Showing papers in "Economics of Planning in 2018"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argued for the increase in government expenditure on education and health to examine the possibility of achieving inclusive growth and employed the financing gap model to estimate the potential growth in GDP per capita that is accruable to the economy if government use natural resource rent to finance increase in expenditure of education and Health.
Abstract: This paper seeks to achieve two objectives. First, we argued for the increase in government expenditure on education and health to examine the possibility of achieving inclusive growth. Second, financing gap model was employed to estimate the potential growth in GDP per capita that is accruable to the economy if government use natural resource rent to finance increase in expenditure of education and health. Relying on dataset for 18 SSA countries, among the results obtained showed that both government expenditures are found to be significant for explaining growth in SSA. However, augmenting health expenditure with natural resource appears to be more significant for making growth process inclusive. Also, the results of the simulation exercise indicate that increasing government expenditure on health would increase GDP per capita growth by over 3.1 %. The policy implication of this is drawn based upon the results obtained.
65 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the effects of oil price shocks on the stock market returns of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries using quantile regression analysis and found that stock market performance is affected by stock market conditions.
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of oil price shocks on the stock market returns of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The empirical method used is quantile regression analysis. In addition, we allow for structural breaks and asymmetry by differentiating between positive and negative oil price changes. Unlike OLS analysis, quantile regression allows the coefficient estimates to vary throughout the distribution of the dependent variable, which provides a complete picture of the relationship between the explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Our results suggest that the coefficient estimates have not been constant throughout the distribution of stock returns; that oil price shocks have asymmetrical effects on stock returns; and that the effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns are affected by stock market conditions. Overall, the results suggest that rising oil prices increase stock returns only when stock markets are bullish (high quantiles) and normal (medium quantiles), and that falling oil prices lower stock returns only when stock markets are bearish (low quantiles) and normal (medium quantiles). This suggests that oil and stock markets are more likely to boom together or crash together.
49 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper used two standard proxies for financial development, namely, domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of GDP, and money and quasi money as % of GDP; annual percentage change in real GDP per capita to proxy economic growth; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction.
Abstract: Poverty has remained one of the prominent challenges of humanity. Different solutions have been suggested to curb poverty. Economic growth and financial development are two such crucial tools for overcoming poverty, as frequently pointed out by economists. These tools work through the so-called trickle-down hypothesis, which contends that a well-functioning financial system would enhance poverty reduction by promoting economic growth. One country that appears to have manifested this hypothesis is China. However, the empirical test of the trickle-down hypothesis for China is scant. In addition, most of the existing studies have failed to account for regime-shift in parameters or structural breaks. This paper attempts to fill this void by testing the trickle-down hypothesis for China during the period 1985–2014. We utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of GDP, and money and quasi money as percentage of GDP; annual percentage change in real GDP per capita to proxy economic growth; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth. By accounting for structural breaks in our empirical specifications, we found overwhelming support for the trickle-down hypothesis at the national level. That is, we found financial development to cause economic growth, which in turn causes poverty reduction in China at the national level. This has important policy implications.
44 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the relationship between institutional quality and tertiary human capital and found that institutional quality is complementary to tertiary capital in promoting the relative growth of advanced manufacturing.
Abstract: The tendency for human capital to accumulate and for institutional quality to improve as countries develop is well documented. This paper investigates the association of these changes with the evolution of industrial structure toward greater manufacturing sophistication. The empirical analysis is based on a newly constructed panel dataset for 15 industrial categories in 92 countries over the period 1970–2010. The results suggest that the extent to which increased tertiary human capital promotes industrial upgrading is contingent on the level of institutional quality, as measured by an index over size of government, legal structure, access to sound money, freedom to trade and market regulations. Institutional quality is found to be complementary to tertiary human capital in promoting the relative growth of advanced manufacturing.
38 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors employ a bank-level panel data set over the period 2008-2012 to measure banking efficiency in a two-stage procedure, in the first stage, they use the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to estimate technical, pure technical and scale bank efficiency.
Abstract: The degree of banking efficiency is of key importance as this has significant implication on the stability of financial systems and ultimately impacts on an economy. In this paper, we extend the existing literature by measuring the degree of bank efficiency in ten frontier African countries. We also attempt to analyse the determinants of banking efficiency in the sample countries. We employ a bank-level panel data set over the period 2008–2012 to measure banking efficiency in a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we use the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to estimate technical, pure technical and scale bank efficiency. In the second stage, we use Simar and Wilson (J Econom 136:31–64, 2007) truncated bootstrapping approach to analyse the determinants of banking efficiency. The results of our analysis show that, to a greater extent, banks in the countries studied have efficient banking sectors. The results of truncated regression indicate that bank size is negatively related to banking sector efficiency while the degree of risk is positively related bank efficiency. Overall, the present study provides empirical information that may be used to guide future financial reform policies in the Frontier African countries.
34 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the effect of changes in the real effective value of lira has asymmetric effects on Turkish domestic production, both in the short run and in the long run, and they find that both lira depreciation and lira appreciation have expansionary effects on domestic production.
Abstract: A few studies in the literature have used linear models to assess the impact of changes in the value of lira on Turkish domestic production. They have found no significant long-run effects. In this paper we separate lira appreciations from depreciations and engage in asymmetry analysis. Since the procedure requires using nonlinear models, we rely upon Shin et al.’s (Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: econometric methods and applications. Springer, New York, pp 281–314, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach and discover that indeed, the effects of changes in the real effective value of lira have asymmetric effects, both in the short run as well as in the long run. Indeed, in the long run we find that both lira depreciation and lira appreciation to have expansionary effects on domestic production in Turkey.
29 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the nexus between tourism, exchange rate and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period 1980-2014 using the augmented Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65-94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure.
Abstract: We explore the nexus between tourism, exchange rate and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period 1980–2014. Using the augmented Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure whilst accounting for structural breaks using Bai and Perron (J Appl Econ 18(1):1–22, 2003) multiple break tests, the short-run and long-run association and impacts are examined. The results confirm the presence of a long-run association between tourism receipts (% of GDP), exchange rate, capital per worker and output per worker. The regression results show a 1% increase in tourism receipts results in a 0.03 and 0.06% increase in output per worker in the short-run and long-run, respectively. A unidirectional causality is noted from tourism to output per worker; from exchange rate to output per worker and capital per worker; and from output to capital, in per worker terms. Finally, we note that although structural breaks periods have negative association with economic growth, they are not statistically significant.
20 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined whether changes in nominal oil prices (Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)) affect the stock market returns in the context of an emerging market framework.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine whether changes in nominal oil prices (Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)) affect the stock market returns in the context of an emerging market framework. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach of cointegration is used to test for the long run relation between the two variables, where the daily stock market index return is calculated using the first difference in the natural logarithms of stock market index. Further, we test for the stability of the cointegration relationship by examining the sensitivity analysis where diagnostic tests for serial correlation (namely the Breusch–Godfrey serial correlations LM test) and cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) are employed. Using daily data from January 3, 2000 to December 9, 2015, the findings suggest that there is long run integration between oil prices and stock returns series in which the daily oil price shocks have a negative impact on stock returns. The highly significant error correction coefficient indicates high rate of convergence to equilibrium. In addition, the Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66(2):225–250, 1995) Granger non‐causality test indicates significant bidirectional causality between stock market returns and Brent nominal oil price, meanwhile there is unidirectional causality running from WTI oil price to stock market returns. These findings are, up to some extent, meaningful for investors, portfolio managers and policy makers.
13 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of financial development on important development outcomes like transparency has been investigated using several estimation strategies, and the results confirm that greater financial development enhances transparency, and that strong financial institutions imply an improved and transparent banking system, better corporate governance, ease of accessing credit, greater availability of information and best practices in investment protection.
Abstract: A substantial strand of literature unambiguously established the importance of financial development for economic growth. Relatively less attention has been paid to the impact that financial development of a country can have on important development outcomes like transparency. As established by existing research, strong financial institutions in a country would imply an improved and transparent banking system, better corporate governance, ease of accessing credit, greater availability of information and best practices in investment protection. All these should theoretically promise a more transparent economic system. Our empirical findings confirm this. Using several estimation strategies, our results confirm that greater financial development enhances transparency.
12 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the relative contribution of technological change, technological catch-up and capital deepening as drivers of labor productivity growth in 14 transition economies during the period 2000-2012.
Abstract: This study investigates the relative contribution of technological change, technological catch-up and capital deepening as drivers of labor productivity growth in 14 transition economies during the period 2000–2012. In addition, the study extends the usual decomposition of labor productivity growth by encompassing the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity growth in transition economies. To illustrate the relative contribution of FDI as a driver of labor productivity growth, we present a simple theoretical model that augments Kohli [Labour productivity vs. total factor productivity. IFC Bulletin 20 (April), Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, International Statistical Institute, 2005] and Grosskopf et al. (Aggregation, efficiency, and measurement, Springer, New York, pp 97–116, 2007) decomposition of the labor productivity. The insights derived in this model provide an underpinning to the empirical analysis in this study. Using Blundell–Bond dynamic panel General Method of Moments estimators, the main finding of dynamic panel data regressions shows that technological catch-up, technological change, and human development level, trade and demographic of population ageing are the main factors that affect labor productivity growth in transition countries. Furthermore, the findings of dynamic panel data regressions show insignificant positive impact of FDI on productivity growth in transition economies. One explanation is that the 14 transition economies that are included in this study do not reach a minimum human development threshold level.
7 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a model for the restructuring of national economies for the purpose of achieving optimal growth under conditions of decreased energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is discussed, and a comparative analysis of the economies of the United States and China, including opportunities for cooperative restructuring, serves as a case study.
Abstract: This paper discusses a model for the restructuring of national economies for the purpose of achieving optimal growth under conditions of decreased energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The discussion combines input–output and factorial-decomposition models, and applies projected gradient and factor analysis to find the optimal structural changes that serve all three goals. A comparative analysis of the economies of the United States and China, including opportunities for cooperative restructuring, serves as a case study.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the hypothesis that corruption in a country negatively influences the macroeconomy through an increase in the country-specific interest rate (interest rate shock) and investigate the relationship between the corruption level and macroeconomic contribution of the interest rate shocks.
Abstract: We examine the hypothesis that corruption in a country negatively influences the macroeconomy through an increase in the country-specific interest rate (interest rate shock). An empirical study estimated the contribution of the interest rate shocks to the variance in output growth at 5.1% in Mexico within the framework of stochastic growth models for small open economies. We replicate this study with the same dataset and investigate which parameters affect the contribution of the interest rate shocks to business cycles. Then, we estimate the same model for different emerging economies to investigate the relationship between the corruption level and macroeconomic contribution of the interest rate shocks. For this purpose, we use Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) to measure the corruption level. Finally, we investigate the correlation between the CPI and the estimated series of the interest rate shock. Our findings are as follows. First, the average size of the interest rate shocks is positively associated with the contribution of these shocks to the variability of output growth. Second, the average size of the interest rate shocks is also positively associated with the corruption level. Third, the estimated interest rate shock and the corruption level are positively correlated with each other. As we treat the corruption level as an exogenous variable in the model, these findings lead us to accept the hypothesis. The “Appendix” further clarifies a well-known hypothesis that the cycle is the trend in an emerging economy.
TL;DR: In this paper, a number of noteworthy innovations can be used to test the hedge and safe haven properties of Chinese stocks against stocks from four East Asian countries commonly referred to as the Asian Tigers.
Abstract: This paper presents a number of noteworthy innovations that can be used to test the hedge and safe haven properties of Chinese stocks against stocks from four East Asian countries commonly referred to as the Asian Tigers. First and foremost, the hedge property of Chinese stocks was tested at different frequencies. Secondly, based on assertions of the Fractal Market Hypothesis, for the first time (to the best of our knowledge), turbulent periods in stock markets were identified by estimating the wavelet power spectra of stock returns. Thirdly, the safe haven property of stocks was analysed by estimating their coherence and phase angle during the identified turbulent periods. It is inferred that Chinese stocks can be used as both a weak hedge as well as weak safe haven against stocks of the Asian Tigers.
TL;DR: Using a recently developed stochastic Translog production function frontier model, technical inefficiency, technological progress and returns to scale are examined during Russia's 1998-2007 cyclical expansion at the branch level including both the market and non-market economy as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Using a recently developed stochastic Translog production function frontier model, technical inefficiency, technological progress and returns to scale are examined during Russia’s 1998–2007 cyclical expansion at the branch level including both the market and non-market economy. The service sector plus high skill-intensive goods production is shown to be relatively more efficient than traditional Soviet era goods sectors. Technical efficiency decreases markedly over the expansion while technological progress is quite high (23 %) suggesting an expanding frontier leaving many branches behind as the economy adjusts away from the early transition era. Much greater attention to human capital policies are suggested to foster intensive growth in an environment of low oil and gas prices.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors revisited the catching-up hypothesis among the 29 transition countries using the time series approach to investigate income convergence, and proposed a model which specifies a trend function incorporating both sharp and smooth breaks using dummy variables and Fourier functions, respectively.
Abstract: This paper revisits the catching-up hypothesis among the 29 transition countries using the time series approach to investigate income convergence. In this study, we propose a model which specifies a trend function incorporating both sharp and smooth breaks using dummy variables and Fourier functions, respectively. Our empirical results indicate that two convergence clubs are forming among the transition countries and one club is among the rich and the other club is among the poor countries, where most middle income countries will disappear and move into one of the two clubs. Also, our results indicate that the 1980s was an ominous decade for growth in the transition countries with income in most diverging from the USA. With recovery in the 1990s, we find that in the 2000s income per capita in most of these countries was catching up toward the USA.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from the view point of the generalized purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area theory.
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from the view point of the generalized purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique. The findings from this study confirm that GPPP holds among SADC member countries included in this study on account of cointegration and stationarity in real exchange rate series. South African rand normalized long run beta coefficients of all the real exchange rates are below one except in the case of the Mauritian rupee and all bear negative signs except in the case of the Angolan New Kwanza and Mauritian rupee. This is evidence that supports monetary union in the region except for Angola and Mauritius. Moreover, the panel cointegration tests also confirm the cointegration among real exchange rate series of SADC countries. However, the absolute magnitudes of the short run adjustment coefficients of SADC countries’ real exchange rates are low and bear positive signs in some cases. This finding implies that the observed slow speed of adjustment for (log) real exchange rate of SADC member states might constrain the effectiveness of stabilization policies in the wake of external shocks, rendering SADC countries vulnerable to macroeconomic instability in the region. This result has important policy implications for the proposed monetary union in SADC.