Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

[1] We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2002JD002670

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

Two new high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis products have been developed using optimum interpolation (OI). The analyses have a spatial grid resolution of 0.25° and a temporal resolution of 1 day. One product uses the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared satellite SST data. The other uses AVHRR and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on the NASA Earth Observing System satellite SST data. Both products also use in situ data from ships and buoys and include a large-scale adjustment of satellite biases with respect to the in situ data. Because of AMSR’s near-all-weather coverage, there is an increase in OI signal variance when AMSR is added to AVHRR. Thus, two products are needed to avoid an analysis variance jump when AMSR became available in June 2002. For both products, the results show improved spatial and temporal resolution compared to previous weekly 1° OI analyses. The AVHRR-only product uses Pathfinder AVHRR data (currently available from January 1985 to December 2005) and operational AVHRR data for 2006 onward. Pathfinder AVHRR was chosen over operational AVHRR, when available, because Pathfinder agrees better with the in situ data. The AMSR– AVHRR product begins with the start of AMSR data in June 2002. In this product, the primary AVHRR contribution is in regions near land where AMSR is not available. However, in cloud-free regions, use of both infrared and microwave instruments can reduce systematic biases because their error characteristics are independent.

Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature

The ice arches that usually develop at the northern and southern ends of Nares Strait play an important role in modulating the export of Arctic Ocean multi-year sea ice. The Arctic Ocean is evolving towards an ice pack that is younger, thinner, and more mobile and the fate of its multi-year ice is becoming of increasing interest. Here, we use sea ice motion retrievals from Sentinel-1 imagery to report on the recent behavior of these ice arches and the associated ice fluxes. We show that the duration of arch formation has decreased over the past 20 years, while the ice area and volume fluxes along Nares Strait have both increased. These results suggest that a transition is underway towards a state where the formation of these arches will become atypical with a concomitant increase in the export of multi-year ice accelerating the transition towards a younger and thinner Arctic ice pack.

/pdf/anomalous-collapses-of-nares-strait-ice-arches-leads-to-324nz6s0se.pdf

Anomalous collapses of Nares Strait ice arches leads to enhanced export of Arctic sea ice

Progress in urban climatology over the two decades since the first publication of the International Journal of Climatology is reviewed. It is emphasized that urban climatology during this period has benefited from conceptual advances made in microclimatology and boundary-layer climatology in general. The role of scale, heterogeneity, dynamic source areas for turbulent fluxes and the complexity introduced by the roughness sublayer over the tall, rigid roughness elements of cities is described. The diversity of urban heat islands, depending on the medium sensed and the sensing technique, is explained. The review focuses on two areas within urban climatology. First, it assesses advances in the study of selected urban climatic processes relating to urban atmospheric turbulence (including surface roughness) and exchange processes for energy and water, at scales of consideration ranging from individual facets of the urban environment, through streets and city blocks to neighbourhoods. Second, it explores the literature on the urban temperature field. The state of knowledge about urban heat islands around 1980 is described and work since then is assessed in terms of similarities to and contrasts with that situation. Finally, the main advances are summarized and recommendations for urban climate work in the future are made. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

/pdf/two-decades-of-urban-climate-research-a-review-of-turbulence-12p43b6trj.pdf

Two decades of urban climate research: a review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island

Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography

Chapter and section headings: Preface. Acknowledgments. Data Acquisition and Recording. Introduction. Basic sampling requirements. Temperature. Salinity. Depth or pressure. Sea-level measurement. Eulerian currents. Lagrangian current measurements. Wind. Precipitation. Chemical tracers. Transient chemical tracers. Data Processing and Presentation. Introduction. Calibration. Interpolation. Data presentation. Statistical Methods and Error Handling. Introduction. Sample distributions. Probability. Moments and expected values. Common probability density functions. Central limit theorem. Estimation. Confidence intervals. Selecting the sample size. Confidence intervals for altimeter bias estimators. Estimation methods. Linear estimation (regression). Relationship between regression and correlation. Hypothesis testing. Effective degrees of freedom. Editing and despiking techniques: the nature of errors. Interpolation: filling the data gaps. Covariance and the covariance matrix. Bootstrap and jackknife methods. The Spatial Analyses of Data Fields. Traditional block and bulk averaging. Objective analysis. Empirical orthogonal functions. Normal mode analysis. Inverse methods. Time-series Analysis Methods. Basic concepts. Stochastic processes and stationarity. Correlation functions. Fourier analysis. Harmonic analysis. Spectral analysis. Spectral analysis (parametric methods). Cross-spectral analysis. Wavelet analysis. Digital filters. Fractals. Appendices. References. Index. 8 illus., 135 line drawings.

[1] Satellite-derived estimates of sea-ice age and thickness are combined to produce a proxy ice thickness record for 1982 to the present. These data show that in addition to the well-documented loss of perennial ice cover as a whole, the amount of oldest and thickest ice within the remaining multiyear ice pack has declined significantly. The oldest ice types have essentially disappeared, and 58% of the multiyear ice now consists of relatively young 2- and 3-year-old ice compared to 35% in the mid-1980s. Ice coverage in summer 2007 reached a record minimum, with ice extent declining by 42% compared to conditions in the 1980s. The much-reduced extent of the oldest and thickest ice, in combination with other factors such as ice transport that assist the ice-albedo feedback by exposing more open water, help explain this large and abrupt ice loss.

http://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~scia30/2008/SOURCEBOOK/2007_Maslanik_GRL.pdf

A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss

NOAA AVHRR satellite infra-red data are used to display the surface radiant temperature heat islands of Vancouver, British Columbia, Seattle, Washington, and Los Angeles, California. Heat island intensities are largest in the day-time and in the warm season. Day-time intra-urban thermal patterns are strongly correlated with land-use; industrial areas are warmest and vegetated, riverine or coastal areas are coolest. Nocturnal heat island intensities and the correlation of the surface radiant temperature distribution with land use are less. This is the reverse of the known characteristics of near-surface air temperature heat islands. Several questions relating to the interpretation and limitations of satellite data in heat island analysis and urban climate modelling are addressed.

Satellite-derived urban heat islands from three coastal cities and the utilization of such data in urban climatology

[1] Analysis of a satellite-derived record of sea ice age for 1980 through March 2011 shows continued net decrease in multiyear ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean, with particularly extensive loss of the oldest ice types. The fraction of total ice extent made up of multiyear sea ice in March decreased from about 75% in the mid 1980s to 45% in 2011, while the proportion of the oldest ice declined from 50% of the multiyear ice pack to 10%. These losses in the oldest ice now extend into the central Arctic Ocean and adjacent to the Canadian Archipelago; areas where the ice cover was relatively stable prior to 2007 and where long-term survival of sea ice through summer is considered to be most likely. Following record-minimum multiyear ice coverage in summer 2008, the total multiyear ice extent has increased to amounts consistent with the negative trend from 2001–2006, with an increasing proportion of older ice types. This implies some ability for the ice pack to recover from extreme conditions. This recovery has been weakest in the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin though, with multiyear ice coverage decreasing by 83% from 2002 to 2009 in the Canada Basin, and with more multiyear ice extent now lost in the Pacific sector than elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2011GL047735

William J. Emery

Papers

Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography

Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography

A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss

Satellite-derived urban heat islands from three coastal cities and the utilization of such data in urban climatology

Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011