Plastics have outgrown most man-made materials and have long been under environmental scrutiny. However, robust global information, particularly about their end-of-life fate, is lacking. By identifying and synthesizing dispersed data on production, use, and end-of-life management of polymer resins, synthetic fibers, and additives, we present the first global analysis of all mass-produced plastics ever manufactured. We estimate that 8300 million metric tons (Mt) as of virgin plastics have been produced to date. As of 2015, approximately 6300 Mt of plastic waste had been generated, around 9% of which had been recycled, 12% was incinerated, and 79% was accumulated in landfills or the natural environment. If current production and waste management trends continue, roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste will be in landfills or in the natural environment by 2050.

Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

In 1997, the global value of ecosystem services was estimated to average $33 trillion/yr in 1995 $US ($46 trillion/yr in 2007 $US). In this paper, we provide an updated estimate based on updated unit ecosystem service values and land use change estimates between 1997 and 2011. We also address some of the critiques of the 1997 paper. Using the same methods as in the 1997 paper but with updated data, the estimate for the total global ecosystem services in 2011 is $125 trillion/yr (assuming updated unit values and changes to biome areas) and $145 trillion/yr (assuming only unit values changed), both in 2007 $US. From this we estimated the loss of eco-services from 1997 to 2011 due to land use change at $4.3–20.2 trillion/yr, depending on which unit values are used. Global estimates expressed in monetary accounting units, such as this, are useful to highlight the magnitude of eco-services, but have no specific decision-making context. However, the underlying data and models can be applied at multiple scales to assess changes resulting from various scenarios and policies. We emphasize that valuation of eco-services (in whatever units) is not the same as commodification or privatization. Many eco-services are best considered public goods or common pool resources, so conventional markets are often not the best institutional frameworks to manage them. However, these services must be (and are being) valued, and we need new, common asset institutions to better take these values into account.

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Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

PurposeThere remains a significant paucity in data on the epidemiology and management of neovascular glaucoma (NVG). We aimed to describe NVG incidence rates and establish variance in the medical and surgical management of NVG over a 6‐year period, in the context of pathway modifications implemented in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic.MethodsPatients diagnosed with and treated for NVG at our centre between January 2015 and April 2021 were identified. Data on patient demographics, co‐morbidities, aetiology and intervention were extracted. Crude incidence rates were calculated. Variation in the form of intervention and severity of disease practice was studied. Multivariate regression modelling was used to look for associations with disease potentially influencing practice.ResultsFive‐hundred seventy seven patients (M:F 327:250) were included with mean age (SD) 70.26 (12.62), baseline cup‐to‐disc ratio (CDR) 0.75 (0.23), and intraocular pressure (IOP) 28.08 mmHg (14.01). Majority of patients were diabetic (63.9% n = 368). Retinal vein occlusion was identified in 35.0% (n = 203). NVG incidence in the 5 years pre‐COVID were 2.5/100 000 (2015), 4.9/100 000 (2016), 7.8/100 000 (2017), 11.5/100 000 (2018) and 15.8/100 000 (2019) (p < 0.0001), and during COVID 11.8/100 000 (2020). Between 2018–2019 and 2020–21, there appeared to be an increasing trend towards implementing anti‐VEGF therapy and alternate forms of glaucoma surgery. Diabetes was associated with higher rates of surgical intervention (OR = 3.69, 95% CI 1.40–9.67, p = 0.008). Conversely, patients aged 50–74 were less likely to undergo surgery (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.21–0.99, p = 0.048).ConclusionIncidence rates of NVG appear to have increased, with a larger proportion of patients requiring surgical intervention. Discrepancies in these rates suggest a cohort of patients lost during the pandemic;these delayed presentations are likely due to patient reluctance and pandemic workforce redeployment.

Evaluating variance in the medical and surgical management of neovascular glaucoma

Shifting sands? Exploring rebound and the backfire in a changing economy

Consumerism as Theodicy - an explanation of religions and secular meaning functions

Estimating rebound effects from technical energy efficiency improvements by UK households

Sponsored by the UK's Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as part of the Research Councils' Energy Programme, RESOLVE aims to unravel the complex links between lifestyles, values and the environment. In particular, the group will provide robust, evidence-based advice to policy-makers in the UK and elsewhere who are seeking to understand and to influence the behaviours and practices of 'energy consumers'. The working papers in this series reflect the outputs, findings and recommendations emerging from a truly inter-disciplinary research programme arranged around six thematic research strands: Carbon Footprinting: developing the tools to find out which bits of people's lifestyles and practices generate how much energy consumption (and carbon emissions). Psychology of Energy Behaviours: concentrating on the social psychological influences on energy-related behaviours, including the role of identity, and testing interventions aimed at change. Sociology of Lifestyles: focusing on the sociological aspects of lifestyles and the possibilities of lifestyle change, exploring the role of values and the creation and maintenance of meaning. Household change over time: working with individual households to understand how they respond to the demands of climate change and negotiate new, low-carbon lifestyles and practices. Lifestyle Scenarios: exploring the potential for reducing the energy consumption (and carbon emissions) associated with a variety of lifestyle scenarios over the next two to three decades. Energy/Carbon Governance: reviewing the implications of a low carbon society for governance, and investigating, in particular, the role of community in stimulating long-term lifestyle change. Abstract This paper describes scenarios to 2030 for UK household expenditure and associated (direct and indirect) GHG emissions for 16 expenditure categories. Using assumptions for real household disposable income, prices, exogenous non-economic factors (ExNEF), average UK temperatures and GHG intensities for each of the 16 expenditure categories, three future scenarios are constructed. In each case, real expenditure for almost all categories of UK expenditure continues to grow up to 2030; the exceptions being 'alcoholic beverages and tobacco' and 'other fuels' (and 'gas' and 'electricity' in 'low' scenario). Furthermore, this leads to an increase in GHG emissions for most of the categories in the 'reference' and 'high' scenarios other than 'food and non-alcoholic beverages', 'alcoholic beverages and tobacco', 'electricity', 'other fuels' and 'recreation and culture'. The GHGs emitted from 'direct energy' use by households are responsible for about 30% of future total emissions with nearly 70% of future emissions attributable to 'indirect energy'. UK policy makers therefore need to consider a …

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Tim Jackson

Papers

Evaluating variance in the medical and surgical management of neovascular glaucoma

Shifting sands? Exploring rebound and the backfire in a changing economy

Consumerism as Theodicy - an explanation of religions and secular meaning functions

Estimating rebound effects from technical energy efficiency improvements by UK households

Forecasting UK household expenditure and associated GHG emissions: outlook to 2030