Considering the problem of risk diffusion in increasingly complex supply chain networks, we propose using the supply chain risk diffusion model, under the hypernetwork vision, to study the influence of certain factors on risk diffusion, including the herd mentality, self-vigilance, talent recruitment, and enterprise management. First of all, the state transition probability tree is constructed to represent the state transition of each enterprise, then the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA) is used to analyze the scale of risk spread, and the diffusion threshold of risk is discussed. We find that the herd mentality, self-vigilance, talent recruitment, and enterprise management will effectively curb the spread of risks. Directly recruiting talents and strengthening enterprise management is more effective than increasing vigilance. This study helps professionals to understand the mechanism of risk diffusion, and it provides effective suggestions on how to suppress risk diffusion in the real world.

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Supply Chain Risk Diffusion Model Considering Multi-Factor Influences under Hypernetwork Vision

Dynamic risk analysis of accidents chain and system protection strategy based on complex network and node structure importance

Supply chain risk management is an important topic in supply chain management. The authors investigate the rules and characteristics of risk propagation in complex supply networks. Aiming at the characteristics of complex supply chain with complex structure and large risk consequences, considering the different impact capabilities and different anti-risk capabilities of each enterprise node, this paper proposes a SITR (susceptible-infected-temporarily removed-completely removed) risk propagation model based on weighted networks. After the dynamic analysis of the proposed model, numerical simulation is performed, and a supply chain risk control strategy is proposed according to the simulation results. The research shows that the enterprise's complete recovery rate and risk infection rate have a greater impact on the risk propagation in the supply chain network. Enterprises should increase their awareness of risk management and control, improve their complete recovery rate, and reduce their risk of infection.

Yuhuai Zhang

Papers

Risk Propagation Mechanism Research Based on SITR Model of Complex Supply Networks