Human alteration of Earth is substantial and growing. Between one-third and one-half of the land surface has been transformed by human action; the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by nearly 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; more atmospheric nitrogen is fixed by humanity than by all natural terrestrial sources combined; more than half of all accessible surface fresh water is put to use by humanity; and about one-quarter of the bird species on Earth have been driven to extinction. By these and other standards, it is clear that we live on a human-dominated planet.

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Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/78793/1/Progress%20in%20chemical-looping%20combustion%20and%20ref....2012.pdf

Progress in chemical-looping combustion and reforming technologies

[1] We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the “efficacy” of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH4 has efficacy ∼110%, which increases to ∼145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of ∼0.8 W/m2 for the period 1750–2000 and making CH4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO2. Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy ∼58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy ∼78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880–2000. Responses to localized forcings, such as land use change and heavy regional concentrations of BC aerosols, include more specific regional characteristics. We suggest that anthropogenic tropospheric O3 and the BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic. As a complement to a priori forcings, such as Fi, Fa, and Fs, we tabulate the a posteriori effective forcing, Fe, which is the product of the forcing and its efficacy. Fe requires calculation of the climate response and introduces greater model dependence, but once it is calculated for a given amount of a forcing agent it provides a good prediction of the response to other forcing amounts.

Efficacy of climate forcings

[1] Wetlands represent the largest component of the terrestrial biological carbon pool and thus play an important role in global carbon cycles. Most global carbon budgets, however, have focused on dry land ecosystems that extend over large areas and have not accounted for the many small, scattered carbon-storing ecosystems such as tidal saline wetlands. We compiled data for 154 sites in mangroves and salt marshes from the western and eastern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, as well as the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Ocean, and Gulf of Mexico. The set of sites spans a latitudinal range from 22.4°S in the Indian Ocean to 55.5°N in the northeastern Atlantic. The average soil carbon density of mangrove swamps (0.055 ± 0.004 g cm−3) is significantly higher than the salt marsh average (0.039 ± 0.003 g cm−3). Soil carbon density in mangrove swamps and Spartina patens marshes declines with increasing average annual temperature, probably due to increased decay rates at higher temperatures. In contrast, carbon sequestration rates were not significantly different between mangrove swamps and salt marshes. Variability in sediment accumulation rates within marshes is a major control of carbon sequestration rates masking any relationship with climatic parameters. Globally, these combined wetlands store at least 44.6 Tg C yr−1 and probably more, as detailed areal inventories are not available for salt marshes in China and South America. Much attention has been given to the role of freshwater wetlands, particularly northern peatlands, as carbon sinks. In contrast to peatlands, salt marshes and mangroves release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases and store more carbon per unit area.

/pdf/global-carbon-sequestration-in-tidal-saline-wetland-soils-4t6ey6aryx.pdf

Global carbon sequestration in tidal, saline wetland soils

An update of the scientific discussions presented in Chapter 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is presented. The update discusses the atmospheric radiative and chemical species of significance for climate change. There are two major objectives of the present update. The first is an extension of the discussion on the Global Warming Potentials (GWP's), including a reevaluation in view of the updates in the lifetimes of the radiatively active species. The second important objective is to underscore major developments in the radiative forcing of climate due to the observed stratospheric ozone losses occurring between 1979 and 1990.

/pdf/radiative-forcing-of-climate-3a9kafrwjk.pdf

V. Ramanswamy

Papers

Radiative forcing of climate