다중혈관 관상동맥 환자에서 y-문합을 이용하여 양쪽 내흉동맥만을 사용한 우회술의 조기 성적

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

How has Japan become a major economic power, a world leader in the automotive and electronics industries? What is the secret of their success? The consensus has been that, though the Japanese are not particularly innovative, they are exceptionally skilful at imitation, at improving products that already exist. But now two leading Japanese business experts, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hiro Takeuchi, turn this conventional wisdom on its head: Japanese firms are successful, they contend, precisely because they are innovative, because they create new knowledge and use it to produce successful products and technologies. Examining case studies drawn from such firms as Honda, Canon, Matsushita, NEC, 3M, GE, and the U.S. Marines, this book reveals how Japanese companies translate tacit to explicit knowledge and use it to produce new processes, products, and services.

The knowledge-creating company : how Japanese companies create the dynamics of innovation

How have Japanese companies become world leaders in the automotive and electronics industries, among others? What is the secret of their success? Two leading Japanese business experts, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hirotaka Takeuchi, are the first to tie the success of Japanese companies to their ability to create new knowledge and use it to produce successful products and technologies. In The Knowledge-Creating Company, Nonaka and Takeuchi provide an inside look at how Japanese companies go about creating this new knowledge organizationally. The authors point out that there are two types of knowledge: explicit knowledge, contained in manuals and procedures, and tacit knowledge, learned only by experience, and communicated only indirectly, through metaphor and analogy. U.S. managers focus on explicit knowledge. The Japanese, on the other hand, focus on tacit knowledge. And this, the authors argue, is the key to their success--the Japanese have learned how to transform tacit into explicit knowledge. To explain how this is done--and illuminate Japanese business practices as they do so--the authors range from Greek philosophy to Zen Buddhism, from classical economists to modern management gurus, illustrating the theory of organizational knowledge creation with case studies drawn from such firms as Honda, Canon, Matsushita, NEC, Nissan, 3M, GE, and even the U.S. Marines. For instance, using Matsushita's development of the Home Bakery (the world's first fully automated bread-baking machine for home use), they show how tacit knowledge can be converted to explicit knowledge: when the designers couldn't perfect the dough kneading mechanism, a software programmer apprenticed herself withthe master baker at Osaka International Hotel, gained a tacit understanding of kneading, and then conveyed this information to the engineers. In addition, the authors show that, to create knowledge, the best management style is neither top-down nor bottom-up, but rather what they call "middle-up-down," in which the middle managers form a bridge between the ideals of top management and the chaotic realities of the frontline. As we make the turn into the 21st century, a new society is emerging. Peter Drucker calls it the "knowledge society," one that is drastically different from the "industrial society," and one in which acquiring and applying knowledge will become key competitive factors. Nonaka and Takeuchi go a step further, arguing that creating knowledge will become the key to sustaining a competitive advantage in the future. Because the competitive environment and customer preferences changes constantly, knowledge perishes quickly. With The Knowledge-Creating Company, managers have at their fingertips years of insight from Japanese firms that reveal how to create knowledge continuously, and how to exploit it to make successful new products, services, and systems.

The knowledge-creating company

Organizational learning II: Theory, method and practice

Learning Analytics focuses on the collection and analysis of learners' data to improve their learning experience by providing informed guidance and to optimise learning materials. To support the research in this area we have developed a dataset, containing data from courses presented at the Open University (OU). What makes the dataset unique is the fact that it contains demographic data together with aggregated clickstream data of students' interactions in the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). This enables the analysis of student behaviour, represented by their actions. The dataset contains the information about 22 courses, 32,593 students, their assessment results, and logs of their interactions with the VLE represented by daily summaries of student clicks (10,655,280 entries). The dataset is freely available at https://analyse.kmi.open.ac.uk/open_dataset under a CC-BY 4.0 license.

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Open University Learning Analytics dataset.

One of the key interests for learning analytics is how it can be used to improve retention. This paper focuses on work conducted at the Open University (OU) into predicting students who are at risk of failing their module. The Open University is one of the worlds largest distance learning institutions. Since tutors do not interact face to face with students, it can be difficult for tutors to identify and respond to students who are struggling in time to try to resolve the difficulty. Predictive models have been developed and tested using historic Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) activity data combined with other data sources, for three OU modules. This has revealed that it is possible to predict student failure by looking for changes in user's activity in the VLE, when compared against their own previous behaviour, or that of students who can be categorised as having similar learning behaviour. More focused analysis of these modules applying the GUHA (General Unary Hypothesis Automaton) method of data analysis has also yielded some early promising results for creating accurate hypothesis about students who fail.

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Improving retention: predicting at-risk students by analysing clicking behaviour in a virtual learning environment

The OU Analyse project aims at providing early prediction of ‘at-risk’ students based on their demographic data and their interaction with Virtual Learning Environment. Four predictive models have been constructed from legacy data using machine learning methods. In Spring 2014 the approach was piloted and evaluated on two introductory university courses with about 1500 and 3000 students, respectively. Since October 2014 the predictions have been extended to include 10+ courses of different level. The OU Analyse dashboard has been implemented, for presenting predictions and providing a course overview and a view of individual students.

OU Analyse: analysing at-risk students at The Open University

By collecting longitudinal learner and learning data from a range of resources, predictive learning analytics (PLA) are used to identify learners who may not complete a course, typically described as being at risk. Mixed effects are observed as to how teachers perceive, use, and interpret PLA data, necessitating further research in this direction. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether providing teachers in a distance learning higher education institution with PLA data predicts students’ performance and empowers teachers to identify and assist students at risk. Using principles of Technology Acceptance and Academic Resistance models, a university-wide, multi-methods study with 59 teachers, nine courses, and 1325 students revealed that teachers can positively affect students’ performance when engaged with PLA. Follow-up semi-structured interviews illuminated teachers’ actual uses of the predictive data and revealed its impact on teaching practices and intervention strategies to support students at risk.

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A large-scale implementation of predictive learning analytics in higher education: the teachers’ role and perspective

This paper focuses on the problem of identifying students, who are at risk of failing their course. The presented method proposes a solution in the absence of data from previous courses, which are usually used for training machine learning models. This situation typically occurs in new courses. We present the concept of a "self-learner" that builds the machine learning models from the data generated during the current course. The approach utilises information about already submitted assessments, which introduces the problem of imbalanced data for training and testing the classification models. There are three main contributions of this paper: (1) the concept of training the models for identifying at-risk students using data from the current course, (2) specifying the problem as a classification task, and (3) tackling the challenge of imbalanced data, which appears both in training and testing data. The results show the comparison with the traditional approach of learning the models from the legacy course data, validating the proposed concept.

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Zdenek Zdrahal

Papers

Open University Learning Analytics dataset.

Improving retention: predicting at-risk students by analysing clicking behaviour in a virtual learning environment

OU Analyse: analysing at-risk students at The Open University

A large-scale implementation of predictive learning analytics in higher education: the teachers’ role and perspective

Ouroboros: early identification of at-risk students without models based on legacy data