The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting.

Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting

For most deep learning practitioners, sequence modeling is synonymous with recurrent networks. Yet recent results indicate that convolutional architectures can outperform recurrent networks on tasks such as audio synthesis and machine translation. Given a new sequence modeling task or dataset, which architecture should one use? We conduct a systematic evaluation of generic convolutional and recurrent architectures for sequence modeling. The models are evaluated across a broad range of standard tasks that are commonly used to benchmark recurrent networks. Our results indicate that a simple convolutional architecture outperforms canonical recurrent networks such as LSTMs across a diverse range of tasks and datasets, while demonstrating longer effective memory. We conclude that the common association between sequence modeling and recurrent networks should be reconsidered, and convolutional networks should be regarded as a natural starting point for sequence modeling tasks. To assist related work, we have made code available at this http URL .

An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling

Timely accurate traffic forecast is crucial for urban traffic control and guidance. Due to the high nonlinearity and complexity of traffic flow, traditional methods cannot satisfy the requirements of mid-and-long term prediction tasks and often neglect spatial and temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN), to tackle the time series prediction problem in traffic domain. Instead of applying regular convolutional and recurrent units, we formulate the problem on graphs and build the model with complete convolutional structures, which enable much faster training speed with fewer parameters. Experiments show that our model STGCN effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling multi-scale traffic networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on various real-world traffic datasets.

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Spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks: a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting

Machine learning approaches are increasingly used to extract patterns and insights from the ever-increasing stream of geospatial data, but current approaches may not be optimal when system behaviour is dominated by spatial or temporal context. Here, rather than amending classical machine learning, we argue that these contextual cues should be used as part of deep learning (an approach that is able to extract spatio-temporal features automatically) to gain further process understanding of Earth system science problems, improving the predictive ability of seasonal forecasting and modelling of long-range spatial connections across multiple timescales, for example. The next step will be a hybrid modelling approach, coupling physical process models with the versatility of data-driven machine learning.

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Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science

Forecasting the flow of crowds is of great importance to traffic management and public safety, and very challenging as it is affected by many complex factors, such as inter-region traffic, events, and weather. We propose a deep-learning-based approach, called ST-ResNet, to collectively forecast the inflow and outflow of crowds in each and every region of a city. We design an end-to-end structure of ST-ResNet based on unique properties of spatio-temporal data. More specifically, we employ the residual neural network framework to model the temporal closeness, period, and trend properties of crowd traffic. For each property, we design a branch of residual convolutional units, each of which models the spatial properties of crowd traffic. ST-ResNet learns to dynamically aggregate the output of the three residual neural networks based on data, assigning different weights to different branches and regions. The aggregation is further combined with external factors, such as weather and day of the week, to predict the final traffic of crowds in each and every region. Experiments on two types of crowd flows in Beijing and New York City (NYC) demonstrate that the proposed ST-ResNet outperforms six well-known methods.

https://aaai.org/ocs/index.php/AAAI/AAAI17/paper/download/14501/13964

Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction

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Convolutional LSTM Network: a machine learning approach for precipitation nowcasting

With the goal of making high-resolution forecasts of regional rainfall, precipitation nowcasting has become an important and fundamental technology underlying various public services ranging from rainstorm warnings to flight safety. Recently, the Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) model has been shown to outperform traditional optical flow based methods for precipitation nowcasting, suggesting that deep learning models have a huge potential for solving the problem. However, the convolutional recurrence structure in ConvLSTM-based models is location-invariant while natural motion and transformation (e.g., rotation) are location-variant in general. Furthermore, since deep-learning-based precipitation nowcasting is a newly emerging area, clear evaluation protocols have not yet been established. To address these problems, we propose both a new model and a benchmark for precipitation nowcasting. Specifically, we go beyond ConvLSTM and propose the Trajectory GRU (TrajGRU) model that can actively learn the location-variant structure for recurrent connections. Besides, we provide a benchmark that includes a real-world large-scale dataset from the Hong Kong Observatory, a new training loss, and a comprehensive evaluation protocol to facilitate future research and gauge the state of the art.

Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model

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Hong Kong Observatory has been operating an in-house developed rainfall nowcasting system called “Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)” to support rainstorm warning and rainfall nowcasting services. A crucial step in rainfall nowcasting is the tracking of radar echoes to generate motion fields for extrapolation of rainfall areas in the following few hours. SWIRLS adopted a correlation-based method in its first operational version in 1999, which was subsequently replaced by optical flow algorithm in 2010 and further enhanced in 2013. The latest optical flow algorithm employs a transformation function to enhance a selected range of reflectivity for feature tracking. It also adopts variational optical flow computation that takes advantage of the Horn–Schunck approach and the Lucas–Kanade method. This paper details the three radar echo tracking algorithms, examines their performances in several significant rainstorm cases and summaries verification results of multi-year performances. The limitations of the current approach are discussed. Developments underway along with future research areas are also presented.

Wang-chun Woo

Papers

Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting

Convolutional LSTM Network: a machine learning approach for precipitation nowcasting

Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model

Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model

Operational Application of Optical Flow Techniques to Radar-Based Rainfall Nowcasting