Plastics have outgrown most man-made materials and have long been under environmental scrutiny. However, robust global information, particularly about their end-of-life fate, is lacking. By identifying and synthesizing dispersed data on production, use, and end-of-life management of polymer resins, synthetic fibers, and additives, we present the first global analysis of all mass-produced plastics ever manufactured. We estimate that 8300 million metric tons (Mt) as of virgin plastics have been produced to date. As of 2015, approximately 6300 Mt of plastic waste had been generated, around 9% of which had been recycled, 12% was incinerated, and 79% was accumulated in landfills or the natural environment. If current production and waste management trends continue, roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste will be in landfills or in the natural environment by 2050.

Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

In 1997, the global value of ecosystem services was estimated to average $33 trillion/yr in 1995 $US ($46 trillion/yr in 2007 $US). In this paper, we provide an updated estimate based on updated unit ecosystem service values and land use change estimates between 1997 and 2011. We also address some of the critiques of the 1997 paper. Using the same methods as in the 1997 paper but with updated data, the estimate for the total global ecosystem services in 2011 is $125 trillion/yr (assuming updated unit values and changes to biome areas) and $145 trillion/yr (assuming only unit values changed), both in 2007 $US. From this we estimated the loss of eco-services from 1997 to 2011 due to land use change at $4.3–20.2 trillion/yr, depending on which unit values are used. Global estimates expressed in monetary accounting units, such as this, are useful to highlight the magnitude of eco-services, but have no specific decision-making context. However, the underlying data and models can be applied at multiple scales to assess changes resulting from various scenarios and policies. We emphasize that valuation of eco-services (in whatever units) is not the same as commodification or privatization. Many eco-services are best considered public goods or common pool resources, so conventional markets are often not the best institutional frameworks to manage them. However, these services must be (and are being) valued, and we need new, common asset institutions to better take these values into account.

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Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on bariatric patients' self-management post-surgery.

Background Routine preoperative mechanical bowel preparation (MBP) for left-sided colorectal resections remains controversial. This study aims to evaluate the association between MBP and 30-day anastomotic leaks. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2011 to 2012. Multiple imputation was used for missing data, and a multivariable logistic regression was performed to adjust for clinically relevant variables. A propensity score–adjusted model was performed as a sensitivity analysis. Results A total of 2,581 patients (57%) received preoperative MBP, whereas 1,935 (43%) did not. The 30-day anastomotic leak rate with and without preoperative MBP was 3.1% and 5.1%, respectively. After covariate adjustment, MBP omission was significantly associated with a 40% increased odds of 30-day anastomotic leaks (odds ratio 1.41, P = .04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.93). Conclusions MBP omission was associated with a higher rate of 30-day anastomotic leaks. A large, well-designed, randomized controlled trial is needed to further evaluate this relationship.

The effect of mechanical bowel preparation on anastomotic leaks in elective left-sided colorectal resections.

Worker wellbeing and productivity in advanced economies: Re-examining the link

This paper utilizes Critical Slowing Down (CSD; instability) indicators developed by statistical physics to analyse economic growth rate variability and secular stagnation in historical GDP data Understanding these phenomena is vital, particularly in advanced economies faced with declining growth rates Two novel indicators - the autocorrelation (AR1) and the variance – are found particularly useful in providing insight into inter-decadal GDP variability over this period These indicators are first applied to the Maddison-Project historical dataset, which includes almost a century of data for some 80 countries and almost two centuries of data for 9 countries They are additionally applied to ~50 years of recent annual data for around 130 countries from the World Bank dataset as well as ~60 years of recent quarterly data for around 20 countries from the OECD dataset Analysis reveals inter-decadal variability in growth cycles (the recession cycle), highlighting periods of large slow growth cycles and periods of small fast growth cycles The most commonly occurring pattern is characterised by an increase in CSD from the 1900s to 1940s, a decline in CSD between the 1930s and the 1970s, then a further increase in CSD from the 1960s to 2010 This pattern is significant in ~70% of the advanced economies CSD indicators may then provide invaluable insights into specific aspects of inter-decadal GDP variability, such as on the nature of the business cycle, secular stagnation and the implicit “restoring forces” of the economy

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Tim Jackson

Papers

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on bariatric patients' self-management post-surgery.

The effect of mechanical bowel preparation on anastomotic leaks in elective left-sided colorectal resections.

Worker wellbeing and productivity in advanced economies: Re-examining the link

Using critical slowing down indicators to understand economic growth rate variability and secular stagnation.

Materialism and Environmental Concern. Examining Values and Lifestyle Choices among Participants of the 21st Century Living Project