世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

This paper examines the short and long-run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. The counterfactual of the cases studied is assessed by constructing synthetic control groups, taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. It is found that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output, both in the short and long run. However, this result appears in two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters. Once these political changes are controlled for, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth. It is also found that smaller, but still very large natural disasters, have no discernible effect on output.

/pdf/catastrophic-natural-disasters-and-economic-growth-26logvoewq.pdf

Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth

A new empirical study of the relation between money, nominal income, prices, and real output in postwar quarterly U.S. data rejects virtually all of the conclusions reached by Families provide individuals with risk sharing opportunities which may not otherwise be available. Within the family there is a degree of trust and a level of information which alleviates three key problems in the provision of insurance by markets open to the general public, namely, moral hazard, adverse selection, and deception. The informational advantages of pooling risk within families must be set against the inability of families to provide complete insurance because of the small size of the risk pooling group. This paper demonstrates how families can provide insurance against uncertain dates of death. Death risk sharing family arrangements effectively constitute an incomplete annuities market. Our analysis indicates that these arrangements even in small families can substitute by more than70% for complete annuities. Given the adverse selection problem and transactions costs in public annuity markets, risk pooling in families may well be preferred to purchasing market annuities. In the absence of organized public markets in annuities, these risk sharing arrangements provide powerful economic incentives for marriage and family formation. The paper suggests that inter-family transfers need have nothing to do with altruistic feelings; rather, they may simply reflect risk sharing behavior of completely selfish family members.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)(This abstract was borrowed from another version of thi(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market

This paper reviews recent evidence on food intake and nutrition in India. It attempts to make sense of various puzzles, particularly the decline of average calorie intake during the last 25 years. This decline has occurred across the distribution of real per capita expenditure, in spite of increases in real income and no long-term increase in the relative price of food. One hypothesis is that calorie requirements have declined due to lower levels of physical activity or improvements in the health environment. If correct, this does not imply that there are no calorie deficits in the Indian population – nothing could be further from the truth. These deficits are reflected in some of the worst anthropometric indicators in the world, and the sluggish rate of improvement of these indicators is of major concern. Yet recent trends remain confused and there is an urgent need for better nutrition monitoring.

/pdf/food-and-nutrition-in-india-facts-and-interpretations-1trgy4p4w8.pdf

Food and nutrition in India: facts and interpretations.

Panel Data in Econometrics

https://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/div/wwheworkshop/soest.pdf

A structural labour supply model with flexible preferences

We analyze wage differentials mobility between the formal and informal sector in urban Mexico, using panel data on five quarters drawn from Mexico's Urban Employment Survey. We develop a dynamic random effects panel data model. It consists of two separate wage equations for the two sectors and a multinomial logit part explaining the labor market state, in which wages are included as explanatory variables. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The estimates show that wage differentials increase with education level. The probability of formal sector employment strongly increases with the wage differential. Simulated transition probabilities show that for male workers, the choice between formal and informal sector is driven by wage differentials and unobserved heterogeneity, while true state dependence is much less important. For women, nonparticipation is the most common labor market state, and true state dependence plays a much larger role.

Wage Differentials and Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/21186/1/dp329.pdf

Wage differentials and mobility in the urban labour market: a panel data analysis for Mexico

We analyze mobility in urban Mexico between three labor market states: working in the formal sector, working in the informal sector, and not working. A dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects is used, explaining the labor market state of each individual during each time period. The data are drawn from Mexico’s Urban Employment Survey, a quarterly household survey for urban Mexico. While some of the descriptive statistics suggest that informal sector jobs are inferior to formal sector jobs, formal tests cannot reject the null hypothesis of equal transition rates between formal and informal sector jobs for homogeneous groups of workers. Looking at entry and exit into and out of nonemployment, we find that transitions from formal sector jobs to nonemployment were less likely than transitions from informal sector jobs to nonemployment in 1992 but not in 1999, suggesting that employment protection in the formal sector has been reduced.

/pdf/mobility-in-the-urban-labor-market-a-panel-data-analysis-for-1zzqoegyea.pdf

Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

This paper investigates labour supply of married women in Mexico City. A static neoclassical structural mode is used. We assume that each woman chooses her labour supply and corresponding income so that her utility is maximized, conditional upon her husband's labour supply and earnings. We use a direct translog specification, and include family composition variables as taste shifters. Also taken into account are fixed costs of working, random preferences, and correlation between error terms in wage equations and random preference terms. The wage equation and the labour supply model are estimated jointly by smooth simulated maximum likelihood. We find income elasticities of labour supply of about -0.17, and wage elasticities of about 0.87. The latter is substantially underestimated if the correlation between wage equation errors and random preference terms is not taken into account. We find evidence that the presence of other adult females reduces the negative impact of young children on the mothers' labour supply.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=252022

Xiaodong Gong

Papers

A structural labour supply model with flexible preferences

Wage Differentials and Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

Wage differentials and mobility in the urban labour market: a panel data analysis for Mexico

Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

Family Structure and Female Labour Supply in Mexico City