世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Explaining cross-country differences in growth rates requires not only an understanding of the link between growth and public policies, but also an understanding of why countries choose different public policies. This paper shows that ethnic diversity helps explain cross-country differences in public policies and other economic indicators. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is associated with low schooling, political instability, underdeveloped financial systems, distorted foreign exchange markets, high government deficits, and insufficient infrastructure. Africa's high ethnic fragmentation explains a significant part of most of these characteristics.

https://williameasterly.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/17_easterly_levine_africasgrowthtragedy_prp.pdf

Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Earnings Management and Investor Protection: An International Comparison

In the past decade, microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low-income households while maintaining high repayment rates--even without requiring collateral. The programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services, and millions of poor households are served globally. A growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success--particularly the use of group-lending contracts with joint liability. For the most part, however, high repayment rates have not translated into profits, and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture. In describing emerging tensions, the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group-lending contracts, the measurement of financial sustainability, the estimation of economic and social impacts, the costs and benefits of subsidization, and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit. The promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence, and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion.

/pdf/the-microfinance-promise-2e7oe4nvse.pdf

The microfinance promise

Interactions are investigated between exchange rates and stock prices in the emerging financial markets of India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines. The motivation is to establish the causal linkages between leading prices in the foreign exchange market and the stock market; the linkages have implications for the ongoing attempts to develop stock markets in emerging economies simultaneously with a policy shift towards independently floating exchange rates. Some recent econometric techniques are applied to a bivariate vector autoregressive model using monthly observations on the IFC stock price index and the real effective exchange rate over 1985:01–1994:07. The results show unidirectional causality from exchange rates to stock prices in all the sample countries, except the Philippines. This finding has policy implications; it suggests that respective governments should be cautious in their implementation of exchange rate policies, given that such policies have ramifications on their stock markets.

Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines

In this valuable new book, a distinguished group of authors takes stock of the existing state of knowledge in the field of finance and the development process. Each chapter offers a comprehensive survey and synthesis of current issues. These include such critical subjects as savings, financial markets and the macroeconomy, stock market development, financial regulation, foreign investment and aid, financing livelihoods, microfinance, rural financial markets, small and medium enterprises, corporate finance and banking.

Finance and Development

This paper reports an empirical assessment of competitive conditions among the major British banks, during a period of major structural change. Specifically, estimates of the Rosse–Panzar H-statistic are reported for a panel of 12 banks for the period 1980–2004. The sample banks correspond closely to the major British banking groups specified by the British Banking Association. The robustness of the results of the Rosse–Panzar methodology is tested by estimating the ratio of Lerner indices obtained from interest rate setting equations. The results confirm the consensus finding that competition in British banking is most accurately characterised by the theoretical model of monopolistic competition. There is evidence that the intensity of competition in the core market for bank lending remained approximately unchanged throughout the 1980s and 1990s. However, competition appears to have become less intense in the non-core (off-balance sheet) business of British banks.

Competitive conditions among the major British banks

https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/3179803/98c34.pdf

Capital flight and political risk

This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during a boom. Also some evidence is found for asymmetry in the United Kingdom and Belgium. In the Netherlands, monetary policy is not very effective in either regime.

Victor Murinde

Papers

Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines

Finance and Development

Competitive conditions among the major British banks

Capital flight and political risk

Capital flight and political risk