performance Feedback Tool.

JI/CDM crediting under the Kyoto Protocol: does ‘interim period banking’ help or hinder GHG emissions reduction?