Showing papers in "Geophysical Research Letters in 2011"

Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise

Abstract: [1] Ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques, over different time periods, and at various levels of spatial detail. Considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method, the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates, and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance. Here, we present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity. We find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss. In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 Gt/yr, equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise. Notably, the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21.9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 for Greenland and 14.5 ± 2 Gt/yr2 for Antarctica, for a combined total of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2. This acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps (12 ± 6 Gt/yr2). If this trend continues, ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century.

A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance

Abstract: [1] The most accurate value of total solar irradiance during the 2008 solar minimum period is 1360.8 ± 0.5 W m−2 according to measurements from the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) on NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and a series of new radiometric laboratory tests. This value is significantly lower than the canonical value of 1365.4 ± 1.3 W m−2 established in the 1990s, which energy balance calculations and climate models currently use. Scattered light is a primary cause of the higher irradiance values measured by the earlier generation of solar radiometers in which the precision aperture defining the measured solar beam is located behind a larger, view-limiting aperture. In the TIM, the opposite order of these apertures precludes this spurious signal by limiting the light entering the instrument. We assess the accuracy and stability of irradiance measurements made since 1978 and the implications of instrument uncertainties and instabilities for climate research in comparison with the new TIM data. TIM's lower solar irradiance value is not a change in the Sun's output, whose variations it detects with stability comparable or superior to prior measurements; instead, its significance is in advancing the capability of monitoring solar irradiance variations on climate-relevant time scales and in improving estimates of Earth energy balance, which the Sun initiates.

New global observations of the terrestrial carbon cycle from GOSAT: Patterns of plant fluorescence with gross primary productivity

Abstract: Our ability to close the Earth's carbon budget and predict feedbacks in a warming climate depends critically on knowing where, when and how carbon dioxide is exchanged between the land and atmosphere. Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) constitutes the largest flux component in the global carbon budget, however significant uncertainties remain in GPP estimates and its seasonality. Empirically, we show that global spaceborne observations of solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence – occurring during photosynthesis – exhibit a strong linear correlation with GPP. We found that the fluorescence emission even without any additional climatic or model information has the same or better predictive skill in estimating GPP as those derived from traditional remotely-sensed vegetation indices using ancillary data and model assumptions. In boreal summer the generally strong linear correlation between fluorescence and GPP models weakens, attributable to discrepancies in savannas/croplands (18–48% higher fluorescence-based GPP derived by simple linear scaling), and high-latitude needleleaf forests (28–32% lower fluorescence). Our results demonstrate that retrievals of chlorophyll fluorescence provide direct global observational constraints for GPP and open an entirely new viewpoint on the global carbon cycle. We anticipate that global fluorescence data in combination with consolidated plant physiological fluorescence models will be a step-change in carbon cycle research and enable an unprecedented robustness in the understanding of the current and future carbon cycle.

Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

Abstract: [1] The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850–2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006–2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850–2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley

Abstract: In highly-productive agricultural areas such as California's Central Valley, where groundwater often supplies the bulk of the water required for irrigation, quantifying rates of groundwater depletion remains a challenge owing to a lack of monitoring infrastructure and the absence of water use reporting requirements. Here we use 78 months (October, 2003–March, 2010) of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to estimate water storage changes in California's Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins. We find that the basins are losing water at a rate of 31.0 ± 2.7 mm yr−1 equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 30.9 km3 for the study period, or nearly the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States. We use additional observations and hydrological model information to determine that the majority of these losses are due to groundwater depletion in the Central Valley. Our results show that the Central Valley lost 20.4 ± 3.9 mm yr−1 of groundwater during the 78-month period, or 20.3 km3 in volume. Continued groundwater depletion at this rate may well be unsustainable, with potentially dire consequences for the economic and food security of the United States.

Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011

Abstract: [1] Analysis of a satellite-derived record of sea ice age for 1980 through March 2011 shows continued net decrease in multiyear ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean, with particularly extensive loss of the oldest ice types. The fraction of total ice extent made up of multiyear sea ice in March decreased from about 75% in the mid 1980s to 45% in 2011, while the proportion of the oldest ice declined from 50% of the multiyear ice pack to 10%. These losses in the oldest ice now extend into the central Arctic Ocean and adjacent to the Canadian Archipelago; areas where the ice cover was relatively stable prior to 2007 and where long-term survival of sea ice through summer is considered to be most likely. Following record-minimum multiyear ice coverage in summer 2008, the total multiyear ice extent has increased to amounts consistent with the negative trend from 2001–2006, with an increasing proportion of older ice types. This implies some ability for the ice pack to recover from extreme conditions. This recovery has been weakest in the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin though, with multiyear ice coverage decreasing by 83% from 2002 to 2009 in the Canada Basin, and with more multiyear ice extent now lost in the Pacific sector than elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean.

Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave

Abstract: [1] The 2010 summer heat wave in western Russia was extraordinary, with the region experiencing the warmest July since at least 1880 and numerous locations setting all-time maximum temperature records. This study explores whether early warning could have been provided through knowledge of natural and human-caused climate forcings. Model simulations and observational data are used to determine the impact of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice conditions and greenhouse gas concentrations. Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave. They also provide evidence that such an intense event could be produced through natural variability alone. Analysis of observations indicate that this heat wave was mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that produced and maintained a strong and long-lived blocking event, and that similar atmospheric patterns have occurred with prior heat waves in this region. We conclude that the intense 2010 Russian heat wave was mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability. Slowly varying boundary conditions that could have provided predictability and the potential for early warning did not appear to play an appreciable role in this event.

Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

Abstract: We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.

Survey of 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami inundation and run‐up

Abstract: [1] At 14:46 local time on March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred off the coast of northeast Japan. This earthquake generated a tsunami that struck Japan as well as various locations around the Pacific Ocean. With the participation of researchers from throughout Japan, joint research groups conducted a tsunami survey along a 2000 km stretch of the Japanese coast. More than 5300 locations have been surveyed to date, generating the largest tsunami survey dataset in the world. On the Sendai Plain, the maximum inundation height was 19.5 m, and the tsunami bore propagated more than 5 km inland. Along the ria coast from about 50 to 200 km north of Sendai, the narrow bays focused the tsunami waves, generating the largest inundation heights and run-ups. The survey data clearly show a regional dependence of tsunami characteristics.

The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region

Abstract: [1] The year 2010 featured a widespread drought in the Amazon rain forest, which was more severe than the “once‐in‐a‐century” drought of 2005. Water levels of major Amazon tributaries fell drastically to unprecedented low values, and isolated the floodplain population whose transportation depends upon on local streams which completely dried up. The drought of 2010 in Amazonia started in early austral summer during El Nino and then was intensified as a consequence of the warming of the tropical North Atlantic. An observed tendency for an increase in dry and very dry events, particularly in southern Amazonia during the dry season, is concomitant with an increase in the length of the dry season. Our results suggest that it is by means of a longer dry season that warming in the tropical North Atlantic affects the hydrology of the Amazon Rivers at the end of the recession period (austral spring). This process is, sometimes, further aggravated by deficient rainfall in the previous wet season. Citation: Marengo, J. A., J. Tomasella, L. M. Alves, W. R. Soares, and D. A. Rodriguez (2011), The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12703, doi:10.1029/2011GL047436.

ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño

Abstract: [1] We propose that the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies do not describe different phenomena (i.e., El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and “El Nino Modoki”) but rather the nonlinear evolution of ENSO. We introduce two new uncorrelated indices (E and C), based on the leading EOFs, that respectively account for extreme warm events in the eastern and cold/moderate warm events in the central equatorial Pacific, corresponding to regimes with different evolution. Recent trends in ENSO can be described as an increase in the central Pacific (C) variability that is associated with stronger cold events, as well as a reduction in the eastern Pacific (E) variability within the cold/moderate warm regime, consistent with model projections. However, little can be said observationally with respect to the extreme warm regime.

Antarctic grounding line mapping from differential satellite radar interferometry

Abstract: [1] The delineation of an ice sheet grounding line, i.e., the transition boundary where ice detaches from the bed and becomes afloat in the ocean, is critical to ice sheet mass budget calculations, numerical modeling of ice sheet dynamics, ice-ocean interactions, oceanic tides, and subglacial environments. Here, we present 15 years of comprehensive, high-resolution mapping of grounding lines in Antarctica using differential satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) data from the Earth Remote Sensing Satellites 1–2 (ERS-1/2), RADARSAT-1 and 2, and the Advanced Land Observing System (ALOS) PALSAR for years 1994 to 2009. DInSAR directly measures the vertical motion of floating ice shelves in response to tidal oceanic forcing with millimeter precision, at a sample spacing better than 50 m, simultaneously over areas several 100 km wide; in contrast with earlier methods that detect abrupt changes in surface slope in satellite visible imagery or altimetry data. On stagnant and slow-moving areas, we find that breaks in surface slope are reliable indicators of grounding lines; but on most fast-moving glaciers and ice streams, our DInSAR results reveal that prior mappings have positioning errors ranging from a few km to over 100 km. A better agreement is found with ICESat's data, also based on measurements of vertical motion, but with a detection noise one order of magnitude larger than with DInSAR. Overall, the DInSAR mapping of Antarctic grounding lines completely redefines the coastline of Antarctica.

Toward accurate CO2 and CH4 observations from GOSAT

Abstract: [1] The column-average dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane and are inferred from observations of backscattered sunlight conducted by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Comparing the first year of GOSAT retrievals over land with colocated ground-based observations of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), we find an average difference (bias) of −0.05% and −0.30% for and with a station-to-station variability (standard deviation of the bias) of 0.37% and 0.26% among the 6 considered TCCON sites. The root-mean square deviation of the bias-corrected satellite retrievals from colocated TCCON observations amounts to 2.8 ppm for and 0.015 ppm for Without any data averaging, the GOSAT records reproduce general source/sink patterns such as the seasonal cycle of suggesting the use of the satellite retrievals for constraining surface fluxes.

Atmospheric behavior, deposition, and budget of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011

Abstract: [1] To understand the atmospheric behavior of radioactive materials emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the nuclear accident that accompanied the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011, we simulated the transport and deposition of iodine-131 and cesium-137 using a chemical transport model. The model roughly reproduced the observed temporal and spatial variations of deposition rates over 15 Japanese prefectures (60−400 km from the plant), including Tokyo, although there were some discrepancies between the simulated and observed rates. These discrepancies were likely due to uncertainties in the simulation of emission, transport, and deposition processes in the model. A budget analysis indicated that approximately 13% of iodine-131 and 22% of cesium-137 were deposited over land in Japan, and the rest was deposited over the ocean or transported out of the model domain (700 × 700 km2). Radioactivity budgets are sensitive to temporal emission patterns. Accurate estimation of emissions to the air is important for estimation of the atmospheric behavior of radionuclides and their subsequent behavior in land water, soil, vegetation, and the ocean.

Contribution of global groundwater depletion since 1900 to sea‐level rise

Abstract: [1] Removal of water from terrestrial subsurface storage is a natural consequence of groundwater withdrawals, but global depletion is not well characterized. Cumulative groundwater depletion represents a transfer of mass from land to the oceans that contributes to sea-level rise. Depletion is directly calculated using calibrated groundwater models, analytical approaches, or volumetric budget analyses for multiple aquifer systems. Estimated global groundwater depletion during 1900–2008 totals ∼4,500 km3, equivalent to a sea-level rise of 12.6 mm (>6% of the total). Furthermore, the rate of groundwater depletion has increased markedly since about 1950, with maximum rates occurring during the most recent period (2000–2008), when it averaged ∼145 km3/yr (equivalent to 0.40 mm/yr of sea-level rise, or 13% of the reported rate of 3.1 mm/yr during this recent period).

Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures

Abstract: [1] Rising temperatures caused by climatic warming may cause poleward range shifts and/or expansions in species distribution Tropical reef corals (hereafter corals) are some of the world's most important species, being not only primary producers, but also habitat-forming species, and thus fundamental ecosystem modification is expected according to changes in their distribution Although most studies of climate change effects on corals have focused on temperature-induced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas We show the first large-scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where century-long measurements of in situ sea-surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s, whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year, which is far greater than that for other species Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral-reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress

Niño indices for two types of ENSO

Abstract: [1] El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which dominates variability on interannual timescale in the climate system, is known to exhibit various spatio-temporal characteristics. Recent studies show that in additional to a canonical El Nino with its major center of sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific cold-tongue region, a different type of El Nino with its major action center shifted to the warm-pool edge has emerged and become more common during the past two decades. Because the SST patterns of these two types of El Nino events are highly correlated, neither of the traditional Nino3 and Nino4 SST indices alone is effective in representing the new-type El Nino. Through a simple transformation of the Nino3 and Nino4 indices, we devised two new indices that separately identify the two types of ENSO events. Unlike the Nino3 and Nino4 indices, the two new indices are of little simultaneous correlation. The SST patterns associated with these new indices capture SST characteristics of the two types of ENSO. Their running lagged-correlations capture different ENSO-phase propagations and ENSO regime changes associated with the climate shift in 1976/77.

El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract: [1] This paper addresses the question of whether the increased occurrence of central Pacific (CP) versus Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ninos is consistent with greenhouse gas forced changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific as inferred from global climate change models. Our analysis uses high-quality satellite and in situ ocean data combined with wind data from atmospheric reanalyses for the past 31 years (1980–2010). We find changes in background conditions that are opposite to those expected from greenhouse gas forcing in climate models and opposite to what is expected if changes in the background state are mediating more frequent occurrences of CP El Ninos. A plausible interpretation of these results is that the character of El Nino over the past 31 years has varied naturally and that these variations projected onto changes in the background state because of the asymmetric spatial structures of CP and EP El Ninos.

Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers

Abstract: [1] Damage from flooding in the winter and fall seasons has been widespread in the United Kingdom (UK) and Western Europe over recent decades. Here we show that winter flood events in the UK are connected to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow ribbons along which a large flux of moisture is transported from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Combining river flow records with rainfall measurements, satellite data and model simulations, we demonstrate that ARs occur simultaneously with the 10 largest winter flood events since 1970 in a range of British river basins, suggesting that ARs are persistently critical in explaining extreme winter flooding in the UK. Understanding the physical processes that determine the persistence of AR events will be of importance in assessing the risk of future flooding over north-western Europe and other mid-latitude regions.

Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation

Abstract: [1] Recently, against the backdrop of current climate, several regional studies have investigated the applicability of the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to the scaling relationship between extreme precipitation intensity and surface air temperature. Nevertheless, the temperature relationship of the extreme precipitation intensity on a global scale is still unclear. We assess, for the first time, the global relationship between the extreme daily precipitation intensity and the daily surface air temperature using in-situ data. The extreme daily precipitation intensity increased monotonically with the daily surface air temperature at high latitudes and decreased monotonically in the tropics. Similarly, the extreme daily precipitation intensity at middle latitudes increased at low temperatures and decreased at high temperatures; this decrease could be largely attributed to the decrease in the wet-event duration. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is applicable to the increase in the extreme daily precipitation intensity in a limited number of regions. However, the potential applicability of the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling on sub-hourly timescale was observed, even in regions where the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling on daily timescale was not applicable. This implies the potential of warming to intensify extreme precipitation on sub-hourly timescales.

Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations

Abstract: Quantification of global land evapotranspiration (ET) has long been associated with large uncertainties due to the lack of reference observations Several recently developed products now provide the capacity to estimate ET at global scales These products, partly based on observational data, include satellite ]based products, land surface model (LSM) simulations, atmospheric reanalysis output, estimates based on empirical upscaling of eddycovariance flux measurements, and atmospheric water balance datasets The LandFlux-EVAL project aims to evaluate and compare these newly developed datasets Additionally, an evaluation of IPCC AR4 global climate model (GCM) simulations is presented, providing an assessment of their capacity to reproduce flux behavior relative to the observations ]based products Though differently constrained with observations, the analyzed reference datasets display similar large-scale ET patterns ET from the IPCC AR4 simulations was significantly smaller than that from the other products for India (up to 1 mm/d) and parts of eastern South America, and larger in the western USA, Australia and China The inter-product variance is lower across the IPCC AR4 simulations than across the reference datasets in several regions, which indicates that uncertainties may be underestimated in the IPCC AR4 models due to shared biases of these simulations

Residual CO2 imaged with X‐ray micro‐tomography

Abstract: [1] Carbon capture and storage (CCS), where CO2 is injected into geological formations, has been identified as an important way to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. While there are several aquifers worldwide into which CO2 has been injected, there is still uncertainty in terms of the long-term fate of the CO2. Simulation studies have proposed capillary trapping – where the CO2 is stranded as pore-space droplets surrounded by water – as a rapid way to secure safe storage. However, there has been no direct evidence of pore-scale trapping. We imaged trapped super-critical CO2 clusters in a sandstone at elevated temperatures and pressures, representative of storage conditions using computed micro-tomography (μ-CT) and measured the distribution of trapped cluster size. The clusters occupy 25% of the pore space. This work suggests that locally capillary trapping is an effective, safe storage mechanism in quartz-rich sandstones.

A reduced estimate of the strength of the ocean's biological carbon pump

Abstract: [1] A major term in the global carbon cycle is the ocean's biological carbon pump which is dominated by sinking of small organic particles from the surface ocean to its interior. Several different approaches to estimating the magnitude of the pump have been used, yielding a large range of estimates. Here, we use an alternative methodology, a thorium isotope tracer, that provides direct estimates of particulate organic carbon export. A large database of thorium-derived export measurements was compiled and extrapolated to the global scale by correlation with satellite sea surface temperature fields. Our estimates of export efficiency are significantly lower than those derived from the f-ratio, and we estimate global integrated carbon export as ∼5 GtC yr−1, lower than most current estimates. The lack of consensus amongst different methodologies on the strength of the biological carbon pump emphasises that our knowledge of a major planetary carbon flux remains incomplete.

Measurements of the capillary trapping of super-critical carbon dioxide in Berea sandstone

Abstract: [1] We measure primary drainage capillary pressure and the relationship between initial and residual non-wetting phase saturation for a supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2)-brine system in Berea sandstone. We use the semi-permeable disk (porous-plate) coreflood method. Brine and CO2 were equilibrated prior to injection to ensure immiscible displacement. A maximum CO2 saturation of 85% was measured for an applied capillary pressure of 296 kPa. After injection of brine the CO2 saturation dropped to 35%; this is less than the maximum trapped saturation of 48% measured in an equivalent n-decane (oil)-brine experiment. The dimensionless capillary pressure is the same to within experimental error for supercritical CO2-brine, n-decane-brine and a mercury-air system. CO2 is the non-wetting phase and significant quantities can be trapped by capillary forces. We discuss the implications for CO2 storage.

Fermi and betatron acceleration of suprathermal electrons behind dipolarization fronts

Abstract: Two dipolarization front (DF) structures observed by Cluster in the Earth midtail region (X(GSM) approximate to -15 R(E)), showing respectively the feature of Fermi and betatron acceleration of sup ...

Mapping permeability over the surface of the Earth

Abstract: [1] Permeability, the ease of fluid flow through porous rocks and soils, is a fundamental but often poorly quantified component in the analysis of regional-scale water fluxes Permeability is difficult to quantify because it varies over more than 13 orders of magnitude and is heterogeneous and dependent on flow direction Indeed, at the regional scale, maps of permeability only exist for soil to depths of 1–2 m Here we use an extensive compilation of results from hydrogeologic models to show that regional-scale (>5 km) permeability of consolidated and unconsolidated geologic units below soil horizons (hydrolithologies) can be characterized in a statistically meaningful way The representative permeabilities of these hydrolithologies are used to map the distribution of near-surface (on the order of 100 m depth) permeability globally and over North America The distribution of each hydrolithology is generally scale independent The near-surface mean permeability is of the order of ∼5 × 10−14 m2 The results provide the first global picture of near-surface permeability and will be of particular value for evaluating global water resources and modeling the influence of climate-surface-subsurface interactions on global climate change

Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade

Abstract: The variability of stratospheric aerosol loading between 1985 and 2010 is explored with measurements from SAGE II, CALIPSO, GOMOS/ENVISAT, and OSIRIS/Odin space-based instruments. We find that, following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, stratospheric aerosol levels increased by as much as two orders of magnitude and only reached "background levels" between 1998 and 2002. From 2002 onwards, a systematic increase has been reported by a number of investigators. Recently, the trend, based on ground-based lidar measurements, has been tentatively attributed to an increase of SO2 entering the stratosphere associated with coal burning in Southeast Asia. However, we demonstrate with these satellite measurements that the observed trend is mainly driven by a series of moderate but increasingly intense volcanic eruptions primarily at tropical latitudes. These events injected sulfur directly to altitudes between 18 and 20 km. The resulting aerosol particles are slowly lofted into the middle stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation and are eventually transported to higher latitudes.

Trends in Arctic sea ice drift and role of wind forcing: 1992–2009

Abstract: [1] We examine the spatial trends in Arctic sea ice drift speed from satellite data and the role of wind forcing for the winter months of October through May. Between 1992 and 2009, the spatially averaged trend in drift speed within the Arctic Basin is 10.6% ± 0.9%/decade, and ranges between −4% and 16%/decade depending on the location. The mean trend is dominated by the second half of the period. In fact, for the five years after a clear break point in March 2004, the average trend increased to 46% ± 5%/decade. Over the 1992–2009 period, averaged trends of wind speed from four atmospheric reanalyses are only 1% to 2%/decade. Regionally, positive trends in wind speed (of up to 9%/decade) are seen over a large fraction of the Central Arctic, where the trends in drift speeds are highest. Spatial correlations between the basin-wide trends in wind and drift speeds are moderate (between 0.40 and 0.52). Our results suggest that changes in wind speed explain a fraction of the observed increase in drift speeds in the Central Arctic but not over the entire basin. In other regions thinning of the ice cover is a more likely cause of the increase in ice drift speed.

Climate model genealogy

Abstract: [1] Climate change projections are often given as equally weighted averages across ensembles of climate models, despite the fact that the sampling of the underlying ensembles is unclear. We show that a hierarchical clustering of a metric of spatial and temporal variations of either surface temperature or precipitation in control simulations can capture many model relationships across different ensembles. Strong similarities are seen between models developed at the same institution, between models sharing versions of the same atmospheric component, and between successive versions of the same model. A perturbed parameter ensemble of a model appears separate from other structurally different models. The results provide insight into intermodel relationships, into how models evolve through successive generations, and suggest that assuming model independence in such ensembles of opportunity is not justified.