Random forests are a combination of tree predictors such that each tree depends on the values of a random vector sampled independently and with the same distribution for all trees in the forest. The generalization error for forests converges a.s. to a limit as the number of trees in the forest becomes large. The generalization error of a forest of tree classifiers depends on the strength of the individual trees in the forest and the correlation between them. Using a random selection of features to split each node yields error rates that compare favorably to Adaboost (Y. Freund & R. Schapire, Machine Learning: Proceedings of the Thirteenth International conference, aaa, 148–156), but are more robust with respect to noise. Internal estimates monitor error, strength, and correlation and these are used to show the response to increasing the number of features used in the splitting. Internal estimates are also used to measure variable importance. These ideas are also applicable to regression.

Random Forests

Deep learning is a form of machine learning that enables computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts. Because the computer gathers knowledge from experience, there is no need for a human computer operator to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts allows the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones; a graph of these hierarchies would be many layers deep. This book introduces a broad range of topics in deep learning. The text offers mathematical and conceptual background, covering relevant concepts in linear algebra, probability theory and information theory, numerical computation, and machine learning. It describes deep learning techniques used by practitioners in industry, including deep feedforward networks, regularization, optimization algorithms, convolutional networks, sequence modeling, and practical methodology; and it surveys such applications as natural language processing, speech recognition, computer vision, online recommendation systems, bioinformatics, and videogames. Finally, the book offers research perspectives, covering such theoretical topics as linear factor models, autoencoders, representation learning, structured probabilistic models, Monte Carlo methods, the partition function, approximate inference, and deep generative models. Deep Learning can be used by undergraduate or graduate students planning careers in either industry or research, and by software engineers who want to begin using deep learning in their products or platforms. A website offers supplementary material for both readers and instructors.

Deep Learning

Numerical Optimization presents a comprehensive and up-to-date description of the most effective methods in continuous optimization. It responds to the growing interest in optimization in engineering, science, and business by focusing on the methods that are best suited to practical problems. For this new edition the book has been thoroughly updated throughout. There are new chapters on nonlinear interior methods and derivative-free methods for optimization, both of which are used widely in practice and the focus of much current research. Because of the emphasis on practical methods, as well as the extensive illustrations and exercises, the book is accessible to a wide audience. It can be used as a graduate text in engineering, operations research, mathematics, computer science, and business. It also serves as a handbook for researchers and practitioners in the field. The authors have strived to produce a text that is pleasant to read, informative, and rigorous - one that reveals both the beautiful nature of the discipline and its practical side.

Numerical Optimization

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

A framework is developed to explore the connection between effective optimization algorithms and the problems they are solving. A number of "no free lunch" (NFL) theorems are presented which establish that for any algorithm, any elevated performance over one class of problems is offset by performance over another class. These theorems result in a geometric interpretation of what it means for an algorithm to be well suited to an optimization problem. Applications of the NFL theorems to information-theoretic aspects of optimization and benchmark measures of performance are also presented. Other issues addressed include time-varying optimization problems and a priori "head-to-head" minimax distinctions between optimization algorithms, distinctions that result despite the NFL theorems' enforcing of a type of uniformity over all algorithms.

/pdf/no-free-lunch-theorems-for-optimization-aoo4zkggf4.pdf

No free lunch theorems for optimization

Technological change at the firm level has commonly been modeled as random sampling from a fixed distribution o f possibilities. Such models, however, typically ignore empirically important aspects of the firm's search process, notably the observation that the present state of the firm guides future innovation. In this paper we explicitly treat this apsect of the firm's search for technological improvements by introducing a "technology landscape" into an otherwise standard dynamic programming setting where the optimal strategy is to assign a reservation price to each possible technology. Search is modeled as movement, constrained by the cost of innovation, over the technology landscape. Simulations are presented on a stylized technology landscape while analytic results are derived using landscapes that are similar to Markov random fields. We find that early in the search for technological improvements, if the inital position is poor or average, it is optimal to search far away on the technology landscape; but as the firm succeeds in finding technological improvements it is optimal to confine search to a local region of the landscape. We obtain the result that there are diminishing returns to search without having to make the assumption that the firm's repeated draws from the search space are independent and identically distributed.

Optimal Search on a Technology Landscape

In bagging [Bre94a] one uses bootstrap replicates of the training set [Efr79, ET93] to try to improve a learning algorithm's performance. The computational requirements for estimating the resultant generalization error on a test set by means of cross-validation are often prohibitive; for leave-one-out cross-validation one needs to train the underlying algorithm on the order of $m\nu$ times, where m is the size of the training set and $\nu$ is the number of replicates. This paper presents several techniques for exploiting the bias-variance decomposition [GBD92, Wol96] to estimate the generalization error of a bagged learning algorithm without invoking yet more training of the underlying learning algorithm. The best of our estimators exploits stacking [Wol92]. In a set of experiments reported here, it was found to be more accurate than both the alternative cross-validation-based estimator of the bagged algorithm's error and the cross-validation-based estimator of the underlying algorithm's error. This improvement was particularly pronounced for small test sests. This suggests a novel justification for using bagging---improved estimation of generalization error. Key words. machine learning, regression, bootstrap, bagging

An Efficient Method to Estimate Bagging's Generalization Error

The representation of the approximate posterior is a critical aspect of effective variational autoencoders (VAEs). Poor choices for the approximate posterior have a detrimental impact on the generative performance of VAEs due to the mismatch with the true posterior. We extend the class of posterior models that may be learned by using undirected graphical models. We develop an efficient method to train undirected approximate posteriors by showing that the gradient of the training objective with respect to the parameters of the undirected posterior can be computed by backpropagation through Markov chain Monte Carlo updates. We apply these gradient estimators for training discrete VAEs with Boltzmann machines as approximate posteriors and demonstrate that undirected models outperform previous results obtained using directed graphical models. Our implementation is available at this https URL .

Undirected Graphical Models as Approximate Posteriors

Boltzmann machines are powerful distributions that have been shown to be an effective prior over binary latent variables in variational autoencoders (VAEs). However, previous methods for training discrete VAEs have used the evidence lower bound and not the tighter importance-weighted bound. We propose two approaches for relaxing Boltzmann machines to continuous distributions that permit training with importance-weighted bounds. These relaxations are based on generalized overlapping transformations and the Gaussian integral trick. Experiments on the MNIST and OMNIGLOT datasets show that these relaxations outperform previous discrete VAEs with Boltzmann priors. An implementation which reproduces these results is available at this https URL .

DVAE#: Discrete Variational Autoencoders with Relaxed Boltzmann Priors

Technological change at the firm-level has commonly been modeled as random sampling from a fixed distribution of possibilities. Such models, however, typically ignore empirically important aspects of the firm's search process, notably the observation that the present state of the firm guides future innovation. In this paper we explicitly treat this aspect of the firm's search for technological improvements by introducing a “technology landscape” into an otherwise standard dynamic programming setting where the optimal strategy is to assign a reservation price to each possible technology. Search is modeled as movement, constrained by the cost of innovation, over the technology landscape. Simulations are presented on a stylized technology landscape while analytic results are derived using landscapes that are similar to Markov random fields. We find that early in the search for technological improvements, if the initial position is poor or average, it is optimal to search far away on the technology landscape; but as the firm succeeds in finding technological improvements it is optimal to confine search to a local region of the landscape. We obtain the result that there are diminishing returns to search without having to make the assumption that the firm's repeated draws from the search space are independent and identically distributed.

William G. Macready

Papers

Optimal Search on a Technology Landscape

An Efficient Method to Estimate Bagging's Generalization Error

Undirected Graphical Models as Approximate Posteriors

DVAE#: Discrete Variational Autoencoders with Relaxed Boltzmann Priors

A method for optimal search on a technology landscape