This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. To organize the discussion, we exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real word complications. We concentrate on developing results that are robust across a reasonable variety of competing macroeconomic frameworks. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fight inflation and consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information and model uncertainty. Finally, we assess how proposed simple rules, such as the Taylor rule, square with the principles for optimal policy that we describe. We use this same metric to evaluate the recent course of U.S. monetary policy.

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The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective

The central claim in this paper is that by explicitly introducing costs of international trade (narrowly, transport costs, but more broadly, tariffs, nontariff barriers, and other trade costs), one can go far toward explaining a great number of the main empirical puzzles that international macroeconomists have struggled with over twenty-five years. Our approach elucidates J. McCallum's home-bias-in-trade puzzle, the Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment puzzle, the French-Poterba equity-home-bias puzzle, and the Backus-Kehoe-Kydland consumption-correlations puzzle. That one simple alteration to an otherwise canonical international macroeconomic model can help substantially to explain such a broad range of empirical puzzles, including some that previously seemed intractable, suggests a rich area for future research. We also address a variety of international pricing puzzles, including the purchasing-power-parity puzzle emphasized by Rogoff, and what we term the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle. The latter cat...

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The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?

Part 1 Empirical evidence on money and output: introduction some basic correlations estimating the effect of money on output summary. Part 2 Money in a general equilibrium framework: introduction the Tobin effect money in the utility function summary appendix - the MIU approximation problems. Part 3 Money and transactions: introduction shopping-time models cash-in-advance models other approaches summary appendix - the CIA approximation problems. Part 4 Money and public finance: introduction bugdet accounting equilibrium seigniorage optimal taxation and seigniorage Friedman's rule revisited nonindexed tax systems problems. Part 5 Money and output in the short run: introduction flexible prices sticky prices and wages a framework for monetary analysis inflation persistence summary appendix problems. Part 6 Money and the open economy: introduction the Obstfeld-Rogoff two-country model policy coordination the small open economy summary appendix problems. Part 7 The credit channel of monetary policy: introduction imperfect information in credit markets macroeconomic implications does credit matter? summary. Part 8 Discretionary policy and time inconsistency: introduction inflation under discretionary policy solutions to the inflation bias is the inflation bias important? do central banking institutions matter? lessons and conclusions problems. Part 9 Monetary-policy operating procedures: introduction from instruments to goals the instrument-choice problem operating procedures and policy measures problems. Part 10 Interest rates and monetary policy: introduction interest-rate rule and the price level interest rate policies in general equilibrium models the term structure of interest rates a model for policy analysis summary problems.

Monetary Theory and Policy

This paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period. Our approach is complementary to that of Friedman and Schwartz, who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures; we focus on non-monetary (primarily credit-related) aspects of the financial sector--output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system. We argue that the financial disruptions of 1930-33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process; and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand. Evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the Great Depression.

Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression

Real-life decisions are usually made in the state of uncertainty such as randomness and fuzziness. How do we model optimization problems in uncertain environments? How do we solve these models? In order to answer these questions, this book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertain programming theory, including numerous modeling ideas, hybrid intelligent algorithms, and applications in system reliability design, project scheduling problem, vehicle routing problem, facility location problem, and machine scheduling problem. Researchers, practitioners and students in operations research, management science, information science, system science, and engineering will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.

Theory and practice of uncertain programming

This article describes three long-run monetary facts derived by examining data for 110 countries over a 30-year period, using three definitions of a country’s money supply and two subsamples of countries: (1) Growth rates of the money supply and the general price level are highly correlated for all three money definitions, for the full sample of countries, and for both subsamples. (2) The growth rates of money and real output are not correlated, except for a subsample of countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, where these growth rates are positively correlated. (3) The rate of inflation and the growth rate of real output are essentially uncorrelated.

http://drphilipshaw.com/Protected/Some%20Monetary%20Facts.pdf

Some Monetary Facts

A consensus has emerged among practitioners that the instrument of monetary policy ought to be the short-term interest rate, that policy should be focused on the control of inflation, and that inflation can be reduced by increasing short-term interest rates. At the center of this consensus is a rejection of the quantity theory. Such a rejection is a difficult step to take, given the mass of evidence linking money growth, inflation, and interest rates: increases in average rates of money growth are associated with equal increases in average inflation rates and interest rates. These observations need not rule out a constructive role for the use of short-term interest rates as a monetary instrument. One possibility is that increasing short-term rates in the face of increases in inflation is just an indirect way of reducing money growth: sell bonds and take money out of the system. Another possibility is that, while control of monetary aggregates is the key to low long-run average inflation rates, an interest-rate policy can improve the short-run behavior of interest rates and prices. The shortrun connections among money growth, inflation, and interest rates are very unreliable, so there is much room for improvement. These possibilities are surely worth exploring, but doing so requires new theory. The analysis needed to reconcile interest-rate policies with the evidence on which the quantity theory of money is grounded cannot be found in old textbook diagrams.

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Interest Rates and Inflation

New Evidence on the Free Banking Era

The causes of free bank failures: A detailed examination

We examine the behavior of money, inflation, and output under fiat and commodity standards to better understand how changes in monetary policy affect economic activity. Using long‐term historical data for 15 countries, we find that, under fiat standards, the growth rates of various monetary aggregates are more highly correlated with inflation and with each other than under commodity standards. Money growth, inflation, and output growth are also higher. In contrast, we do not find that money growth is more highly correlated with output growth under one standard than under the other.

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Warren E. Weber

Papers

Some Monetary Facts

Interest Rates and Inflation

New Evidence on the Free Banking Era

The causes of free bank failures: A detailed examination

Money, Inflation, and Output under Fiat and Commodity Standards