Showing papers by "Joint Global Change Research Institute published in 2005"

Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States

Abstract: The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socio-economic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed.

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Abstract: This special issue of Climatic Change describes an effort to improve methodology for integrated assessment of impacts and consequences of climatic change. Highlights of the seven foregoing Parts (papers) that constitute this special issue are summarized here. The methodology developed involves construction of scenarios of climate change that are used to drive individual sectoral models for simulating impacts on crop production, irrigation demand, water supply and change in productivity and geography of unmanaged ecosystems. Economic impacts of the changes predicted by integrating the results of the several sectoral simulation models are calculated through an agricultural land-use model. While these analyses were conducted for the conterminous United States alone, their global implications are also considered in this summary as is the need for further improvements in integrated assessment methodology.

Strength Properties and Organic Carbon of Soils in the North Appalachian Region

Abstract: Soil strength influenced by management and soil properties controls plant growth, root development, and soil-moisture relations. The impact of textural and structural parameters on soil strength is moderated by soil organic C (SOC) concentration. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to assess differences in soil strength and SOC concentration in watersheds under long-term (>15 yr) management practices in the North Appalachian region on a predominantly Typic Hapludults on undulating slopes (>6% slope). Seven watersheds without field replication under moldboard plow (MP), chisel plow, disk with beef cattle manure (DiskM), no-till with beef cattle manure (NTm), no-till with no beef cattle manure (NTnm), pasture, and forest were studied. Cone index (CI), shear strength, bulk density (b), volumetric moisture content (v), and SOC concentration were determined at the summit, backslope, and footslope landscape positions at the 0- to 10-, 10- to 20-, and 20- to 30-cm depths. The SOC concentration was slightly higher at the footslope than at the summit position in the cultivated watersheds. The b was lower at the footslope than at the summit in NTm (1.22 vs. 1.42 Mg m{sup -3}) and chisel (1.34 vs. 1.47 Mg m{sup -3}) treatments. Forest had the lowest CI (0.19 MPa), shearmore » strength (6.11 kPa), and b (0.93 Mg m{sup -3}) and the highest SOC concentration (62.7 g kg{sup -1}), whereas MP had the highest CI (0.67 MPa), shear strength (25.5 kPa), b (1.44 Mg m{sup -3}), and the lowest SOC concentration (13.6 g kg{sup -1}) in the 0- to 10-cm depth (P 0.42; P < 0.01). Results show that landscape positions had small effect, but management, particularly manuring, had large and significant effects on soil strength and SOC concentration.« less

Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Abstract: The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.

- A CO 2 -storage supply curve for North America and its implications for the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage systems

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter presents the results that indicate a large and variably distributed North American storage capacity of at least 3,800 gigatones of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), with deep saline formations accounting for the majority of this capacity. A geospatial and techno-economic database of 2,082 anthropogenic CO2 point sources in North America, each with annual emissions greater than 100,000 tones of CO2, was also refined. By computing a series of pairwise cost-minimizing decisions for these CO2 sources and potential geological-storage reservoirs, a CO2-storage cost curve for North America was calculated that includes the cost of transporting CO2 from the plant gate to a selected storage reservoir, the cost of injecting it into the underground formation, and any offsetting revenue associated with resulting enhanced hydrocarbon recovery, yielding a classic, positively sloping supply curve. Sensitivities examined for this CO2-storage cost curve focus on: high/low oil and gas prices; the maximum allowed distance between source and reservoir; and, for storage in value-added reservoirs, the infrastructure costs associated with CO2-driven hydrocarbon recovery.

Model of Risk of Cortical Cataract in the US Population with Exposure to Increased Ultraviolet Radiation due to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

Abstract: The authors modeled the possible consequences for US cataract incidence of increases in ultraviolet B radiation due to ozone depletion. Data on the dose-response relation between ocular exposure to ultraviolet B radiation and cortical cataract were derived from a population-based study (the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Project, Salisbury, Maryland) in which extensive data on cataract and ultraviolet radiation were collected in persons aged 65-84 years. Exposure estimates for the US population were derived using estimated ultraviolet radiation fluxes as a function of wavelength. US Census data were used to obtain the age, ethnicity, and sex distribution of the population. Predicted probabilities of cataract were derived from the age-, sex-, and ethnicity-specific ocular ultraviolet exposure data and were modeled under conditions of 5-20% ozone depletion. The analysis indicated that by 2050, the prevalence of cortical cataract will increase above expected levels by 1.3-6.9%. The authors estimate that with 5-20% ozone depletion, there will be 167,000-830,000 additional cases of cortical cataract by 2050. Because of the high prevalence of cataract in older persons, at a 2003 cost of 3,370 dollars per cataract operation, this increase could represent an excess cost of 563 million dollars to 2.8 billion dollars.

A first-order global geological CO2-storage potential supply curve and its application in a global integrated assessment model

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter illustrates that geological storage of anthropogenic point-source carbon dioxide (CO2) is increasingly viewed as an important strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, which has the potential to be deployed globally in many different regions. It focuses on the cost of capturing CO2, with the implicit assumption that storage options would be relatively cheap, plentiful, and located in close proximity to future CO2 point sources. It provides an initial examination of the consequence of regionally disaggregated demand for, and supply of, CO2-storage reservoirs within the context of a globally disaggregated, long-term analysis of both the geology and economics of capture and storage (CCS). It is suggested that some regions see their ability to deploy CCS systems constrained by a lack of quality target reservoirs relative to major sources in that region. Other regions appear to have sufficient storage capacity to easily carry them through the 21st century. It also examines the degree to which the relative abundance of CCS opportunities in a region influences the adoption of other emissions-mitigation technologies. This chapter confirms that CCS is an important potential response to climate change throughout the 21st century and a technology that can help control the cost of addressing climate change.

Mechanical Properties and Organic Carbon of Soil Aggregates in the Northern Appalachians

Abstract: gregate formation (Horn, 1990; Zhang, 1994). Understanding of mechanical properties of aggregates is cruAggregate properties determine the macroscale structural condicial to explain the macroscale functions of soil for plant tion of the soil. Understanding of impacts of no-till and traditional growth (DeFreitas et al., 1996). agricultural practices on the mechanical properties of aggregates is fundamental to soil management. This study assessed the tensile One of the most useful mechanical properties of agstrength (TS), bulk density (agg), soil moisture retention (SMR), and gregates is TS (Dexter and Kroesbergen, 1985; Rahimi soil organic C (SOC) concentration of soil aggregates and determined et al., 2000). The TS refers to the force required to the interrelationships among aggregate properties under long-term break an aggregate and is a very sensitive indicator moldboard plow (MP), chisel plow (CP), disk with beef cattle manure of the structural stability of the whole soil (Watts and (DM), no-till with beef cattle manure (NTM), no-till without beef Dexter, 1998). Soils with high aggregate TS offer higher cattle manure (NT), pasture, and forest systems in the North Appala- resistance to mechanical disturbance (Perfect and Kay, chian region. Properties were determined on 1- to 8-mm aggregates 1994). The TS is determined on air-dry (Munkholm from 0- to 30-cm soil depth. The TS and SMR (0 to 333 kPa) in

Biophysical characterization and management effects on semiarid rangeland observed from Landsat ETM+ data

Abstract: Semiarid rangelands are very sensitive to global climatic change; studies of their biophysical attributes are crucial to understanding the dynamics of rangeland ecosystems under human disturbance. In the Santa Rita Experimental Range, AZ, the vegetation has changed considerably, and there have been many management activities applied. This study calculates seven surface variables: the enhanced vegetation index, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface albedos (total shortwave, visible, and near-infrared), leaf area index (LAI), and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) absorbed by green vegetation from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) data. Comparison with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer vegetation index and albedo products indicates they agree well with our estimates from ETM+, while their LAI and FPAR are larger than from ETM+. Human disturbance has significantly changed the cover types and biophysical conditions. Statistical tests indicate that surface albedos increased and FPAR decreased following tree-cutting disturbances. The recovery will require more than 67 years and is about 50% complete within 40 years at the higher elevation. Grass cover, vegetation indexes, albedos, and LAI recovered from cutting faster at the higher elevation. Woody plants, vegetation indexes, and LAI have recovered to their original characteristics after 65 years at the lower elevation. More studies are needed to examine the spectral characteristics of different ground components.

Baseload and peaking economics and the resulting adoption of a carbon dioxide capture-and-storage system for electric power plants

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter explores the comparative economics of CCS systems on both existing and new coal- and gas-fired electric power plants, analyzing the response to a set of hypothetical future CO2-emissions constraints. The chapter analyzes these effects using the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement (ECAR) region as an illustration. Using an electricity capacity expansion and dispatch model developed at Battelle, it quantifies the economic decisions and examine the resulting mix of coal- and gas-fired power plants with and without CCS, the economic operation of these plants, and the impacts on the cost of generating electricity in both off-peak and peak hours of electrical load. It also explores how CO2-emissions intensity changes across the electricity load profile from baseload to intermediate and peaking capacity over the set of CO2-emissions constraints.

Income and Pollutant Emissions in the ObjECTS MiniCAM Model

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of the relationship between income and pollutant emission controls as parameterized in the ObjECTS MiniCAM integrated assessment model. Future scenarios for energy-related emissions of nitrous oxide (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are presented along with the methodology used to parameterize this relationship. We use a “pseudo-Kuznets” approach where the level of emission control is assumed to vary with per-capita income. No explicit assumption is, therefore, made about the relationship between income and emissions — emissions are the result of driving forces, such as economic activity level, and energy combustion technology in addition to emission controls. Emission projections depend both on the assumptions for when emissions controls are implemented and the stringency of those controls. We suggest that historical analysis of the relationship between income and emission controls might be particularly useful in informing the selection of parameters that control when emission controls are implemented. Historical analysis is likely to be less helpful in informing the selection of parameters for the future levels of control, however, particularly at future times when parameter values are well outside the range of historical experience.

Who's talking? What are the issues? The media's portrayal of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration in the United States

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter focuses on carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) issues raised by the media. The media research was conducted as part of the Ohio River Valley CO2 Storage Project. The results helped shape the project's outreach plan that includes communication with workers and residents at the project site, state officials, and representatives of national environmental organizations. Among issues or concerns raised, the most frequently raised was the need to supplement research on breakthrough technologies like CCS with additional policy measures such as tax incentives and mandatory emissions caps. As a parallel to the positive point about CCS being a valuable component of a larger carbon management portfolio of options, there was concern expressed in some articles that funding for carbon capture and geologic sequestration might come at the expense of support for other emissions mitigation technologies such as renewable energy. Another frequent concern was the permanence of sequestered carbon. A number of other environmental uncertainties were raised, both of a specific and general nature, about the use of CCS technologies.

Accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide capture and storage Within the United States electric utility industry: The impact of stabilizing at 450 PPMV and 550 PPMV

Abstract: Publisher Summary Conventional wisdom has held that stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 would likely entail the retirement of a few of the oldest, most obsolete plants in the nation each year, with the majority of emissions abatement coming from the operation of CCS-enabled power plants that were built to serve the needs of a growing economy. But according to the above analysis, following the WRE450 emissions pathway would result in the retirement of 769 plants in the space of 60 years (2005-2064), an average of 13 coal plants per year for six decades, resulting in a nearly complete decommissioning and rebuilding of the entire U.S. coal-fired fleet, with additional turnover in oil- and gas-fired generation. In either the WRE450 or WRE550 case, it is clear that the measures necessary to bring about stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 for just one sector of the U.S. economy, the electric utility sector, will require a massive effort on the part of industrial and public entities. Even if such a large-scale deployment of CCS within the U.S. electric power sector were to be undertaken, it must be coupled with similar aggressive emissions strategies in all economic sectors and in all nations to have the desired impact of bringing about stabilized atmospheric concentrations of CO2.

Regional differences in carbon dioxide capture and storage markets within the United States

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter presents a study on integrated CO 2 capture, transport, and storage cost curves for three distinct regions of the United States: West Texas, the Ohio River Valley, and the Southeastern United States. The study assembled and refined a geospatial and techno-economic database of over 2,000 stationary, anthropogenic North American sources of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) accounting for over 4 gigatonnes of annual CO 2 emissions. These point sources produce CO 2 emissions streams that range from 3 to 99% purity by volume, thus implying that there are numerous possible prices for producing pipeline-quality CO 2 from these point sources. The study also collected available data on candidate geologic reservoirs in the United States and Canada, and developed and employed a methodology for estimating the effective storage capacities of these deep saline formations, enhanced oil recovery plays, gas reservoirs, and coal basins. Results indicate a large and variably distributed North American geologic CO 2 storage capacity of at least 3,800 gigatonnes of CO 2 .

Finding a way: The potential for adoption and diffusion of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration technologies

Abstract: Publisher Summary Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies face formidable technical barriers. But just as formidable are the implementation issues that must be addressed. CCS developers should exploit existing structural opportunities for innovation of electric power systems and current weaknesses in the systems, rather than trusting that “technology will find a way.” Essential aspects of the diffusion process are the policy reform, technological innovation, managerial improvement, financial resources, and social acceptance/cultural knowledge. The diffusion process is nonlinear and highly interactive; thus, efforts in all areas need the coordination of network links to create a pathway to successful diffusion. Success in technology diffusion is never assured. However, careful attention to the essential elements of diffusion and to the creation of niches in these elements can greatly increase the chances of success.