2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

4th Generation District Heating (4GDH) Integrating smart thermal grids into future sustainable energy systems

Thermal comfort and building energy consumption implications - A review

Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions

Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system

Heat distribution and the future competitiveness of district heating

Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions

Power-to-heat solutions like heat pumps and electric boilers are foreseen to be possible future tools to stabilise international power markets with high proportions of variable power supply. Temporary low cost electricity can be used for heat generation at times with high availability of wind and solar power through substitution of ordinary heat supply, hence contributing to increased energy system sustainability. Power-to-heat installations in district heating systems are competitive due to low specific investment and installation costs for large electric boilers, heat pumps, and heat storages. Several large-scale heat pumps were installed in Swedish district heating systems during the 1980s, since a national electricity surplus from new nuclear power existed for some years. The aim of this paper is to summarise the accumulated operation experiences from these large Swedish heat pumps to support and facilitate planning of future power-to-heat solutions with heat pumps in district heating systems. Gained experiences consider; installed capacities, capacity utilisation, heat sources used, refrigerant replacements, refrigerant leakages, and wear of mechanical components. The major conclusion is that many of the large thirty-year-old heat pumps are still in operation, but with reduced capacity utilisation due to internal competition from waste and biomass cogeneration plants in the district heating systems.

Urban Persson

Papers

Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system

Heat distribution and the future competitiveness of district heating

Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions

Large heat pumps in Swedish district heating systems

Mapping of potential heat sources for heat pumps for district heating in Denmark