计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

An important part of our information-gathering behavior has always been to find out what other people think. With the growing availability and popularity of opinion-rich resources such as online review sites and personal blogs, new opportunities and challenges arise as people now can, and do, actively use information technologies to seek out and understand the opinions of others. The sudden eruption of activity in the area of opinion mining and sentiment analysis, which deals with the computational treatment of opinion, sentiment, and subjectivity in text, has thus occurred at least in part as a direct response to the surge of interest in new systems that deal directly with opinions as a first-class object.

This survey covers techniques and approaches that promise to directly enable opinion-oriented information-seeking systems. Our focus is on methods that seek to address the new challenges raised by sentiment-aware applications, as compared to those that are already present in more traditional fact-based analysis. We include material on summarization of evaluative text and on broader issues regarding privacy, manipulation, and economic impact that the development of opinion-oriented information-access services gives rise to. To facilitate future work, a discussion of available resources, benchmark datasets, and evaluation campaigns is also provided.

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Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis

https://steadystate.org/wp-content/uploads/Stern_KuznetsCurve.pdf

The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

https://mimoza.marmara.edu.tr/~mtekce/Dinda_2004.pdf

Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey

Previous research uses negative word counts to measure the tone of a text. We show that word lists developed for other disciplines misclassify common words in financial text. In a large sample of 10 Ks during 1994 to 2008, almost three-fourths of the words identified as negative by the widely used Harvard Dictionary are words typically not considered negative in financial contexts. We develop an alternative negative word list, along with five other word lists, that better reflect tone in financial text. We link the word lists to 10 K filing returns, trading volume, return volatility, fraud, material weakness, and unexpected earnings.

When is a Liability not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks

This paper sets out a theory of how openness to international goods markets affects pollution concentrations. We develop a theoretical model to divide trade's impact on pollution into scale, technique and composition effects and then examine this theory using data on sulfur dioxide concentrations from the Global Environment Monitoring Project. We find international trade creates relatively small changes in pollution concentrations when it alters the composition, and hence the pollution intensity, of national output. Our estimates of the associated technique and scale effects created by trade imply a net reduction in pollutio n from these sources. Combining our estimates of scale, composition and technique effects yields a somewhat surprising conclusion: freer trade appears to be good for the environment.

/pdf/is-free-trade-good-for-the-environment-2rsf0y98qe.pdf

Is Free Trade Good for the Environment

Financial press reports claim that Internet stock message boards can move markets We study the effect of more than 15 million messages posted on Yahoo! Finance and Raging Bull about the 45 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Internet Index Bullishness is measured using computational linguistics methods Wall Street Journal news stories are used as controls We find that stock messages help predict market volatility Their effect on stock returns is statistically significant but economically small Consistent with Harris and Raviv (1993), disagreement among the posted messages is associated with increased trading volume MANY PEOPLE ARE DEVOTING a considerable amount of time and effort creating and reading the messages posted on Internet stock message boards News stories report that the message boards are having a significant impact on financial markets The Securities and Exchange Commission has prosecuted people for Internet messages All this attention to Internet stock messages caused us to wonder whether these messages actually contain financially relevant information 1 We consider three specific issues Does the number of messages posted or the bullishness of these messages help to predict returns? Is disagreement among the messages associated with more trades? Does the level of message posting or the bullishness of the messages help to predict volatility? The first issue is, does the level of message activity or the bullishness of the messages successfully predict subsequent stock returns? This is the natural starting place because a very high proportion of the messages contain explicit assertions that the particular stock is either a good buy or a bad buy Of course, there are a great many previous empirical studies showing how hard it is to predict stock returns by enough to cover transactions costs We find that there is evidence of a small degree of negative predictability even after controlling for bid‐ask bounce When many messages are posted on a given day, there ∗ Both authors are at the Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia We would

/pdf/is-all-that-talk-just-noise-the-information-content-of-4k4ihz1uz3.pdf

Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards

Syndication arises when venture capitalists jointly invest in projects. We model and test two possible reasons for syndication: project selection, as an additional venture capitalist provides an informative second opinion; and complementary management skills of additional venture capitalists. The central question is whether venture capitalists are engaged primarily in selection or in managerial value added. These alternatives imply contrasting predictions about comparative returns to syndicated and standalone investments. Our empirical analysis, using Canadian data, finds that syndicated investments have higher returns, favoring the value-added interpretation. We also discuss risk sharing and project scale as possible reasons for syndication.

/pdf/venture-capital-syndication-improved-venture-selection-vs-2dq387jp2d.pdf

Venture‐Capital Syndication: Improved Venture Selection vs. The Value‐Added Hypothesis

Literally millions of messages have been posted on internet stock message boards. Financial press reports claim that these postings can move markets. We study message posting on Yahoo! Finance and Raging Bull for the firms that were in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index during the year 2000. Using computional linguistics methods we measure the bullishness of the messages. Significant predictive content was found between message posting and trading volume, between message posting and volatility, between the degree of bullishness of the messages and trading volume. These results were obtained even after taking news stories from the Wall Street Journal into account.

Do scale economies help to explain international trade flows? Using a large database on output, trade flows, and factor endowments, we find that allowing for the presence of increasing returns to scale in production significantly increases our ability to predict international trade flows. In particular, using trade data, we find that a third of all goods-producing industries are characterized by increasing returns to scale. Thus, scale economies are a quantifiable and important source of comparative advantage. (JEL F11, F12, D2)

/pdf/increasing-returns-and-all-that-a-view-from-trade-4g8oerhqtp.pdf

Werner Antweiler

Papers

Is Free Trade Good for the Environment

Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards

Venture‐Capital Syndication: Improved Venture Selection vs. The Value‐Added Hypothesis

Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards

Increasing Returns and All That: A View From Trade