Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques – A review

The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability. This work presents two contributions. First we review the topic of bankruptcy prediction, with emphasis on neural-network (NN) models. Second, we develop an NN bankruptcy prediction model. Inspired by one of the traditional credit risk models developed by Merton (1974), we propose novel indicators for the NN system. We show that the use of these indicators in addition to traditional financial ratio indicators provides a significant improvement in the (out-of-sample) prediction accuracy (from 81.46% to 85.5% for a three-year-ahead forecast).

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Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: A survey and new results

Two parameters, C and σ, must be carefully predetermined in establishing an efficient support vector machine (SVM) model. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a genetic-based SVM (GA-SVM) model that can automatically determine the optimal parameters, C and σ, of SVM with the highest predictive accuracy and generalization ability simultaneously. This paper pioneered on employing a real-valued genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize the parameters of SVM for predicting bankruptcy. Additionally, the proposed GA-SVM model was tested on the prediction of financial crisis in Taiwan to compare the accuracy of the proposed GA-SVM model with that of other models in multivariate statistics (DA, logit, and probit) and artificial intelligence (NN and SVM). Experimental results show that the GA-SVM model performs the best predictive accuracy, implying that integrating the RGA with traditional SVM model is very successful.

https://ir.nctu.edu.tw:443/bitstream/11536/11173/1/000242979100014.pdf

A real-valued genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of support vector machine for predicting bankruptcy

Financial distress precedes bankruptcy. Most financial distress models actually rely on bankruptcy data, which is easier to obtain. We obtained a dataset of financially distressed but not yet bankrupt companies supplying a major auto manufacturer. An early warning model successfully discriminated between these distressed companies and a second group of similar but healthy companies. Previous researchers argue the matched-sample design, on which some earlier models were built, causes bias. To test for bias, the dataset was partitioned into smaller samples that approach equal groupings. We statistically confirm the presence of a bias and describe its impact on estimated classification rates.

Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias

One of the most well-known bankruptcy prediction models was developed by Altman [1968] using multivariate discriminant analysis. Since Altman's model, a multitude of bankruptcy prediction models have flooded the literature. The primary goal of this paper is to summarize and analyze existing research on bankruptcy prediction studies in order to facilitate more productive future research in this area. This paper traces the literature on bankruptcy prediction from the 1930's, when studies focused on the use of simple ratio analysis to predict future bankruptcy, to present. The authors discuss how bankruptcy prediction studies have evolved, highlighting the different methods, number and variety of factors, and specific uses of models. Analysis of 165 bankruptcy prediction studies published from 1965 to present reveals trends in model development. For example, discriminant analysis was the primary method used to develop models in the 1960's and 1970's. Investigation of model type by decade shows that the primary method began to shift to logit analysis and neural networks in the 1980's and 1990's. The number of factors utilized in models is also analyzed by decade, showing that the average has varied over time but remains around 10 overall. Analysis of accuracy of the models suggests that multivariate discriminant analysis and neural networks are the most promising methods for bankruptcy prediction models. The findings also suggest that higher model accuracy is not guaranteed with a greater number of factors. Some models with two factors are just as capable of accurate prediction as models with 21 factors.

Z.R. Yang

Papers

Probabilistic Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction