Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS)

About: Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) is a based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Life-cycle assessment & Sustainability. The organization has 167 authors who have published 318 publications receiving 6738 citations.

Long-term forecasting with prediction markets - a field experiment on applicability and expert confidence

Abstract: While prediction markets have become increasingly popular to forecast the near-term future, the literature provides little evidence on how they perform for long-term problems. For assessing the long-term, decision-makers traditionally rely on experts, although empirical research disputes the value of expert advice. Reporting on findings from a field experiment in which we implemented two prediction markets in parallel to a Delphi study, this paper addresses two questions. First, we analyze the applicability of prediction markets for long-term problems whose outcome cannot be judged for a long time. Second, by comparing trading behavior of an expert and a student market, we analyze whether there is evidence that supports the assumption that experts possess superior knowledge. Our results show that prediction markets provide similar results as the well-established Delphi method. We conclude that prediction markets appear to be applicable for long-term forecasting. Furthermore, we observe differences in the confidence of experts and non-experts. Our findings indicate that, in contrast to students, experts reveal their information well-considered based on what they think they know. Finally, we discuss how such analyses of market participants’ confidence provide valuable information to decision-makers and may be used to improve on traditional forecasting methods.

Contacting the brain--aspects of a technology assessment of neural implants.

Abstract: The public interest in neural implants has grown considerably in recent years. Progress within related research areas in combination with increasing – albeit overly optimistic and indiscriminate – mass media coverage have led to the impression that the possibilities of neural prosthetics have grown enormously. But a closer look reveals that the reasons for the intensified interest are varied and cannot be attributed to technical progress alone. Some neural prostheses that have been under development for many years have not left the clinical development phase despite intensive research activities. Other implants, like cardiac pacemakers and cochlea implants, are mature products that have already been implanted in a large number of patients. From the public perspective and in media reports, progress in the development of neural implants is associated with new achievements in other fields of neuroscience. Communications on new applications of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) may suggest that a number of cognitive functions are now easily accessible with technological means. The fact that the interpretation of the results of fMRI studies depends on many conditions and is partly disputed also within the scientific community has been discussed in many publications but only very limited, in the general media. Besides this, research results and implementations in the area of electroencephalography and magnetoencephalography have sparked further debate on the question of free will, on determinism and indeterminism, and have attracted a large media response. The purpose of this paper is to discuss some societal and ethical aspects of neural implants from a technology assessment perspective. Technology assessment (TA) aims at providing knowledge about impacts and consequences of (new) technologies as well as about political and societal ways of dealing with them. It reflects about implementation conditions of technology and potential technology conflicts. Over the last years, neural implants became a subject for TA since they have gained a higher attention in both the political arena and the general public. Especially the ethical and social implications of technologies that electrically stimulate the brain and the possibilities of changing personality traits, changing moods, and perhaps enhancing human cognitive capabilities are central issues in related discussions. In this paper, we want to briefly summarize some of the key arguments as well as topics for future discussion and research.

Conceptual Questions and Challenges Associated with the Traditional Risk Assessment Paradigm for Nanomaterials

Abstract: Risk assessment is an evidence-based analytical framework used to evaluate research findings related to environmental and public health decision-making. Different routines have been adopted for assessing the potential risks posed by substances and products to human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a hazard-driven approach, based on a monocausal toxicological perspective. Questions have been raised about the applicability of the general chemical risk assessment approach in the specific case of nanomaterials. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that the current standard methods are in principle suitable, but point out that experimental aspects and practical guidelines need specific adaptations. Beyond this laboratory level, risk assessment of nanomaterials also faces a number of substantive and procedural limitations, which are intrinsically attributed to the general orthodoxy of the risk assessment concept. Moreover, the developed formalism used to organize scientific knowledge is closely interlinked with the underlying governance design and the mode of interaction between the two spheres of ‘science’ and ‘decisions’. This contribution will provide a closer look at the evolution of different institutional settings for risk assessment in the context of decision-making. Improved risk governance frameworks with different narratives, process designs and procedural elements will be compared. The question of a general principle of enhanced organization of risk assessment will be discussed taking account of the barriers of substantive and procedural limitations in the special case of nanomaterials.

Exploratory Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis of Utility‐scale Battery Storage Technologies for Multiple Grid Services based on Life Cycle Approaches

Abstract: Herein, a multicriteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) of eight different utilityscale battery storage technologies for four different application areas, involving 72 relevant stakeholders from industry and academia for criteria selection and weighting, is presented. The assessment is conducted for economic, environmental, technological, and social criteria using a combination of the analytic hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution. It includes a full life-cycle costing and life-cycle assessment using current data. Indicative rankings show that most lithium-ion batteries can be recommended for all application areas. Lead-acid batteries achieve rather low scores depending on the viewed application, but including a recycling scenario for this technology might lead to significant changes in final scores and rankings. This is also true for the redox flow battery. Furthermore, the weights provided by the stakeholders are very dispersing, leading to a low consensus about the relevance of the used criteria. In particular, social criteria are not well differentiated in the current state and do not add significant distinguishing features between different battery technologies.

Integrated water, waste and energy management systems – A case study from Curauma, Chile

Abstract: The demand for energy and water by urban populations will increase in the next few decades, mainly due to migration of people. Enhanced living standards will also increase the demand for both resources. As both energy supply and water are limited, efficient use is a sine qua non for any future development of cities. This study elaborates the resource and environmental impacts of implementing an integrated water, waste and energy management system, using the medium-sized but rapidly growing settlement of Curauma, Chile, as a case study. The Integrated System is designed by separating wastewater at the source and mixing blackwater with organic municipal solid waste to generate electricity and heat by fermentation. By recycling greywater the demand for drinking water can be reduced. The analysed Integrated System could raise the share of renewables in the energy mix up to by 19% (electricity) and 51% (heat), and save fresh water resources by 30%. The depletion potential of the Integrated System regarding water, fossil and metal resources is notably lower (up to 52%) compared to the Conventional System. The same is true with respect to Climate Change, Freshwater Ecotoxicity, Freshwater Eutrophication and Human Toxicity: up to 45%. The impacts of the Integrated System related to Terrestrial Acidification are up to 174% higher due to emissions in the anaerobic digestion process, and heat and power generation with biogas.