世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

This article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries, with particular reference to sub‐Saharan Africa. Livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living. The determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty, income distribution, farm output and gender are examined. Some policy inferences are summarised. The conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to, and expansion of opportunities for, diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards.

Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification

The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report

ContextEstimation of mortality risk in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated
heart failure (ADHF) may help clinicians guide care.ObjectiveTo develop a practical user-friendly bedside tool for risk stratification
for patients hospitalized with ADHF.Design, Setting, and PatientsThe Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) of
patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of ADHF in 263 hospitals in
the United States was queried with analysis of patient data to develop a risk
stratification model. The first 33 046 hospitalizations (derivation cohort;
October 2001-February 2003) were analyzed to develop the model and then the
validity of the model was prospectively tested using data from 32 229 subsequent
hospitalizations (validation cohort; March-July 2003). Patients had a mean
age of 72.5 years and 52% were female.Main Outcome MeasureVariables predicting mortality in ADHF.ResultsWhen the derivation and validation cohorts are combined, 37 772 (58%)
of 65 275 patient-records had coronary artery disease. Of a combined cohort
consisting of 52 164 patient-records, 23 910 (46%) had preserved left ventricular
systolic function. In-hospital mortality was similar in the derivation (4.2%)
and validation (4.0%) cohorts. Recursive partitioning of the derivation cohort
for 39 variables indicated that the best single predictor for mortality was
high admission levels of blood urea nitrogen (≥43 mg/dL [15.35 mmol/L])
followed by low admission systolic blood pressure (<115 mm Hg) and then
by high levels of serum creatinine (≥2.75 mg/dL [243.1 μmol/L]). A simple
risk tree identified patient groups with mortality ranging from 2.1% to 21.9%.
The odds ratio for mortality between patients identified as high and low risk
was 12.9 (95% confidence interval, 10.4-15.9) and similar results were seen
when this risk stratification was applied prospectively to the validation
cohort.ConclusionsThese results suggest that ADHF patients at low, intermediate, and high
risk for in-hospital mortality can be easily identified using vital sign and
laboratory data obtained on hospital admission. The ADHERE risk tree provides
clinicians with a validated, practical bedside tool for mortality risk stratification.

/pdf/risk-stratification-for-in-hospital-mortality-in-acutely-8u7m3hc5p9.pdf

Risk Stratification for In-Hospital Mortality in Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure: Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

Household food security is an important measure of well-being. Although it may not encapsulate all dimensions of poverty, the inability of households to obtain access to enough food for an active, healthy life is surely an important component of their poverty. Accordingly, devising an appropriate measure of food security outcomes is useful in order to identify the food insecure, assess the severity of their food shortfall, characterize the nature of their insecurity (for example, seasonal versus chronic), predict who is most at risk of future hunger, monitor changes in circumstances, and assess the impact of interventions. However, obtaining detailed data on food security status—such as 24- hour recall data on caloric intakes—can be time consuming and expensive and require a high level of technical skill both in data collection and analysis. This paper examines whether an alternative indicator, dietary diversity, defined as the number of unique foods consumed over a given period of time, provides information on household food security. It draws on data from 10 countries (India, the Philippines, Mozambique, Mexico, Bangladesh, Egypt, Mali, Malawi, Ghana, and Kenya) that encompass both poor and middle-income countries, rural and urban sectors, data collected in different seasons, and data on calories acquisition obtained using two different methods. ....[D]ietary diversity would appear to show promise as a means of measuring food security and monitoring changes and impact, particularly when resources available for such measurement are scarce.

https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACQ758.pdf

Dietary diversity as a food security indicator

Famine in Ethiopia: Policy Implications of Coping Failure at National and Household Levels

–– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – The Challenge of hunger: Taming PriCe SPikeS and exCeSSive food PriCe vola TiliTy

https://www.developmenteducation.ie/media/documents/global_hunger_index_report_2010.pdf

Global HunGer Index

The 2014 Global Hunger Index (GHI) report—the ninth in an annual series—presents a multidimensional measure of national, regional, and global hunger. It shows that the world has made progress in reducing hunger since 1990, but still has far to go, with levels of hunger remaining “alarming” or “extremely alarming” in 16 countries. This year’s report focuses on a critical aspect of hunger that is often overlooked: hidden hunger. Also known as micronutrient deficiency, hidden hunger affects more than an estimated 2 billion people globally. The repercussions of these vitamin and mineral deficiencies are both serious and long-lasting. Where hidden hunger has taken root, it not only prevents people from surviving and thriving as productive members of society, it also holds countries back in a cycle of poor nutrition, poor health, lost productivity, persistent poverty, and reduced economic growth.

Yisehac Yohannes

Papers

Dietary diversity as a food security indicator

Famine in Ethiopia: Policy Implications of Coping Failure at National and Household Levels

Global HunGer Index

Synopsis of 2014 Global hunger index: The challenge of hidden hunger:

Global Hunger Index: The Challenge of Hunger 2008