Showing papers in "Foreign Affairs in 1974"

The "Invisible Blockade" and the Overthrow of Allende

Abstract: A STRIKING aspect of the world reaction to the military coup that overthrew Salvador Allende as President of Chile in September 1973 has been the widespread assump tion that the ultimate responsibility for the tragic destruction of Chilean democracy lay with the United States. In a few quarters, the charge includes an accusation of secret U.S. participation in the coup. However, a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, headed by Senator Gale McGee, has just investigated this accusation and concluded that there is no evi dence of any U.S. role whatever. More commonly, however, the bill of particulars relies on what President Allende himself, speaking before the United Na tions in December 1972, called the "invisible financial and eco nomic blockade" exercised by the United States against his gov ernment. Articles taking this line have appeared, for example, in The Washington Post, the National Catholic Reporter and The New York Review of Books. On the other hand, The Wall Street Journal has been critical of what it calls a "simplistic plot" theory espoused by members of the academic community? that "Washington by simply turning off the spigot of low-interest loans" was able to bring down Allende. Was there in fact an undeclared economic war between the Nixon administration and Salvador Allende?to use Allende's own words, "an oblique underhanded indirect form of aggres sion ... virtually imperceptible activities usually disguised with words and statements that extol the sovereignty and dignity of my country"? Did this warfare have a direct relationship to the bloody events in Santiago? A critical examination of the consid erable evidence on this subject available in this country and in Chile can help to answer these questions, and possibly suggest whether wider conclusions are in order about the relations be

Population and development: is a consensus possible?

Abstract: The debate concerning population growth and economic development cen ters on whether efforts should be specifically directed at reducing popu lation growth or on general economic and social development. Arguments supporting the former include 1) the position that unrestrained population growth is the principal cause of social problems; 2) the position that there is a demand for fertility control and thus provision of services is needed; 3) the human rights position that it is a fundamental right to determine family size to have good health and for women to control their own bodies; and 4) the population-programs-plus-d evelopment position. Positions against the need for special population programs include 1) the pronatalist position; 2) the revolutionary position; 3) the anticolonial and genocide position; 4) the position that the developed countries overconsume resources which is more detrimental than the population growth; 5) the position that the problem is one of underemployment and that a proper economy can provide employment regardless of population size; 6) the position that the problem is one of distribution of the population not of its size; 7) the position that fertility will decline when mortality declines and that provision of social security will lead to fertility declines; 8) the status-of-women position; 9) the religious-doctrine position; 10) the medical-risk-of-contraception position; 11) the holistic-development position; and 12) the social-justice position. A consensus position on population plus development programs which would include elements of the other positions seems to be the most logical means of formulating a program for action that would be acceptable to a majority of countries.

The Legitimate Claims of National Security

Abstract: NATIONAL security, once a trumpet call to the nation to man the ramparts and repel invaders, has fallen into disrepute. A victim of complications arising from the Vietnam syndrome and from its own internal contradictions, it has come to signify in many minds unreasonable military de mands, excessive defense budgets, and collusive dealings within the military-industrial complex. Watergate revelations have fueled suspicions that it may be little more than a cover for executive encroachments upon civil liberties and a free press. As Madame Roland lamented of liberty, even crimes are com mitted in its name. As one who has spent most of his adult life in activities related to national security, I am naturally distressed by the evidence of its present low estate and by indications that many citizens ques tion not only specific actions and programs under its aegis but the very essentiality of the concept. If indeed excesses have been committed in its name, that unhappy fact does not diminish one whit the very real need to protect those things which we con sider indispensable to our survival, power or well-being and hence deserving the expenditure of effort and resources to gain, retain or enjoy. The national valuables in this broad sense in clude current assets and national interests, as well as the sources of strength upon which our future as a nation depends. Some valuables are tangible and earthy; others are spiritual or intel lectual. They range widely from political assets such as the Bill of Rights, our political institutions and international friendships, to many economic assets which radiate worldwide from a highly productive domestic economy supported by rich natural re sources. It is the urgent need to protect valuables such as these which legitimizes and makes essential the role of national se curity. To provide such protection requires many forms of national power. In the present environment, our valuables are exposed not only to the traditional threats of military power but also to many dangers of nonmilitary character and origin. At home we perceive a growing trend toward factionalism which undermines

Developing countries and non-fuel minerals

Abstract: Trends in the world market place for nine major minerals, iron ore, bauxite, copper, manganese ore, lead, nickel, phosphate rock, zinc, and tin are discussed. Demand for bauxite, nickel, and phosphate rock is anticipated to increase faster than economic activity generally. Demand for iron ore, manganese ore, copper, and zinc will expand at rates of 4 to 4.5 percent per year. Lead and tin are estimated to increase at rates of 3.0 and 1.2 percent respectively. World reserves are ample for phosphate rock, iron ore, bauxite, nickel, and manganese ore; proven reserves for copper, lead, and zinc are expected to last 30 years or less; tin reserves are very low. Prices in the United States in 1973 have been very high due to currency adjustments, sharp upturns in industrial activity, and serious supply problems. Analysis of economic forces suggests that prices will drop in the following years. Developing countries' exports of these nine minerals are likely to increase from $4.8 billion in 1967-69 to $15.2 billion in 1980. Stockpiles, recycling possibilities, and substitution mitigate against the likelihood of an OPEC type cartel among mineral suppliers.

The Hard Road to World Order

Abstract: ^^1T ^ was ^e ^est ?* times, it was the worst of times" What II Dickens wrote of the last quarter of the 18th century fits the present period all too well The quest for a world structure that secures peace, advances human rights and provides the conditions for economic progress?for what is loosely called world order?has never seemed more frustrating but at the same time strangely hopeful Certainly the gap has never loomed larger between the objec tives and the capacities of the international organizations that were supposed to get mankind on the road to world order We are witnessing an outbreak of shortsighted nationalism that seems oblivious to the economic, political and moral implications of in terdependence Yet never has there been such widespread recog nition by the world's intellectual leadership of the necessity for cooperation and planning on a truly global basis, beyond country, beyond region, especially beyond social system Never has there been such an extraordinary growth in the constructive potential of transnational private organizations?not just multinational corporations but international associations of every kind in which like-minded persons around the world weave effective patterns of global action And never have we seen such an impressive ar ray of ongoing negotiations aimed at the cooperative manage ment of global problems To familiar phrases like the "popula tion explosion" and the "communications explosion" we should now add the "negotiation explosion" What is "worst" about our times for those who wish for rapid progress toward world order is clear enough The United Na tions is very far from being able to discharge the responsibilities assigned by its Charter for the maintenance of international peace and security The willingness of UN members to risk their short-term interests for the good of the community seems at the level of the frontier town in High Noon, where the citizens aban doned their lawman as soon as the outlaw was released from jail If a clear and unambiguous case of aggression came before the Security Council or General Assembly today, there would be little confidence that a majority of members would treat it as such or come to the aid of the victim The Charter concept of collec

The Economic Consequences of the Energy Crisis

Abstract: Half a century ago, Lord Keynes wrote a small book called The Economic Consequences of the Peace, outlining why the provisions of the Versailles treaty, following the First World '!ar, were unwork­ able. For at least a decade thereafter, economists debated whether the debts piled up following that conflict could in fact be repaid, as called for by the Treaty. As so often happens, history didn't follow a neat course that would allow this intellectual argument to be unequivocally resolved. But you'll recall that after several moratoriums, the issue of war debts became lost in the shuffle as the former combatants took up new positions that eventually led toward the Second World War. I cite this bit of history for a couple of reasons. First, Prime Minister Wilson of Britain the other day characterized the \"oil blow\" to most of the world's nations as \"more severe than has been caused by any event in their histories short of direct involve­ ment in war.\" And second, this particular blow, like the Versailles treaty, looks like it's going to lead to the piling up of massive debts by oil importing countries to the relatively few oil exporters, debts that could cast a pall over economic relationships for years to come.

The Philippines Without Democracy

Abstract: ON the night of September 22, 1972, President Ferdinand E. Marcos imposed martial law on the Republic of the Philippines. Mr. Marcos since has been ruling the archi pelago nation under a system that some of his aides call "constitu tional authoritarianism" and others of them call "authoritarian constitutionalism." It is, in fact, a military-supported dictator ship, albeit of a rather unrepressive variety. The President's move probably should not have come as any great surprise. There had been frequent predictions over the past several years that the Philippines' increasing political anarchy, its many social and economic problems and, some said, its Presi dent's thirst for power, made a turn toward authoritarianism likely. When that turn came much of the outside world tended to

1. Peru's Ambiguous Revolution

Abstract: The Peruvian regime is generally seen not as the typical Latin American caudillo government but rather as an essentially in stitutional effort. Although a government of force, it is widely re garded as relatively unrepressive. More important, although the nation's force for order, the military has set out to transform many basic areas of national life. Major structural reforms have affected land tenure and water rights, labor-management rela tions, the educational system, the state's role in the economy and in the communications media, the role of foreign enterprise in Peru's economy, and even fundamental concepts of economic and political relationships. Particularly noteworthy has been the regime's announced determination to move steadily away from capitalist principles by creating a new "social property" eco nomic sector (based on collective ownership of the means of production), destined to become the "predominant" mode of economic organization. And the regime has emphasized its aim to promote a drastic change in national values, to create a "new Peruvian man," one dedicated to "solidarity, not individualism." From various foreign perspectives, Peru's current process of military-directed change is regarded with hope. For many on the international Left, Peru's approach seems especially signif icant, particularly now that the "Chilean way" has been so abruptly closed. From this vantage point, Peru is contrasted with Brazil. Leftist intellectuals have lost their jobs and rights and some have suffered torture in Brazil; many of their counter parts in Peru are advising the regime or are at least sympathetic to it. Bishops in Brazil condemn their regime; Peruvian bishops generally support theirs. The Brazilian regime promotes cap italist expansion, national and foreign, while the Peruvian gov ernment announces its aim to move away from capitalism. And while Brazil ties itself ever more closely to the United States,