The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere: An Inquiry into a Category of Bourgeois Society

We present a minimal spiking network that can polychronize, that is, exhibit reproducible time-locked but not synchronous firing patterns with millisecond precision, as in synfire braids. The network consists of cortical spiking neurons with axonal conduction delays and spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP); a ready-to-use MATLAB code is included. It exhibits sleeplike oscillations, gamma (40 Hz) rhythms, conversion of firing rates to spike timings, and other interesting regimes. Due to the interplay between the delays and STDP, the spiking neurons spontaneously self-organize into groups and generate patterns of stereotypical polychronous activity. To our surprise, the number of coexisting polychronous groups far exceeds the number of neurons in the network, resulting in an unprecedented memory capacity of the system. We speculate on the significance of polychrony to the theory of neuronal group selection (TNGS, neural Darwinism), cognitive neural computations, binding and gamma rhythm, mechanisms of attention, and consciousness as "attention to memories."

/pdf/polychronization-computation-with-spikes-5d651j5d00.pdf

Polychronization: Computation with Spikes

We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user’s access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the long-term dynamics of individual submissions from initial data. In the case of Digg, measuring access to given stories during the first two hours allows us to forecast their popularity 30 days ahead with remarkable accuracy, while downloads of Youtube videos need to be followed for 10 days to attain the same performance. The differing time scales of the predictions are shown to be due to differences in how content is consumed on the two portals: Digg stories quickly become outdated, while Youtube videos are still found long after they are initially submitted to the portal. We show that predictions are more accurate for submissions for which attention decays quickly, whereas predictions for evergreen content will be prone to larger errors.

Predicting the popularity of online content

We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the long-term dynamics of individual submissions from initial data. In the case of Digg, measuring access to given stories during the first two hours allows us to forecast their popularity 30 days ahead with remarkable accuracy, while downloads of Youtube videos need to be followed for 10 days to attain the same performance. The differing time scales of the predictions are shown to be due to differences in how content is consumed on the two portals: Digg stories quickly become outdated, while Youtube videos are still found long after they are initially submitted to the portal. We show that predictions are more accurate for submissions for which attention decays quickly, whereas predictions for evergreen content will be prone to larger errors.

Online social networking sites like MySpace, Facebook, and Flickr have become a popular way to share and disseminate content. Their massive popularity has led to viral marketing techniques that attempt to spread content, products, and ideas on these sites. However, there is little data publicly available on viral propagation in the real world and few studies have characterized how information spreads over current online social networks.In this paper, we collect and analyze large-scale traces of information dissemination in the Flickr social network. Our analysis, based on crawls of the favorite markings of 2.5 million users on 11 million photos, aims at answering three key questions: (a) how widely does information propagate in the social network? (b) how quickly does information propagate? and (c) what is the role of word-of-mouth exchanges between friends in the overall propagation of information in the network? Contrary to viral marketing ``intuition,'' we find that (a) even popular photos do not spread widely throughout the network, (b) even popular photos spread slowly through the network, and (c) information exchanged between friends is likely to account for over 50 of all favorite-markings, but with a significant delay at each hop.

/pdf/a-measurement-driven-analysis-of-information-propagation-in-25ow81shda.pdf

A measurement-driven analysis of information propagation in the flickr social network

We analyze the social network emerging from the user comment activity on the website Slashdot. The network presents common features of traditional social networks such as a giant component, small average path length and high clustering, but differs from them showing moderate reciprocity and neutral assortativity by degree. Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical tests, we show that the degree distributions are better explained by log-normal instead of power-law distributions. We also study the structure of discussion threads using an intuitive radial tree representation. Threads show strong heterogeneity and self-similarity throughout the different nesting levels of a conversation. We use these results to propose a simple measure to evaluate the degree of controversy provoked by a post.

/pdf/statistical-analysis-of-the-social-network-and-discussion-2153g2u5kf.pdf

Statistical analysis of the social network and discussion threads in slashdot

We perform a statistical analysis of user's reaction time to a new discussion thread in online debates on the popular news site Slashdot. First, we show with Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests that a mixture of two log-normal distributions combined with the circadian rhythm of the community is able to explain with surprising accuracy the reaction time of comments within a discussion thread. Second, this characterization allows to predict intermediate and long-term user behavior with acceptable precision. The prediction method is based on activity-prototypes, which consist of a mixture of two log-normal distributions, and represent the average activity in a particular region of the circadian cycle.

/pdf/description-and-prediction-of-slashdot-activity-24z5in1lvz.pdf

Description and Prediction of Slashdot Activity

The many-to-many social communication activity on the popular technology-news website Slashdot has been studied. We have concentrated on the dynamics of message production without considering semantic relations and have found regular temporal patterns in the reaction time of the community to a news-post as well as in single user behavior. The statistics of these activities follow log-normal distributions. Daily and weekly oscillatory cycles, which cause slight variations of this simple behavior, are identified. A superposition of two log-normal distributions can account for these variations. The findings are remarkable since the distribution of the number of comments per users, which is also analyzed, indicates a great amount of heterogeneity in the community. The reader may find surprising that only a few parameters allow a detailed description, or even prediction, of social many-to-many information exchange in this kind of popular public spaces.

Homogeneous temporal activity patterns in a large online communication space

The many-to-many social communication activity on the popular technology-news website Slashdot has been studied. We have concentrated on the dynamics of message production without considering semantic relations and have found regular temporal patterns in the reaction time of the community to a news-post as well as in single user behavior. The statistics of these activities follow log-normal distributions. Daily and weekly oscillatory cycles, which cause slight variations of this simple behavior, are identified. The findings are remarkable since the distribution of the number of comments per users, which is also analyzed, indicates a great amount of heterogeneity in the community. The reader may find surprising that only two parameters, those of the log-normal law, allow a detailed description, or even prediction, of social many-to-many information exchange in this kind of popular public spaces.

/pdf/homogeneous-temporal-activity-patterns-in-a-large-online-3vxvvx8e51.pdf

An ensemble of stochastic nonleaky integrate-and-fire neurons with global, delayed, and excitatory coupling and a small refractory period is analyzed. Simulations with adiabatic changes of the coupling strength indicate the presence of a phase transition accompanied by a hysteresis around a critical coupling strength. Below the critical coupling production of spikes in the ensemble is governed by the stochastic dynamics, whereas for coupling greater than the critical value, the stochastic dynamics loses its influence and the units organize into several clusters with self-sustained activity. All units within one cluster spike in unison, and the clusters themselves are phase-locked. Theoretical analysis leads to upper and lower bounds for the average interspike interval of the ensemble valid for all possible coupling strengths. The bounds allow calculating the limit behavior for large ensembles and characterize the phase transition analytically. These results may be extensible to pulse-coupled oscillators.

/pdf/phase-transition-and-hysteresis-in-an-ensemble-of-stochastic-1trd3dr4bc.pdf

Vicente López

Papers

Statistical analysis of the social network and discussion threads in slashdot

Description and Prediction of Slashdot Activity

Homogeneous temporal activity patterns in a large online communication space

Homogeneous temporal activity patterns in a large online communication space

Phase Transition and Hysteresis in an Ensemble of Stochastic Spiking Neurons