Showing papers in "European Journal of Population-revue Europeenne De Demographie in 2000"
TL;DR: For example, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing during the last two decades as mentioned in this paper, and a period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followe...
Abstract: During the latest two decades, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing. A period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followe ...
300 citations
TL;DR: It is asserted that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labour will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary.
Abstract: The paper examines, in respect of twelve Western European countries over a period of twenty years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labour. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labour market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, we may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labour will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labour. We deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalisation on the main determinants of international migration of labour.
73 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, three indicators of fertility are investigated: frequency of birth in 1993, expected number of children, and desired number ofchildren, which are linked to 28 background characteristics, including marital status, ethnicity, level of education, housing condition, and income level.
Abstract: Between 1989 and 1993, the total fertility rate inRussia dropped from 2.01 to 1.38, a fall ofunprecedented size in peacetime. The more commonexplanation asserts that the fertility decrease is thepopulation's response to the socio-economic crisisoccurring in the country. The alternative hypothesisstates that the fertility decrease is just acontinuation of the long-term trend, while the crisishas accelerated this process. On the basis ofindividual data obtained in the 1994 microcensus,which involved 5 per cent of Russia's population, thispaper attempts to find arguments for and against eachof the two hypotheses The analysis is based onquestionnaires of 798 thousand women born between 1959and 1975. Three indicators of fertility areinvestigated: frequency of birth in 1993, expectednumber of children, and desired number of children.These indicators are linked to 28 backgroundcharacteristics, including marital status, number ofchildren ever born, ethnicity, level of education,housing condition, and income level. The data do notreveal essential fertility differentiation by economicstatus, which would be present of the first hypothesiswere right. At the same time, a clear connection isfound between the frequency of births in 1993 and suchsocio-cultural markers as living in town orcountryside, ethnicity, and the desired number ofchildren. In addition, 1993 fertility actuallyconforms to women's opinions about the number ofchildren they intend to have. These results cast doubton the hypothesis that the economic crisis is the mainand only cause of the recent fertility decrease inRussia.
69 citations
TL;DR: This paper discusses and applies machine learning techniques, using ideas from a core research area in the artificial intelligence literature to analyse simultaneously timing, sequencing, and quantum of life course events from a comparative perspective.
Abstract: In this paper we discuss and apply machine learning techniques, using ideas from a core research area in the artificial intelligence literature to analyse simultaneously timing, sequencing, and quantum of life course events from a comparative perspective. We outline the need for techniques which allow the adoption of a holistic approach to life course analysis, illustrating the specific case of the transition to adulthood. We briefly introduce machine learning algorithms to build decision trees and rule sets and then apply such algorithms to delineate the key features which distinguish Austrian and Italian pathways to adulthood, using Fertility and Family Survey data. The key role of sequencing and synchronization between events emerges clearly from the analysis.
61 citations
TL;DR: An increasing proportion of today's young children in Britain are likely to experience the changes, tensions and strains which life inlone-parent families and stepfamilies often entails.
Abstract: We investigate the lifetime incidence and duration oflone motherhood and stepfamilies in Great Britainusing both retrospective and panel informationcontained in the British Household Panel Survey,1991–1995. We find that about 40 per cent of motherswill spend some time as a lone-parent. The duration oflone parenthood is often short, one-half remaininglone-mothers for 4.6 years or less. Aboutthree-fourths of these lone-mothers will form astepfamily, with 80 per cent of these stepfamiliesbeing started by cohabitation and 85 percent followingthe dissolution of a union. Stepfamilies are not verystable: over one-quarter dissolve within one year.Thus, an increasing proportion of today's youngchildren in Britain are likely to experience thechanges, tensions and strains which life inlone-parent families and stepfamilies often entails.The increasing complexity of inter-householdrelationships between children and parents hasimportant implications for the relevance oftheoretical views of the operation of the family putforward by social researchers.
52 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the validity of aggregate and individual fertility intentions was evaluated on the basis of data collected in the 1997 fertility study in theGreater Athens area, in which a sub-sample of women previously interviewed in the 1983 National Fertility Survey wereinterviewed again, and the main finding is that fertility intentions slightly overestimate ultimate family size.
Abstract: On the basis of data collected in the 1997 fertility study in theGreater Athens area, in which a sub-sample of women previouslyinterviewed in the 1983 National Fertility Survey wereinterviewed again, the validity of aggregate and individualfertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding is thatfertility intentions slightly overestimate ultimate family size.Moreover, higher expectations are associated with higher`transition rates' towards having children and to shorter birthintervals for all parities.
52 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the consequences of projected changes in Italy's birth and death rates on the composition of kin groups using microsimulation techniques, using a startingpopulation taken from the 1994 "Indagine Multiscoposulle Famiglie" survey, and projected rates of mortality and fertility by age and parity produced by the Italian Institute of Statistics.
Abstract: Among the closely watched demographic trends of thelate 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertilityrates throughout much of the world. Italy presents aparticularly interesting case for study: in 1960,Italy's TFR was 2.41, whereas by 1995 it had fallen to1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050Italy will be the second oldest country in the world,with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older per person under 15years of age. Besides overall population ageing,another implication of sustained low fertility issmaller families and kin groups. We investigate theconsequences of projected changes in Italy's birth anddeath rates on the composition of kin groups usingmicrosimulation techniques. Using a startingpopulation taken from the 1994 ``Indagine Multiscoposulle Famiglie'' survey, and projected rates ofmortality and fertility by age and parity produced bythe Italian Institute of Statistics, we simulate thepath of kin-group patterns in Italy during the period1994–2050. While we reproduce the aggregate populationpatterns found in official projections, we conduct ourestimates at the ``micro'' level, keeping track of therelationships between individuals that underlie kingroup patterns. We show the effects of the demographictrends on the existence of daughters and sons forolder mothers, on the number of sisters and brotherswith whom an adult woman could share theresponsibilities of caring an elderly mother, and theeffect of the joint action of the increase inlongevity and the mean age at fertility on theproportion of adult women with a living mother.
48 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a modelling procedure for complex, dynamic household data structures where households change composition over time is proposed for multilevel multiple membership models and their application is discussed with an example.
Abstract: A modelling procedure is proposed for complex, dynamic household data structures where households change composition over time. Multilevel multiple membership models are presented for such data and their application is discussed with an example.
43 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the subsequent fertility of British women who have experienced the dissolution of their first marriage in recent decades and found that a women's age and her repartnering status were the factors most strongly associated with the probability of a post-dissolution conception.
Abstract: This paper investigates the subsequent fertility of British women who have experienced the dissolution of their first marriage in recent decades. Data for 7739 women from the 1990–1995 General Household Surveys are used to examine the socio-demographic factors associated with experiencing a post-dissolution birth. Just under one half of women who had experienced marital dissolution went on to experience a conception within twelve years. A women's age and her repartnering status are shown to be the factors most strongly associated with the probability of a post-dissolution conception. The age of a woman's youngest child is found to be more strongly associated with her likelihood of experiencing a conception than her parity at marital dissolution.
39 citations
TL;DR: A multivariate ARIMA model is combined with a Gammacurve to predict confidence intervals for age-specificbirth rates by one-year age groups in Norway, suggesting that the margin between high and low fertility variants in officialpopulation forecasts for many Western countries are too narrow.
Abstract: A multivariate ARIMA model is combined with a Gamma curve to predict confidence intervals for age-specific birth rates by one-year age groups. The method is applied to observed age-specific births in Norway between 1900 and 1995, and predictive intervals are computed for each year up to 2050. The predicted two-thirds confidence intervals for Total Fertility (TF) around 2010 agree well with TF errors in old population forecasts made by Statistics Norway. The method gives useful predictions for age-specific fertility up to the years 2020-2030. For later years, the intervals become too wide. Methods which do not take account of estimation errors in the ARIMA model coefficients underestimate the uncertainty for future TF values. The findings suggest that the margin between high and low fertility variants in official population forecasts for many Western countries are too narrow.
39 citations
TL;DR: A Bayesian random effects approach is used is used to model differential changes in suicide by borough and time over a 16 year period, 1979–94, to represent the changing impact on suicide of socio-economic factors such as social deprivation.
Abstract: A significant fall in suicide mortality relative to England and Wales levels has occurred in London though with wide variation between its 33 constituent boroughs in the extent of mortality reduction. A Bayesian random effects approach is used is to model differential changes in suicide by borough and time over a 16 year period, 1979-94. Of particular concern in such modelling are persistent differences between boroughs in suicide risk (temporal correlation) and spatial clustering in relative risk. It is also important to represent the changing impact on suicide of socio-economic factors such as social deprivation. The data used are defined by deaths through de-jure suicide (ICD9 categories E950-E959) and those through undetermined injury, whether accidental or purposely inflicted (ICD E980-E989).
TL;DR: Fertility responses in the year of a priceshock come to dominate those in theyear following, suggesting a shift from contraception to abortion aseconomic and social conditions apparently worsened and strategies of control intensified.
Abstract: Fertility responded negatively to grain insufficiency(proxied by grain price increases), and mortality respondedpositively in Croatia-Slavonia-Srem in the 18thand 19th centuries, as in most of Europe. Shiftsin the intensity and timing of these responsesoccurred over time as social and economic structureschanged. Shifts in the elasticity of fertility withrespect to grain supply inversely mimic and lagchanges in the elasticity of mortality. Both appear tobe induced by increasing land shortage, the collapseof feudalism, and differences in the patterns ofadjustment to post-feudal conditions among former civiland military serfs. Generally, responses are strongerfor civil and former civil serfs, who may have been inless favourable economic circumstances than themilitary. Fertility responses in the year of a priceshock come to dominate those in the year following,suggesting a shift from contraception to abortion aseconomic and social conditions apparently worsened andstrategies of control intensified. Analysis of monthlyresponses supports the conjecture based on the annualresponses. The shift to the preventive check and strength of thepreventive check in the same year as the price shockis unusual in Europe and beyond. Analysis is based on25 parishes and employs lagged annual and monthly timeseries analysis with corrections for autocorrelation,in combination with ethnographic and historical data.
TL;DR: The results lend support to the detachment hypothesis while indicating a strong anti-natalimpact of urban residence, and rural-rural temporary migrants have the highest fertility among all groupsexamined.
Abstract: This paper expands themigration-fertility linkage literature by examiningthe fertility impact of temporary migration inHubei, China. The central hypothesis is thattemporary migration affects migrants' fertilitythrough a detachment process: The separation oftemporary migrants' actual residence from their de jure residence creates a loophole in family planningadministration, weakening the social control overtheir fertility. The analysis of annualorder-specific births since 1979 suggests thattemporary migrants exhibit significantly higherprobabilities of having a second birth thanpermanent migrants and non-migrants once type ofresidence is controlled for; rural-rural temporarymigrants have the highest fertility among all groupsexamined. The results lend support to the detachmenthypothesis while indicating a strong anti-natalimpact of urban residence. Rural-urban temporarymigrants are not the ones to blame for increases inout-planning births in contemporary China, but theirfertility would have been lower if there had been nodetachment. Rural-rural temporary migrants areactually the escapees of the one-child-per-familypolicy.
TL;DR: Findings indicate that the contraceptive choices of religious women are determined largely byconsiderations unrelated to religious doctrine, including the suitability of specific methods to fertility control needs, peer influence, and other cultural effects.
Abstract: The primary purpose of this paper is to explore therelationship between religiosity and contraceptivemethod choice, among users of contraception. Weanalyze a representative sample of 1,751 married urbanIsraeli Jewish women interviewed in 1987–1988. Ourfindings indicate that the contraceptive choices ofreligious women are determined largely byconsiderations unrelated to religious doctrine. Acombination of factors, including the suitability ofspecific methods to fertility control needs, peerinfluences, and other cultural effects, appear tomodify the acceptance and application of a particularreligious theology.
TL;DR: It is argued that the relationship between socioeconomic variables and abortion is mediated by a variety of external and macro-level factors including socialnorms, the availability of contraceptive technology, and laws governing access to abortion.
Abstract: This study uses data from the 1974-75 Israel Fertility Survey and the 1987-88 Study of Fertility and Family Formation to examine the changing determinants of abortion among Jewish women in Israel. Over the course of socioeconomic development, some economic and cultural variables (e.g., education, employment, and ethnicity) lose their explanatory power whereas others become increasingly important for understanding variation in the practice of abortion. This article argues that the relationship between these variables and abortion is mediated by a variety of external and macro-level factors including social norms, the availability of contraceptive technology, and laws governing access to abortion.